River Flood Warning 112, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING...

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM GUSTAV CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

SO FAR...RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY HAVE RANGED FROM ONE HALF TO
AN INCH NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WITH AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM 1 INCH TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE ARKANSAS BORDER WHERE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES HAVE BEEN REALIZED.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...CONTINUES TO OVERRUN A
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR SALEM TO CASSVILLE. ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OZARKS...HOURLY RAINFALL RATES HAVE RANGED UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR WHILE RATES OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
PER HOUR HAVE OCCURRED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE INCREASING GREATLY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH TRACKING THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS
OF GUSTAV NORTH INTO THE OZARKS TONIGHT AND MOVING THE LOW
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850MB LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE OZARKS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE IS OFTEN AN
INCREASE IN RAIN INTENSITY WITH TROPICAL AIRMASSES DUE TO
NOCTURNAL PROCESSES AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE NO DIFFERENT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAINS
LIKELY. FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...SOME URBAN AREAS AND
ACROSS THE WHITE...GASCONADE...BIG PINEY...NIANGUA...OSAGE AND SAC
RIVER BASINS.

THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS KICKS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV
NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND NAM DEPICT STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
ALONG THE 320K SURFACE WHICH WOULD END THE RAIN CHANCES SOONER
THAN THE GOING FORECAST. WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...JUST
THINK THAT THE MODELS ARE BEING OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN DRYING OUT
THE COLUMN.

ISOLATED BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI...PRIMARILY ON THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SIDES OF THE LOW
TRACKING THROUGH THE OZARKS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG 0 TO 1KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR 500 M2/S2 WHILE LCL HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW
WITH A SATURATED AIRMASS. WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS DEVELOP THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING
A LIMITING FACTOR.

ANGLE

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND A WET GROUND.

A BROAD AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND THE OZARKS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST DEAL
WITH RAINFALL AND PROLONGED IFR...LIKELY LIFR CONDITIONS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY A FEW TEMPORARY BREAKS IN THE ACTION. CIGS HAVE BEEN IFR AT
JLN MOST OF TODAY AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE. A SLOW DESCENT INTO
LIFR IS EXPECTED. AT SGF...CIGS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE VARIABLE
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THIS IS DUE...IN PART...TO SOME BREAKS
IN THE RAINFALL. WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED...IFR WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL BE INTIMATELY TIED TO RAINFALL THIS EVENING...BUT
AS WINDS SLACKEN A BIT TOWARDS SUNRISE THURSDAY...LIFR VIS IS
POSSIBLE. SPEAKING OF WINDS...THEY WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AS THE REMNANT LOW FROM GUSTAV MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY
MORNING.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
757 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-050100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
757 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

MODERATE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMAINS OF GUSTAV IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DRIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO SIX INCHES THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM JOPLIN TO OSCEOLA. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL CAUSE THE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...SMALL CREEKS
AND SOME URBAN AREAS. EVENTUALLY RUNOFF WILL CAUSE SHARP RISES
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ON LARGER MISSOURI OZARK RIVER BASINS
INCLUDING THE WHITE...GASCONADE...BIG PINEY...NIANGUA...OSAGE AND
SAC RIVER BASINS.

STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE ANY THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS TO
ROTATE...WITH ISOLATED WEAK SHORT LIVED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...
MAINLY OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE SMALL AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THESE STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. RESIDUAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY LAST INTO
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES
WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS ON
THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PITTSBURG               37.83N  93.30W
09/03/2008  M3.00 INCH       HICKORY            MO   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY VOLUNTEER OBSERVER HIC401. 24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
709 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NIANGUA                 37.39N  92.83W
09/03/2008  M2.21 INCH       WEBSTER            MO   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY VOLUNTEER OBSERVER WEB200. 24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
712 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLOOD            3 SSW BARNETT           38.34N  92.70W
09/03/2008                   MORGAN             MO   PUBLIC

            LOW WATER CROSSING ON HIGHWAY AA NEAR CORNET CREEK
            BEGINNING TO FLOOD. PASSENGER VEHICLE STUCK IN THIS
            AREA...ALL PASSENGERS ARE SAFE AND ACCOUNTED FOR.

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
714 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     HEAVY RAIN       12 SW AVA               36.83N 92.81W
09/03/2008  M2.08 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            2.08 STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT AND TODAY.
            SINCE 700 AM...0.83.

&&

GAGAN