Flash Flood Warning 155, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 270222
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
920 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

MOC009-097-109-145-209-270700-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0155.000000T0000Z-080727T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-STONE MO-NEWTON MO-BARRY MO-
920 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
JASPER...NORTHEASTERN BARRY...NORTHEASTERN NEWTON...SOUTHERN LAWRENCE
AND SOUTHERN STONE COUNTIES...

AT 915 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM COMPLEX OVER EASTERN KANSAS 
WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...BRINGING ADDITIONAL 
HEAVY RAINFALL TO ALREADY SATURATED AREAS.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE 
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR CREEKS.

LAT...LON 3653 9363 3688 9384 3699 9417 3709 9460
      3734 9462 3710 9369 3653 9332 3651 9333

$$

TERRY

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 270658
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
154 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

MOC009-097-109-145-209-270704-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0155.000000T0000Z-080727T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-STONE MO-NEWTON MO-BARRY MO-
154 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 200 AM CDT FOR 
NORTHEASTERN BARRY...NORTHEASTERN NEWTON...SOUTHERN LAWRENCE AND 
SOUTHERN STONE COUNTIES...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR JASPER COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A 
FLOOD WARNING VALID UNTIL 1000 AM FOR REPORTS OF ONGOING FLOODING IN 
RURAL EASTERN JASPER COUNTY.

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO 
RECEDE...HOWEVER SOME RESIDUAL FLOODING DOES CONTINUE OVER EASTERN 
JASPER COUNTY. 

IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3653 9363 3688 9384 3699 9417 3709 9460
      3734 9462 3710 9369 3653 9332 3651 9333

$$

DSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...

THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT MOVED INTO THE REGION OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE IN THE OZARKS FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE DOLLY WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA
TOUGH MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHEN DOLLYS REMNANTS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY VALUES FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE CONCERNS FOCUS ON A DEVELOPING MCS AND
WHETHER THE LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEGINNING STAGES OF A STORM COMPLEX NOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT THE OZARKS. FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH BRINGS THE MCS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2-3000 J/KG RANGE
AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. EXPECT STORM TO BE
STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
12C TEND TO WORK AGAINST THE STORMS.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...CONCERNS ARE HEAT
INDICES AND REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DOLLY.

THE OZARKS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 101 TO 107 DEGREE
RANGE FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL DEFINITELY
NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS IS THAT HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY THEN BECOME AN ISSUE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS THE SPREAD OF THE CURRENT MODELS IN
HANDLING THE REMNANTS. THE ECMWF PHASES DOLLY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND SHIFTS IT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING
WHILE THE GFS LINGERS DOLLY WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THEN SHUNTS THE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN IS MORE LIKELY AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO HANDEL THIS.

GFS STILL INDICATING A RETROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WOULD PLACE THE OZARKS IN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WOULD SPELL COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE
REGION AT WEEKS END. THIS WOULD BE WELCOME AFTER THE THE HEAT TO
START THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS PANS OUT AND HOPE FOR
COOLER WEATHER.

HATCH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MISSOURI SHOULD TRACK INTO THE
JLN AND SGF AIR SPACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH AIRFIELDS AS THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES
SIGNIFICANTLY.

GCC

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-272300-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
554 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF
THE
HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE WIND UP TO 60 MPH...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AS A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS MIGRATES INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING...HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
NEAR 100 DEGREES WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 THROUGH THE WEEK.

DUE TO A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE HIGHWAY
65 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORT SCOTT              37.84N 94.71W
07/26/2008                   BOURBON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN FORT SCOTT

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
658 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FORT SCOTT              37.84N 94.71W
07/26/2008                   BOURBON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED IN FORT SCOTT

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE OZARK              37.00N 93.18W
07/26/2008                   CHRISTIAN          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMBS AND BILLBOARD SIGN BLOWN DOWN

&&

MTERRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

KSZ097-MOZ077-088-270045-
CRAWFORD KS-JASPER MO-BARTON MO-
715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BARTON...EASTERN CRAWFORD AND
NORTHERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 713 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FRONTENAC TO 6 MILES
WEST OF LAMAR...MOVING SOUTH AT 8 MPH.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
725 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE NASHVILLE         37.40N 94.48W
07/26/2008                   BARTON             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER WEST BOUND LANE OF 126 HIGHWAY. MANY COUNTY
            ROADS FLOODED ALONG 126 HIGHWAY BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 71 AND
            43.

&&

GCLAYCOM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
735 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

MOZ067-078-270115-
CEDAR MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
735 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CEDAR AND ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL
815 PM CDT...

AT 733 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES EAST OF
SCHELL CITY TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF GOLDEN CITY...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF EL DORADO SPRINGS TO 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GREENFIELD. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CEDAR AND ST. CLAIR COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF EL
DORADO SPRINGS...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

ANGLE