Flash Flood Warning 152, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 270216
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
914 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

MOC057-109-270400-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080727T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAWRENCE MO-DADE MO-
914 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN DADE COUNTIES...

AT 911 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL REMAINING OVER 
THE AREA. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO OUR WEST...ANOTHER COMPLEX OF 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WAS MOVING TOWARD SOUTHWEST 
MISSOURI. AS THE RAINFALL WITH THIS STORM COMPLEX FALLS ON ALREADY 
INUNDATED AREAS...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
EVERTON AND LOCKWOOD. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN 
THE WARNED AREA THROUGH 11 PM CDT.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3741 9368 3718 9368 3727 9402 3741 9401

$$

TERRY

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 270353
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1054 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

MOC057-109-270404-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080727T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAWRENCE MO-DADE MO-
1054 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN DADE COUNTIES...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3741 9368 3718 9368 3727 9402 3741 9401

$$

TERRY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...

THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT MOVED INTO THE REGION OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE IN THE OZARKS FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE DOLLY WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA
TOUGH MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHEN DOLLYS REMNANTS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY VALUES FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE CONCERNS FOCUS ON A DEVELOPING MCS AND
WHETHER THE LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEGINNING STAGES OF A STORM COMPLEX NOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT THE OZARKS. FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH BRINGS THE MCS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2-3000 J/KG RANGE
AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. EXPECT STORM TO BE
STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
12C TEND TO WORK AGAINST THE STORMS.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...CONCERNS ARE HEAT
INDICES AND REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DOLLY.

THE OZARKS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 101 TO 107 DEGREE
RANGE FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL DEFINITELY
NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS IS THAT HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY THEN BECOME AN ISSUE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS THE SPREAD OF THE CURRENT MODELS IN
HANDLING THE REMNANTS. THE ECMWF PHASES DOLLY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND SHIFTS IT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING
WHILE THE GFS LINGERS DOLLY WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THEN SHUNTS THE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN IS MORE LIKELY AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO HANDEL THIS.

GFS STILL INDICATING A RETROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WOULD PLACE THE OZARKS IN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WOULD SPELL COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE
REGION AT WEEKS END. THIS WOULD BE WELCOME AFTER THE THE HEAT TO
START THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS PANS OUT AND HOPE FOR
COOLER WEATHER.

HATCH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE GONE WITH VCTS ONLY AT JOPLIN WHICH IS
CLOSER TO A DIFFUSE AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. THIS CHANCE IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND MIGRATING INTO THE OZARKS. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED AND TAFS AMENDED ACCORDINGLY BASED UPON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PLAINS. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE...HAVE GONE WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND LOWER
VISIBILITY AS A RESULT OF THE POTENTIAL OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND
10Z AT KSGF.

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
343 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-272045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
343 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
100 DEGREES GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 13 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO TABLE
ROCK LAKE. ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION THAT EXPERIENCES THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY RECEIVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 40 MPH CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COULD MIGRATE INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TONIGHT. IF THIS COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATES INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA...WINDS UP TO
60 MPH...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
NEAR 100 DEGREES WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 THROUGH THE WEEK.

DUE TO A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
432 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

MOZ089-094-262200-
LAWRENCE MO-DADE MO-
432 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTH CENTRAL LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN
DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 429 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LOCKWOOD...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GREENFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 9 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN DADE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF SOUTH
GREENFIELD AND PENNSBORO.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

TERRY