Alert archive / Missouri / Flash Flood Watches in 2008

Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Springfield, MO

February 15, 200834 counties in Missouri; Bourbon County, Cherokee County, Crawford County, Kansas

NWS Springfield, MO issued this flash flood watch at Feb 15, 2008, 11:26 AM CST for 34 counties in Missouri; Bourbon County, Cherokee County, Crawford County, Kansas. It took effect at Feb 16, 2008, 6:00 PM CST. It was in force for 18 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 15, 2008, 11:26 AM CST (17:26 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 16, 2008, 6:00 PM CST
Expired
Feb 17, 2008, 12:00 PM CST
In force
18 hr
Issued by
NWS Springfield, MO
Flood severity
None
All 37 counties

Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Shannon County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 30 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2008-02-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2008-02-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 115 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
575 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
115 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
103 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS63 KSGF 151726
FFASGF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1126 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

...FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY...

...RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO MONDAY...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN THROUGH MISSOURI EARLY
SUNDAY...WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OF TWO TO THREE INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE COUPLED WITH ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WILL LEAD TO THE
FLOODING OF CREEKS AND RIVERS. OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AROUND AN
INCH OF ICE STILL REMAINS ON THE GROUND FROM THE ICE STORM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THIS WILL ADD TO THE FLOODING POTENTIAL
WHEN THIS ICE MELTS AS THE RAINFALL BEGINS. FLASH FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

AREA RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS HAVE BEEN FLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE PAST WEEK...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO
RAPID RUNOFF AND THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING. ANY RIVER...CREEK OR
STREAM HAS THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
RUNOFF. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING ARE THE AREAS IN THE
NEOSHO...SAC...JAMES AND GASCONADE RIVER BASINS OF SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. SPECIFICALLY...THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS OF TIFF
CITY...CARTHAGE...WACO...GALENA...HAZELGREEN AND JEROME HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL OF RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

YOU CAN MONITOR THIS RIVERS ON THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE.

WWW.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SGF

THOSE WITH PROPERTY AND INTERESTS IN LOW LYING OR FLOOD PRONE
AREAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-160400-
/O.NEW.KSGF.FF.A.0002.080217T0000Z-080217T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
1126 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND 
  MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST 
  KANSAS...BOURBON...CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD. IN MISSOURI...
  BARRY...BARTON...BENTON...CAMDEN...CEDAR...CHRISTIAN...DADE...
  DALLAS...DENT...DOUGLAS...GREENE...HICKORY...HOWELL...JASPER...
  LACLEDE...LAWRENCE...MARIES...MCDONALD...MILLER...MORGAN...
  NEWTON...OREGON...OZARK...PHELPS...POLK...PULASKI...SHANNON...
  ST. CLAIR...STONE...TANEY...TEXAS...VERNON...WEBSTER AND 
  WRIGHT.

* FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL
  DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
  LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL
  TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES...ACROSS THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO FOUR
  INCHES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

WISE
6 follow-up statements
000
WGUS63 KSGF 160305
FFASGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
905 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

...FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY...

...RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO MONDAY...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
INTO THE OZARKS REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE COUPLED WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS...RIVERS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS
WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS ICE COVERED.

AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE BEEN FLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
PAST WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF AND
THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING EXIST
IN THE NEOSHO...SAC...JAMES AND GASCONADE RIVER BASINS OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SPECIFICALLY...THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS OF
TIFF CITY...CARTHAGE...WACO...GALENA...HAZELGREEN AND JEROME HAVE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

YOU CAN MONITOR THIS RIVERS ON THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE.

WWW.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SGF

THOSE WITH PROPERTY AND INTERESTS IN LOW LYING OR FLOOD PRONE
AREAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161115-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.A.0002.080217T0000Z-080217T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
905 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS

* FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT THE REGION
  FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
  ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF THREE
  TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING EXCESSIVE
  RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INCREASING THE POTENTIAL
  FOR FLASH FLOODING. 

* THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
  STREAMS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN
  ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING COULD DEVELOP INCLUDING ALONG THE
  NEOSHO...SAC...JAMES AND GASCONADE RIVERS IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

FOSTER
000 
WGUS63 KSGF 161015
FFASGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
415 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY...

...RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO MONDAY...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS INTO THE MISSOURI
OZARKS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE REST OF
THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES
WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN
GENERAL...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SATURDAY
EVENING NORTHWEST OF A CASSVILLE TO ROLLA LINE.

RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE COUPLED WITH ALREADY SATURATED 
SOILS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...RIVERS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
OZARKS WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS ICE COVERED.

AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE BEEN FLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
PAST WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF AND
THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING EXIST
IN THE NEOSHO...SAC...JAMES AND GASCONADE RIVER BASINS OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SPECIFICALLY...THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS OF
TIFF CITY...CARTHAGE...WACO...GALENA...HAZELGREEN AND JEROME HAVE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

YOU CAN MONITOR THIS RIVERS ON THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE.

WWW.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SGF

THOSE WITH PROPERTY AND INTERESTS IN LOW LYING OR FLOOD PRONE
AREAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161815-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.A.0002.080217T0000Z-080217T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
415 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BOURBON...CHEROKEE AND 
  CRAWFORD. IN MISSOURI...BARRY...BARTON...BENTON...CAMDEN...
  CEDAR...CHRISTIAN...DADE...DALLAS...DENT...DOUGLAS...GREENE...
  HICKORY...HOWELL...JASPER...LACLEDE...LAWRENCE...MARIES...
  MCDONALD...MILLER...MORGAN...NEWTON...OREGON...OZARK...
  PHELPS...POLK...PULASKI...SHANNON...ST. CLAIR...STONE...
  TANEY...TEXAS...VERNON...WEBSTER AND WRIGHT.

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT THE REGION
  FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
  ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
  POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
  OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING NORTHWEST OF A CASSVILLE TO ROLLA
  LINE. THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP
  SATURDAY NIGHT INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

* THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF 
  SMALL STREAMS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE 
  AREAS. IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING COULD DEVELOP INCLUDING 
  ALONG THE NEOSHO...SAC...JAMES AND GASCONADE RIVERS IN 
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

DSA
000 
WGUS63 KSGF 161458
FFASGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
858 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY...

...RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO MONDAY...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS INTO THE MISSOURI
OZARKS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE REST OF
THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE
INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN
GENERAL...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SATURDAY
EVENING NORTHWEST OF A CASSVILLE TO ROLLA LINE.

RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE COUPLED WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS...RIVERS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS
WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS ICE COVERED.

AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE BEEN FLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
PAST WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF AND
THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING EXIST
IN THE NEOSHO...SAC...JAMES AND GASCONADE RIVER BASINS OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SPECIFICALLY...THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS OF
TIFF CITY...CARTHAGE...WACO...GALENA...HAZELGREEN AND JEROME HAVE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

YOU CAN MONITOR THESE RIVERS ON THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE.

WWW.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SGF

THOSE WITH PROPERTY AND INTERESTS IN LOW LYING OR FLOOD PRONE
AREAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-162300-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.A.0002.080217T0000Z-080217T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
858 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BOURBON...CHEROKEE AND 
  CRAWFORD. IN MISSOURI...BARRY...BARTON...BENTON...CAMDEN...
  CEDAR...CHRISTIAN...DADE...DALLAS...DENT...DOUGLAS...GREENE...
  HICKORY...HOWELL...JASPER...LACLEDE...LAWRENCE...MARIES...
  MCDONALD...MILLER...MORGAN...NEWTON...OREGON...OZARK...
  PHELPS...POLK...PULASKI...SHANNON...ST. CLAIR...STONE...
  TANEY...TEXAS...VERNON...WEBSTER AND WRIGHT.

* FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT THE REGION 
  FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 
  ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 
  POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO 
  OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING NORTHWEST OF A CASSVILLE TO ROLLA LINE. 
  THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP 
  SATURDAY NIGHT INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. 

* THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF 
  SMALL STREAMS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE 
  AREAS. IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING COULD DEVELOP INCLUDING 
  ALONG THE NEOSHO...SAC...JAMES AND GASCONADE RIVERS IN 
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

LINDENBERG
000 
WGUS63 KSGF 161812
FFASGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY...

...RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS INTO THE MISSOURI
OZARKS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE REST OF
THE WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN
GENERAL...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SATURDAY
EVENING NORTHWEST OF A CASSVILLE TO ROLLA LINE.

RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE COUPLED WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...
 ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WILL RESULT IN FLOODING
OF SMALL STREAMS...RIVERS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS
WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS ICE COVERED.

AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE BEEN FLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
PAST WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF AND
THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING EXISTS
IN THE NEOSHO...SAC...JAMES AND GASCONADE RIVER BASINS OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SPECIFICALLY...THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS OF
TIFF CITY...CARTHAGE...WACO...GALENA...HAZELGREEN AND JEROME HAVE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

YOU CAN MONITOR THESE RIVERS ON THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE.

WWW.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SGF

THOSE WITH PROPERTY AND INTERESTS IN LOW LYING OR FLOOD PRONE
AREAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-170215-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.A.0002.080217T0000Z-080217T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
1212 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BOURBON...CHEROKEE AND 
  CRAWFORD. IN MISSOURI...BARRY...BARTON...BENTON...CAMDEN...
  CEDAR...CHRISTIAN...DADE...DALLAS...DENT...DOUGLAS...GREENE...
  HICKORY...HOWELL...JASPER...LACLEDE...LAWRENCE...MARIES...
  MCDONALD...MILLER...MORGAN...NEWTON...OREGON...OZARK...
  PHELPS...POLK...PULASKI...SHANNON...ST. CLAIR...STONE...
  TANEY...TEXAS...VERNON...WEBSTER AND WRIGHT.

* FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT THE REGION
  FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
  TWO INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
  IN GENERAL...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SATURDAY
  EVENING NORTHWEST OF A CASSVILLE TO ROLLA LINE. THUNDERSTORMS
  CONTAINING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
  INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

* THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF 
  SMALL STREAMS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE 
  AREAS. IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING COULD DEVELOP INCLUDING 
  ALONG THE NEOSHO...SAC...JAMES AND GASCONADE RIVERS IN 
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

CRAMER
000 
WGUS63 KSGF 170154
FFASGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
754 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

...RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

.PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS OUT OF TEXAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND
THREE INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM CASSVILLE TO ROLLA.

THIS HEAVY RAINFALL COUPLED WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS...RIVERS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. 

AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE BEEN FLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
PAST WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF AND
THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING. 

YOU CAN MONITOR THESE RIVERS ON THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE.

WWW.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SGF

THOSE WITH PROPERTY AND INTERESTS IN LOW LYING OR FLOOD PRONE
AREAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171200-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080217T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
754 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS

* THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
  SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE COMMON
  WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
  OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST
  AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BRANSON TO ROLLA.
  THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MORE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL
  INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

* THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
  STREAMS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN
  ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING COULD DEVELOP INCLUDING ALONG THE
  NEOSHO...JAMES AND GASCONADE RIVERS IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

FOSTER
000 
WGUS63 KSGF 171751
FFASGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1151 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2008


KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171900-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080217T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
1151 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CST TODAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
MISSOURI WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CST TODAY. 

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT NOON.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING DOES CONTINUE HOWEVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. MANY LOW WATER CROSSINGS REMAIN FLOODED AND ROADS
REMAINED CLOSED DUE TO THE FLOODING. FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

REMEMBER TO NEVER DRIVE THROUGH WATER CROSSING THE ROADWAY TURN
AROUND DONT DROWN

$$

LINDENBERG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Feb 15, 5:29 AM CST, 5 hours 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 15, 5:29 AM CST, 5 hours 57 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
529 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY CONCERNS ARE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWFA TONIGHT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS INDICATE VARYING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE DEPTH THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT BY AND LARGE THEY
PAINT A MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST SCENARIO. SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR WITH LIFT OVER THE MO OZARKS TERRAIN EARLY TODAY...BUT
NOT EXPECTING A BIG IMPACT ATTM. SFC HIGH CENTER/COLD AIR DOME
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS IA TODAY AND INTO AREAS ALONG NORTH OF THE
OH VLY TONIGHT. ONE CONCERN IS PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT UP THE
COLD AIR DOME ON THE 290-300K SFCS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MO
THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST WILL SEE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
IF NOT SOME LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TODAY WITH
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.

ATTENTION TURNS TO STORM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY-SUNDAY. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
NUMERICAL MODELS NOW...WITH A STRONG 500MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF YUMA
AZ AT 0800Z PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTH TX BY 0000Z SUN...THEN
QUICKLY NORTHEAST THROUGH MO SUN MORNING. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND MAYBE JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER VERSUS THE
GFS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MORE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK WILL
PRODUCE MOSTLY RAIN...WITH MAYBE A BIT OF FREEZING PRECIP VERY
EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BRIEFLY IN SOME
AREAS SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. IN BETWEEN...THE MAIN CONCERN IS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM RECENT PRECIP...AND EVEN UNDER BETTER
CIRCUMSTANCES THE COLD GROUND AND THE LACK OF LIVE VEGETATION IN FEB
DOESNT HOLD MUCH MOISTURE ANYWAY...SO POTENTIAL FLOODING IS AN
OBVIOUS CONCERN. A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE LOW
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND AN INCH SAT NIGHT. THE
GENERAL MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF PRECIP
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE SFC LOW TRACK WITH A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER FOLLOWED THE
THE LATEST AVAILABLE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS THE HEAVIER QPF
ROUGHLY ALONG I-44...BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL FALL A BIT NORTHWEST OF THIS TRACK. IN ANY CASE...STRONG
UPPER DIFFLUENCE...DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT WILL RESULT IN SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SWATH OCCURS. WE ALREADY HAVE AN ESF/HYDRO OUTLOOK OUT
AND WILL UPDATE THAT ALONG WITH HITTING THE HWO A BIT HARDER WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO WARRANT...A
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE LIKELY DOWN THE ROAD. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRY
SLOTTING AND SOMEWHAT LOWER QPF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER
SOUTHERN MO IS MY ONLY CONCERN...BUT GIVEN ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...THIS IS ONLY A MINOR CONCERN ATTM.

FOR SUNDAY...COLD AIR WILL DRIVE BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS A BIT COLDER OVERALL VERSUS THE
GFS...BUT I HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL FALL
OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MO. GRIDS REFLECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER MID MO ON SUNDAY...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK WITH A SUBSEQUENT
WARMING TREND AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MID/LATE WEEK. DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...PROLONGED MVFR TO IFR CIGS ON TAP FOR
THE REGION. POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
TODAY...MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS POISED TO MAKE
A SURGE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT SGF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR AT JLN.
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT SGF...HOWEVER
IFR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RETURN TONIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MVFR VISIBILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TONIGHT. WITH A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...IT
LOOKS LIKE WE ARE HEADED TOWARD A PROLONGED LOW CIG/VIS EVENT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 15, 5:28 AM CST, 5 hours 58 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
528 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161130-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
528 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IMPACT FROM THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOW.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN THROUGH MISSOURI EARLY SUNDAY...WILL
BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL OF TWO TO THREE INCHES IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.
THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. IF RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE DEVELOPS...FLOODING WILL
BECOME LIKELY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 15, 3:43 PM CSTWinter Weather AdvisorySGFBarton, Dade, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald, Newton17 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Missouri, 2008Flash Flood Watches in Kansas, 2008Every flash flood watch in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.