River Flood Warning 42, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
515 AM CDT THU APR 3 2008

...FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST ROUND OF RAINFALL AFFECTING THE OZARKS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION INCREASE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS INITIAL MINOR SHORTWAVE TRACKS OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OZARKS. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
DEVELOP AND LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS MORNING.

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE AND LIFT NORTH TODAY AS
THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT
OF THIS FRONT WILL BE A CRITICAL FACTOR TO THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT
AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND WRF MODELS DEPICT A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE THAT WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT INTO FAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. IF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS THE WARM WILL MORE LIKELY LIFT
INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI BRINGING THE WARM SECTOR AS FAR NORTH
AS HIGHWAY 60. SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES WOULD YIELD
SURFACE BASED CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. STORMS
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING
SURFACE BASED AND HIGHEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
HELICITIES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH LOW
CLOUD CONDENSATION LEVELS COULD HEIGHTEN TORNADO POTENTIAL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60. ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE FRONT
UP TO THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WILL BE PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.

DEEP MOISTURE...STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.
REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER PATTERN WILL RESUME ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND. A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY AND BRING
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH BEST FORCING WELL TO THE NORTH
AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPS OUT WEST. THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF CONVECTION. ANOTHER MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE FRONT AND INCREASING SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS NOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS THE FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SURFACE WAVE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.25 INCHES AND 850 DEWPOINTS NEAR 12 DEGREES C
WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING CELLS WILL HEIGHTEN THE
FLOOD THREAT.

IT APPEARS THAT AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND PARTICULARLY
SOUTHEAST OF A BRANSON TO EMMINENCE LINE STAND THE HIGHEST RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY SERIOUS FLOODING. WILL PLAN TO
LEAVE THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AS IS.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 1200 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS LOWER LEVELS ARE NOW SATURATED AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW CEILINGS HEADING OUR
WAY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. TIMING A LITTLE DIFFICULT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
TEMPO FORECAST FOR BOTH AIRFIELDS. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD GIVE US FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING. SO WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED BACK TO
IFR THIS EVENING.

GCC

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOZ070-071-077>083-
     088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1256 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
 WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY ALONG
 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 THROUGH TONIGHT.

 IN ADDITION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
 WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
 MISSOURI SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 NEAR AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THE
 POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
 THE WARM FRONT ALSO.

 MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL
 BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT
 WEEK. INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
 POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

MOZ098-106-031830-
SHANNON MO-OREGON MO-
1253 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHWESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN
SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 1252 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN VIEW...MOVING EAST
AT 60 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  7 MILES SOUTH OF WINONA BY 115 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF THOMASVILLE IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
123 PM CDT THU APR 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     FLOOD            3 W LANTON              36.52N 91.86W
04/03/2008                   HOWELL             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY 142 WAS CLOSED 3 MILES EAST OF LANTON DUE TO
            EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY.

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
128 PM CDT THU APR 03 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 PM     HAIL             9 N WEST PLAINS         36.86N  91.85W
04/03/2008  E0.50 INCH       HOWELL             MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
133 PM CDT THU APR 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NE GOODSON            37.73N 93.21W
04/03/2008                   POLK               MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE HIGHWAY P ALONG THE LINDLEY CREEK WAS CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
135 PM CDT THU APR 03 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 PM     HAIL             6 ESE SILOAM SPRINGS    36.76N  91.98W
04/03/2008  E0.50 INCH       HOWELL             MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
140 PM CDT THU APR 03 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 PM     HAIL             5 W WHITE CHURCH        36.85N  91.88W
04/03/2008  E0.75 INCH       HOWELL             MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH