Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
210 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY ARE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)...

CURRENTLY...WARM FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY FROM
ROUND SPRING TO BOLIVAR TO PITTSBURG KANSAS AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF
THE FRONT...DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S. INTENSE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STORM REPORTS OF
QUARTER SIZED HAIL. LOOKING AT 850MB STREAMLINE CONVERGENCE...THE
WRF PROGS SHOW THE BEST PLACEMENT OF THIS CONVERGENCE IN RELATION
TO THE CONVECTION. OVER THE CWA...LAPS SOUNDINGS AT 18Z FOR SGF
SHOWING US BASICALLY UNCAPPED...CAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG AND
ALMOST NO CIN. SO WE ARE PRIME FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN AT ANY
TIME. ONLY INGREDIENT MISSING IS A FORCING MECHANISM TO GET
CONVECTION GOING. PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS...MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST IN OUR
GENERAL DIRECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND FOLLOWED 850MB STREAMLINE CONVERGENCE
AS THIS SEEMS TO WORK WELL FOR A SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE SITUATION
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN AT PRESENT. WRF STREAMLINES SHOW
CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND THEN OVER WESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING.
PENDING ANY ROGUE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY
KICK OFF SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...OR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
MAY MOVE IN FROM KANSAS OR OKLAHOMA...DO BELIEVE THIS IS WHEN THE
SHOW WILL GET GOING. WRF MODEL SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD 850MB JET
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO AROUND
35KTS AROUND 06Z. THIS JET SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT AND
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COMMENCE. FOLLOWING WRF GUIDANCE...PROG SOUNDING
SHOWING PWATS INCREASING FROM 1.2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 1.5
INCHES BY THURSDAY MORNING. LONG...SKINNY CAPE PRFILE SUGGESTS
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. SO...THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
RULING OUT SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL...DO BELIEVE THE LARGEST THREAT
IS GOING TO BE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ALONG
THE WARM FRONT.

HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MID MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. USING
HPC QPFS...LOOKING AT PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MAYBE 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL ZONES. WITH THESE HIGHLY EFFICIENT THUNDERSTORMS...WOULD
EXPECT SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THIS.
UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WE MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. COLD FRONT ACTUALLY
DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT UNFOLDS BEFORE
ADVERTISING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CWA IN
THE WAKE OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO MISSOURI BY SATURDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.  NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.  A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT IN THE PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING
UP OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  HAVE INTRODUCED SOME POPS FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. GIVEN NO CONVECTION GOING YET ON LOCAL RADAR...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH VCTS IN TAFS UNTIL IT GETS GOING AND THEN TRY TO
NAIL DOWN TIMING. AS MOISTURE GETS IN HERE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO DROP TO PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO...THEN
POSSIBLY IFR OVER THE SGF TERMINAL TEMPORARILY THURSDAY
MORNING.

GCC

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MOZ055-056-066>069-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
310 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-242015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
310 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
 WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. MODERATE INSTABILITY
 AND WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS
 THE MAIN THREATS FOR ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE.

 MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HEAVY
 RAINFALL AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE
 POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM VERSAILLES TO
 BRANSON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

 STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY
 MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
 NORTHERN MISSOURI.

 ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
 DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND
 ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

 THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 5 PM SOUTH AND WEST
 OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA TO CRANE TO GAINESVILLE AFTER 4 PM.
 SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED NORTH OF THIS LINE AFTER 7 PM THIS
 EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
444 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             GALENA                  36.81N 93.47W
04/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       STONE              MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL FELL BRIEFLY.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
504 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             2 E FORT LEONARD WOOD   37.71N 92.12W
04/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL AT THE GOLF COURSE ON FORT LEONARD WOOD.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
507 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HAIL             2 N REDFIELD            37.87N 94.88W
04/23/2008  E0.50 INCH       BOURBON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HALF INCH HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF REDFIELD.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
526 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
04/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       NEWTON             MO   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL

0525 PM     HAIL             NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
04/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       NEWTON             MO   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
531 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     HAIL             KIMBERLING CITY         36.63N 93.42W
04/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       STONE              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
533 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HAIL             DEVON                   37.92N  94.82W
04/23/2008  E1.75 INCH       BOURBON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

AF