Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
651 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL MOVE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA TODAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE OBSERVED.

AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO
TULSA TO ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. THIS LINE HAS HAD A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SO FAR THE STRONGEST
WINDS HAVE OCCURRED IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI WITH DAMAGING WINDS
OVER 80 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH A BOWING SEGMENT. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WITHIN THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE RANGING
FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEGREES
C/KM...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY NEAR 400 M2/S2 AND SURFACE
TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR NEAR 50 KTS. DAMAGING WINDS...WHERE BOWING
SEGMENTS DEVELOP AND COLD POOLING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
THE OZARKS. HOWEVER...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHORT LIVED WEAK
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL
LINE...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE...AND WITH ANY
DISCRETE SUPERCELL THAT MIGHT FORM AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH
SUCH HIGH STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE PLACES FRONT NEAR THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR
AROUND 18Z. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IN THE THE 305-315K LAYER. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE ENDED BY 00Z.

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE OZARKS...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE OZARKS ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z KSGF/KJLN TAF PACKAGE...INTENSE SQUALL LINE HAS PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAGGING
BEHIND...NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AT 12Z. CIGS WILL COME UP SHORTLY
IN JLN AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS PUSHES THROUGH UNDER STRONG
POST FRONTAL ISENTROPIC DESCENT. SGF WILL EXPERIENCE A DROP IN
CEILINGS SHORTLY AS THE LIGHT RAIN ENDS. THIS WILL LAST ONLY A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS PUSHES THROUGH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ITSELF...EXPECT SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS TO
FILTER ACROSS THE OZARKS. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
606 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-031115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
606 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
  70MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
 AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 THROUGH NOON FRIDAY.

  DISCUSSION:

 THIS SQUALL LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
 EXCESS OF 70 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND ISOLATED
 TORNADOES. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL
 MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THIS LINE OF
 THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

 THE COLD FRONT...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WILL
 PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
 ANTICIPATED AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

 ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
 WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEED THIS MORNING ALONG
 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BARJENBRUCH

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