Flash Flood Warning 167, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 072331
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

KSC021-072341-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0167.000000T0000Z-080808T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHEROKEE KS-
631 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CHEROKEE COUNTY...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3733 9507 3732 9494 3726 9478 3718 9462
      3700 9463 3700 9507

$$

FOSTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1207 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

RAIN/FLOOD CHANCES TODAY MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE...WITH MEDIUM
RANGE POPS ALSO A CONCERN.

WITH AN EYE ON NW KS TSRA...HAVE OPTED TO DROP FFA AS LOW LEVEL
JET SHOWING NO SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING PLUS HILLSBORO KS PROFILE
TRYING TO VEER AROUND. WITH THIS SAID...HAVE MAINTAINED POP
CHANCES INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA
BEFORE SURFACE HIGH NUDGES FRONT AND H8 THETA E GRADIENT SOUTHWEST
OUT OF CWA. SUBSEQUENT DRYING TO BRING PRECIP WATER DOWN TO
1.25 INCHES OVER EVEN FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY 00Z.

SHORT RANGE MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR LATE IN THE
WORKWEEK...THOUGH MODELS HANDLING MEAN EAST COAST TROF AND ENSUING
SHORT WAVES LENDS TO POOR CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO OH VALLEY...FLOW WILL RETURN TO
THE SOUTH WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH UPGLIDE TO WARRANT CHANCE
POPS ON SUNDAY. MADE FEW CHANGES BEYOND THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA IN AN AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUES TO PUSH THIS
MOISTURE AXIS TO THE SOUTH SO CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ONLY LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHEWEST CWA FOR ANOTHER COUPLE TO FEW HOURS. MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE JLN AREA AND HAS
REMAINED SOUTH OF THE SGF TODAY. WILL KEEP IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR
SHOWERS WITH VCTS WORDING IN FOR JLN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AT THE ONSET OF THE 18Z TAFS WITH PREDOMINANT P6SM AND TEMPO MVFR
VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...CIGS AT JLN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM AROUND 2500 TO 3500 FEET BEFORE THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION SLIDES MORE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN
THE TERMINALS FOR OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR...ALTHOUGH WE
ARE SEEING DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. MAY NEED
TO HAVE MVFR VISIBILITIES ADDED FOR JLN OVERNIGHT AS THEY HAD THE
MOST RAINFALL AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
106 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-081815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
106 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING...40
 MPH WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS KANSAS TO WEST BRANSON
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AT 5-10 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND ARE TRAINING OVER NEWTON...BARRY AND STONE COUNTIES. THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...COMBINED WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OVER A FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF THIS AREA. MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WINDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PRECLUDE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS BY EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INSTABILITY RETURNS TO THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB