River Flood Warning 44, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH SEVERE STORM/FLOODING CHANCES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME TO A CONSENSUS DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY EVENING TIME FRAME.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA
EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND EAST
TEXAS. CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET IS DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY WITH A CLOSED
LOW EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY
WITH SURFACE FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INTO THE CWA
THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KTS DEVELOPS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. PW
VALUES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 1.30 TO 1.50 IN. RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CWA INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT COULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT RISE INTO
THE 70S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 60S. MCS COULD KEEP
INSTABILITIES A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE...HOWEVER IF ANY CLEARING CAN
TAKE PLACE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1000-1200 J/KG COULD BE
REALIZED. ALL OTHER DYNAMICS ARE SUGGESTING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY. NOSE OF 120+KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE EDGING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRYLINE SHIFTS
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. WITH SIGNIFICANT 0-3
HELICITIES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MISSOURI BY MIDDAY...SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. (NAM SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER SHOWING VALUES OF
OVER 5 ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI DURING THE AFTERNOON). AGREE WITH
SPC ASSESSMENT OF MODERATE RISK FOR THE AREA IN DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

DRY SLOT MOVES INTO WESTERN CWA DURING THE EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING INTO EASTERN MISSOURI. STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO IOWA DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND WILL
REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
THE DAYTIME...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.

NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
APPROACH LEVELS FOR AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. BELIEVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FROM DEVELOPING BUT AM
BECOMING MORE CONCERNED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR MASS
STILL IN PLACE AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD BE
THE BEST NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE AND BEST
CHANCE FOR FROST.  WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.

RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AND SHOULD SEE A WARM UP BEGIN.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
MOISTURE WILL GET PUMPED INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS INTO
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THIS COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ENTER THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. LOW END MVFR OR HIGH END IFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR IN ANY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

OVERNIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TAF SITES. AS WE GET
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-
     101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
123 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-101830-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
123 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.
 DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
 EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
 AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COMPLEX OF
 THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
 MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

  DISCUSSION:

 A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL TRACK TO THE
 NORTHEAST AND INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
 THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT
 THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS.
 ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
 QUARTERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AND DAMAGING WINDS
 THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
 EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

 THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
 TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
 SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
 CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS
 IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

 HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT...WITH
 THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
 OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
 WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN AREAS THAT
 RECEIVE TRAINING OF STORMS.

 AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
 TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
 POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
 THURSDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS APPROACHES FROM THE
 SOUTHWEST. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL BECOME
 INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR IN PLACE. AS
 THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE AREA...SEVERE WEATHER IS
 EXPECTED. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED...INCLUDING
 DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
 POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED.
 THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
 DURING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
 FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
 EVENING...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
 POSSIBLE.

 LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
 THURSDAY AND WILL ADD TO THE FLOOD THREAT THROUGHOUT THE AREA. A
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
 THURSDAY EVENING.

 UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
 WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK BOTH
 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY WINDS
 AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
 NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST
 DEVELOPMENT...AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
 OVERHEAD AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER A CLEAR SKY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE/GAGAN