Flash Flood Warning 126, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 270737
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

MOC105-169-215-271100-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0126.000000T0000Z-080627T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TEXAS MO-LACLEDE MO-PULASKI MO-
236 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT FOR
EASTERN LACLEDE...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN PULASKI COUNTIES...

AT 232 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT ALTHOUGH STORMS HAD ENDED IN THE WARNING AREA...RAINFALL 
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THREE INCHES OCCURRED BETWEEN FORT LEONARD WOOD 
AND FALCON 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...RICHLAND AND ST. ROBERT.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. 
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3748 9202 3748 9233 3776 9241 3786 9241
      3786 9203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0736Z 180DEG 0KT 3769 9224

$$
TERRY

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 271059
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

MOC105-169-215-271109-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0126.000000T0000Z-080627T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TEXAS MO-LACLEDE MO-PULASKI MO-
559 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 600 AM CDT FOR EASTERN
LACLEDE...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN PULASKI COUNTIES...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3748 9202 3748 9233 3776 9241 3786 9241
      3786 9203
TIME...MOT...LOC 1059Z 180DEG 0KT 3769 9224

$$

TERRY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

STILL MONITORING SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT
THIS HOUR. TSRA ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS CONTINUES TO
FLOURISH...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
COMPRESSED A BIT THE PAST HOUR OR SO. NEARLY STATIONARY
THUNDERSTORM JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORT WOOD WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. THIS NEARLY STATIONARY STORM
APPEARS TO BE ANCHORED NEAR A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WITH
20 TO 30 KT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO IMPINGE ON THIS
BOUNDARY...THIS STORM MAY NOT MOVE ALL THAT MUCH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

JUST TO THE WEST...THE BOWING THUNDERSTORM SEGMENT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...PROBABLY SIDESWIPING FAR WESTERN CRAWFORD AND CHEROKEE
COUNTIES AFTER 200 AM. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS LINE WARRANTS A MID RANGE CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHWEST...OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS AND
NEB ALSO BEARS WATCHING. THE GENERAL BEARING ON THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN MAINLY TO THE EAST...WITH ONLY A LITTLE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT
NOTED SO FAR THIS EVENING. FORECAST PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST
SOME SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS
NECESSARY BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

MOST RECENT BATCH OF GRIDS AND PRODUCTS SENT.

GAGAN

&&

.UPDATE...

WATCHING A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS HOUR. THE
FIRST EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST MO AND THE SECOND OVER
NORTHERN INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL MO HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
INSTABILITY. MLCAPE AND SBCAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE
2000 J/KG AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
WILL LIKELY SEE THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY WANE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...THOUGH WITH A 30KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IT IS
PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER IN SOME FASHION. THERE IS
ONLY AN OUTSIDE RISK OF A SEVERE STORM WITH THIS CLUSTER.

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER KANSAS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE PROLIFIC IN
SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCTION. LARGE HAIL AND WIND HAVE BEEN COMMON
WITH A BOWING SEGMENT MOVING SOUTH. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS COMPLEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH EVEN MORE DEVELOPMENT IN NW AND W KS/NEB. PROPAGATION
VECTORS ALL SUGGEST A CONTINUED...OR EVENTUAL...SOUTHWARD PUSH TO
THIS ACTIVITY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR
WEST...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME ACTIVITY IN MY
WESTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE MCS MOVING OUT OF NEB/NW KS.

WILL ALTER POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT TO INCREASE CHANCES
OVER MY WESTERN ZONES. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE
EASTERN OZARKS...DECREASING WITH TIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WILL
ALSO TWEAK TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE
RAIN COOLED AIR WILL RESULT IN LOWS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

GAGAN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BETTER CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CLOUD COVER FROM THE
MORNING MCS HAS LEFT CENTRAL MISSOURI COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S. CURRENT LAPS DATA SHOWS SURFACE BASE CAPES ON THE ORDER
OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CIN ACROSS THE AREAS THAT HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S. LESS INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH CIN
VALUES LESS THAN -100 J/KG.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE MORNING MCS REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THESE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE
DEVELOPMENT START HERE IN THE NEXT HOUR AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WIND
SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK...SO THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH BE
PULSE IN NATURE. WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...A FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PULSE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE AT TIMES.
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING...THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST AND MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA TONIGHT. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING
THE SEVERE THREAT LIMITED. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ENOUGH
TONIGHT THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ONGOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...A
LOT LIKE WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT DRIFT INTO
THE AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...ALLOWING FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY FORM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM ONE AND THREE QUARTERS
TO TWO INCHES. THE FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH JUST LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW WATER CROSSINGS
THAT FLOOD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME SO WILL LET THE ESF EXPIRE WITH THIS
PACKAGE. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS
BORDER SATURDAY MORNING...WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY KICKS THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CANNOT
RULE OUT DISTURBANCES RIDING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
CREATING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR POPS OVER THIS TIME...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME.
DURING THE MIDDLE HALF OF WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA RETURNING BETTER CHANCES FOR POPS TO THE
AREA.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM OVER THE
MIDWEST. ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AERODROMES WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
KANSAS WILL FLIRT WITH AT LEAST JLN TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA ALSO BEAR
WATCHING AS THIS MAY MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
AT THIS JUNCTURE HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE VCTS AT JLN FOR A PORTION
OF THE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING SGF QUIET...ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE MUCH LIKE THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
738 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-280045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
738 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
 EVENING. OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND
 WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

 ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
 AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE
 WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO
 SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG
 INSTABILITY AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL
 AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
 AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
 FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
 NEAR THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS BORDER SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
 STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING GENERALLY SOUTH
 OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR NEAR THE STALLED FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
828 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

MOZ070-270200-
PULASKI MO-
828 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN PULASKI COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM
CDT...

AT 824 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DIXON...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 13 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN PULASKI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
WAYNESVILLE AND ST. ROBERT...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
916 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     HAIL             RICHLAND                37.86N 92.40W
06/26/2008  E0.25 INCH       PULASKI            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AS WELL

&&

GCLAYCOM