Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 180528
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2008

KSC021-180900-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0043.000000T0000Z-080418T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHEROKEE KS-
1226 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
CHEROKEE COUNTY...

AT 1222 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN 
AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. SINCE THURSDAY 
EVENING...BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN ESTIMATED 
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
BAXTER SPRINGS...CARONA...COLUMBUS...GALENA...WEIR...SCAMMON...TREECE
AND WEST MINERAL.

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL HAVE 
INDICATED THAT LOW WATER CROSSING PRONE TO FLOODING AND OTHER ROADS 
NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS WERE WATER COVERED...SOME HAVE BEEN 
IMPASSABLE.

THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF 
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA TONIGHT.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3706 9508 3734 9508 3733 9462 3699 9462
      3699 9499 3700 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 180DEG 0KT 3712 9491

$$

GAGAN

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 180834
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2008

KSC021-180900-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0043.000000T0000Z-080418T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHEROKEE KS-
332 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
CHEROKEE COUNTY...

AT 330 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE HEAVY RAIN WHICH AFFECTED THE AREA EARLIER HAS ENDED.  GENERALLY 
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE OVERNIGHT.  

RUNOFF FROM THE EARLIER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE 
FLOODING. SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... 
BAXTER 
SPRINGS...CARONA...COLUMBUS...GALENA...WEIR...SCAMMON...TREECE AND 
WEST MINERAL.

WHILE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 
AM...A FLOOD WARNING WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3706 9508 3734 9508 3733 9462 3699 9462
      3699 9499 3700 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0832Z 180DEG 0KT 3712 9491

$$

LINDENBERG

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 180857
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
353 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2008

KSC021-180903-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0043.000000T0000Z-080418T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHEROKEE KS-
353 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 400 AM CDT FOR CHEROKEE
COUNTY...

HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. HOWEVER...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN WILL 
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
A FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR CHEROKEE
COUNTY AND REPLACES THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
IN EFFECT.

IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3706 9508 3734 9508 3733 9462 3699 9462
      3699 9499 3700 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0853Z 180DEG 0KT 3712 9491

$$

ANGLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AT EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. TO THE WEST A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
50S. ONLY SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE WAS NOTED TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. IN FACT
DEWPOINTS ARE FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS TO THE GULF COAST WHERE LOWER 60S
ARE THE HIGHEST OBSERVED VALUES. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WAS
ALSO INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER CONVECTION WAS FORMING FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI ALONG THE FRONT.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI AS WELL AS DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE STRENGTHENING LIFT AND
COOLING MID LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENT THE EXISTING CAP. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION.
ONLY MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CAPES AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG. DESPITE INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED FACTORS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINE UP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES EAST INTO THE OZARKS LATER TONIGHT. WHILE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPLY IS NOT OVERLY RICH
WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS LESS THAN 10 DEGREES C AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR AN 1.25. ALSO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
CONVECTIVE BAND WILL LIMITED RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO AS MUCH AS ONE INCH AND A HALF MAY CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS BUT SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. CLOUDS...SHOWERS
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

CLEARING WILL GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
AFFECT THE EASTERN OZARKS SATURDAY. EXPECT A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT TO SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH LOWER 70S
RETURNING TO FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

FOSTER

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
TAKE PLACE WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. GULF
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE
UPPER 50S AND EVEN LOWER 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AND
APPROACH SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM AN AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS AND THE OZARKS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT...THE TIMING OF
EJECTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE OZARKS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF SPRINGFIELD / JOPLIN AIRPORTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BOTH AIRPORTS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO
EITHER MVFR OR IFR AS THIS ACTIVITY PASSES OVER THE AIRFIELDS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH AT OR SLIGHTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

CEILING CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST AT IFR INTO TOMORROW MORNING.  AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PASS
OVERHEAD.  THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN LOW CEILING WELL INTO FRIDAY.  AREAS
OF DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL...WHICH MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON
VISIBILITIES.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
101 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-181815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
101 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
FAR WESTERN MISSOURI...OR MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER THE OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOME AREAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE
OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INITIAL INDICATIONS
ARE THAT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING MAY AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER