River Flood Warning 12, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1152 AM CST MON FEB 18 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE CLOUDS IN THE COLD UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...THEN ATTENTION
TURNS TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY GIVE
GROUND TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS
ARE STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. PROGGED
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOISTURE IN THE 850-700MB LEVEL WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM TODAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. WE SHOULD
SEE A DECENT STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY...AND CANT RULE OUT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW MOST MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLOUD
COVER.

TUE SHOULD BE QUIET WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...THE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST
WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BY MIDDAY TUE. BELIEVE THE GFS MOS MAY
BE TOO WARM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF WARMING TREND...CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS BY TUE AFTERNOON.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP ALMOST DUE SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY WED MORNING WITH A
FROPA TUE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH
THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW. THE COLD AIR MASS
WILL BE ONE KEY INGREDIENT IN SETTING UP AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PICTURE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...AND AN
ACTIVE LOW LATITUDE ZONAL PATTERN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF INDIVIDUAL SYNOPTIC
FEATURES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM ALL MOVE A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW WELL OUT OVER NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY WED NIGHT AND SOMEWHERE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE THU-THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
VERSUS THE GFS FOR THE PAST TWO MODEL RUNS. THE GFS WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS A BIT MORE WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SPLIT UPPER FLOW. THE ECMWF AND GEM BOTH KEEP THE SYSTEM MORE
SEPARATED AND CLOSED OFF AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
THE ECMWF HAS HAD SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BUT STILL HAS SHOWN
A LOT OF PLAY IN THE PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE 00Z RUN
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN. OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF
WOULD SUPPORT SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA THU NIGHT. NOT READY TO
BITE OFF COMPLETELY ON THIS YET BUT BEARS WATCHING.

ALL MODEL SCENARIOS DUE POINT TO PERIODS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT UP
THE COLD DOME STARTING WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING IN SOME FORM OR
ANOTHER INTO FRI. HAVE POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...AND IT
COULD BE A MESSY AT TIMES. A WIDE VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE.

QUICK LOOK AT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BEYOND THE PRESENT FORECAST STILL
INDICATE AN ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...EXPECT TO SEE INTERMITTENT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVE OVER THE OZARKS. HAVE KEPT A
MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE GENERATING SOME
ENHANCED LIFT NEAR THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MO/KS.
AT THIS TIME EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST OF
THE AREA...SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CST MON FEB 18 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-191845-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1234 PM CST MON FEB 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
 THIS EVENING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FORT
 SCOTT KANSAS TO MARSHFIELD TO WINONA COULD SEE FROM A TRACE UP
 TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

 NUMEROUS LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL REMAIN FLOODED FROM HEAVY
 RAINFALL RECEIVED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

 FOR INFORMATION ON ROAD CONDITIONS AND CLOSURES DUE TO
 FLOODING...VISIT THE MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION WEB
 SITE AT WWW.MODOT.ORG...AND THE KANSAS DEPARTMENT OF
 TRANSPORTATION WEB SITE AT WWW.KSDOT.ORG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
 WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
 AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHARPLY COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS LATE
 TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE WIND
 CHILL INDEX READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS.

 COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
 APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...MAY LEAD TO SEVERAL
 ROUNDS  OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY