Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 300104
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
801 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

MOC067-091-149-153-203-213-300111-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-080330T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SHANNON MO-DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-OREGON MO-TANEY MO-OZARK MO-
801 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR HOWELL...OREGON...OZARK...
SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS...SOUTHERN SHANNON AND TANEY COUNTIES...

RESIDUAL FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WERE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS 
OZARKS AND SOUTHERN HOWELL COUNTIES FROM THE RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY. 
A FLOOD WARNING NOW REPLACES THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THESE AREAS 
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING. 

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3667 9330 3721 9110 3714 9102 3709 9103
      3708 9122 3683 9122 3682 9111 3649 9114
      3649 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 180DEG 0KT 3686 9160

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1247 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TIMING THIS AFTERNOON. AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE OZARKS LATE THIS
MORNING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH DECENT CONVERGENCE IN THE 850 TO 700 MB
LAYER. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 850 MB ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI
ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE...WITH LIGHTNING IMAGERY INDEED INDICATING
SEVERAL STRIKES NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS.

THE MAIN AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THEREFORE RAISED POPS FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
FROM BRANSON ON EAST. DID TAPER POPS BACK A BIT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER LIFT STARTS TO SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. DID DECIDE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH THE CONTINUING PRECIPITATION.

FARTHER TO THE NORTH...MINIMAL LIFT WILL ONLY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO HANG IN
ALL DAY ACROSS ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE SENT BY NOON.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING IN REGARDS TO EXPECTED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
WITH 850MB FRONT FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE IN THE
290-300K LAYER ACROSS THE OZARKS TODAY AND RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OZARKS...CLOSER TO THE 850 MB FRONT. WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

THIS SURFACE FRONT AND THE 850MB FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS THESE FEATURES LIFT NORTH INTO THE OZARKS...CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AIDED BY DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH ZONAL FLOW. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE CENTRAL OZARKS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH WARMER SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER
60S AND THE 70S. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER COULD HINDER THIS WARM
UP AND AREAS THAT REALIZE MORE SUNSHINE COULD REACH THE UPPER 70S.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS ON THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A
SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST
MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A
STRONG CAP IN PLACE DURING MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH
STRONG SHEAR. THIS CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING MOST OF THE AFTERNOON BUT BY EARLY EVENING THE CAP
WILL LIKELY HAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS AS A 850MB JET STRENGTHENS. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SCENARIO...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON MESOSCALE FEATURES FROM THE CONVECTION
EXPECTED SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ALL MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TUESDAY
MORNING. IT IS DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAT WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH FLASH FLOODING.

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH...FOR ANOTHER SUITE OF MODEL RUNS TO FURTHER REFINE THE
TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...A SLOW LOWERING OF CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KJLN AND KSGF BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER SOME
PERIODIC REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KJLN THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES TONIGHT OVER ALL OF SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.CLIMATE...

MARCH 2008 WILL BE RECORDED AS A HISTORICAL WET MONTH. THE TABLE
BELOW LISTS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED SO FAR AT EACH
STATION ALONG WITH THE CURRENT RECORD RANK AND THE RECORD MARCH
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG WITH THE YEAR.

LOCATION     MARCH PRECIP SO FAR   CURRENT RANK   MARCH RECORDS

SPRINGFIELD         8.16              5TH         9.09 1935 (1)
                                                   7.87 1990 (5)
JOPLIN              5.53              9TH         9.04 1973 (1)
                                                   5.51 1945 (9)
WEST PLAINS        10.86              1ST         9.87 2002 (1)
VICHY ROLLA         6.21              2ND         7.41 1945 (1)
                                                   6.09 1948 (2)
ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
104 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
104 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE
ARKANSAS BORDER EAST OF BRANSON THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN AND
LIFT UP AND OVER A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PENNY SIZED
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF AN INCH SOUTH OF MISSOURI
HIGHWAY 60 IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. BY LATE SUNDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING VERTICAL
WINDS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN STORM
HAZARDS NORTHWEST OF A NEOSHO TO VERSAILLES LINE. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SHEAR SUNDAY EVENING WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN MISSOURI STATE LINE INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED
MOSTLY TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF MISSOURI.

ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY. STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
A CONTINUED SEVERE STORM RISK OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...A SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA