Winter Storm Warning 8, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
959 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RENEWING THE RISK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. A
COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY
KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE STATE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOMEWHAT
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A PAIR OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS REACHING THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WORST IS OVER...BUT WE ARE DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF
THE WOODS YET IN TERMS OF SNOW. A SURFACE LOW WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
WELL OFF THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...KEEPING COOL EAST AND THEN
NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE LOCKED IN. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL
LOW CENTER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER WRN WA
TONIGHT. SATELLITE INDICATES COOLING CLOUDTOPS OFF THE COAST AND
SOME INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE INCOMING BAND OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW COMES IN TODAY...TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL COOL...ENDING THE THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT CONTINUING FROZEN PRECIP (IE. SNOW)
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WARRANTS CONCERN...AND THE 12Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE ABOUT 1/4 TO 1/2
INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. INDEED...A SPOTTER AT NEAH BAY JUST CALLED IN AND
REPORTED SNOW WITH 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY...AND THE KUIL METAR HAD
HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME RECENTLY WITH 30-MINUTE RAINFALL OF 0.15. SO
PRECIP INTENSITIES ARE APPARENTLY THERE. WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACES FOR MOST LOCALES BUT WILL FRESHEN THE
PRODUCT SHORTLY TO INDICATE 2-4 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAY
HAVE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR THE WESTERN STRAIT AND KITSAP
PENINSULA...WHERE CONTINUATION OF EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WOULD
ENHANCE PRECIP. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO DESTABLIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT WITH THE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATE CLIMBING TO
6.5-7.5 C/KM. BY TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL WOULD BE THE
RULE...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE AFFECT OF MAKING SNOWFALL TOTALS A LOT
MORE VARIABLE.

AS THE SURFACE LOW SINKS SOUTH...DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KICK IN
ON MONDAY. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH A DRY AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE LEWIS COUNTY NEAR OUR SOUTHERN FORECASTING
BORDER.

AFTER TODAY AND TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM ON WED. EVENT MAY START AND END AS SNOW OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH A DECENT WARM SECTOR AND SOME RAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE EVENT ON WED AFTN.      HANER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXTENDED MODELS THIS MORNING. EURO RUN SHOWS A WARM UP BACK TO CLOSE
TO NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND LATER FRIDAY. THE GFS AS BRINGS A WARMER
SYSTEM IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY DRAWING COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. GFS
IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK BUT AT LEAST
AT THIS POINT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE EVEN ON THE GFS IS RAIN. WILL
SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT KEEP
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY ON. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...THE INTERIOR IS IN A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT 17Z. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING INSTANT
OCCLUSION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WHILE THE PARENT
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVES SE TOWARD THE OREGON COAST MON MORNING.
PRES GRADIENTS HAVE REMAINED OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
INTERIOR AND ALONG THE STRAIT ARE BELOW FREEZING. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL ALOFT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INCOMING INSTANT
OCCLUSION...EXPECT INCOMING PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT TERMINALS IN THE INTERIOR
SOUTH OF KNUW WILL SEE 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS AS THE OCCLUSION
MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH 20Z-05Z TIME FRAME. AREAS ALONG THE KITSAP
PENINSULA AND TO THE WEST OF PORT ANGELES WILL SEE 4-6 INCH AMOUNTS.
THE COAST WILL SEE MIXED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THRU 18Z MON WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS MON AFTERNOON.

IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT CIGS TO
OCCASIONALLY DROP TO 005 WHILE VISIBILITIES DROP TO 1/2SM AT TIMES.

KSEA...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED ONTO THE KITSAP PENINSULA AND
WILL WORK EASTWARD TO THE TERMINAL ABOUT 1930Z. THEN EXPECT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY BURSTS TO 1/2SM SN FZFG VV005
THRU 04-05Z THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DRY FROM THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DECREASING AFTER 18Z. 2-4 INCH SNOW TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE LIKELY. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT AS THE
INCOMING OCCLUSION PIVOTS THAT HIGHER SNOW TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 6
INCHES COULD OCCUR AND LAST LONGER INTO THE EVENING PER NAM12 MODEL
GUIDANCE. ALBRECHT.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENTS HAVE DECREASED...BUT EXPECT ALL WATERS TO HAVE
OCCASIONAL E/SE WINDS TO 25 KT AT THE OFFSHORE LOW DROPS SE THRU THE
WATERS. A 12-15 FT WLY SWELL WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT THRU MON.

AS THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS ONTO THE OREGON COAST MIDDAY MON WIND WILL
TURN NLY AND SOME MODERATE FRASER OUTFLOW WILL START AGAIN OVER THE
NORTH INLAND WATERS.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TUE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A STRONGER FRONT WED. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVALANCHE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INCREASING STRONG
WINDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD NEW UNSTABLE LAYERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THESE LAYERS ARE LIKELY TO BE POORLY SUPPORTED BY EXISTING
UNDERLYING SNOW. AN AVALANCHE WARNING IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY. PLEASE
SEE WWW.NWAC.US FOR DETAILS. FERBER

&&

WA...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HOOD CANAL AND THE WESTERN STRAIT.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALL REMAINING ZONES EXCEPT THE COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND AND
      HOOD CANAL.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE ENHANCED AFD PLEASE VISIT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATESTWEBAFD.HTML (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
831 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 AM     SNOW             2 S MILL CREEK          47.83N 122.21W
12/21/2008  M4.7 INCH        SNOHOMISH          WA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            4.7 INCHES NEW SNOW WITH 8 INCHES ON THE GROUND.

&&

ALBRECHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
852 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 AM     SNOW             1 E HITE CENTER         47.60N 122.83W
12/21/2008  M5.6 INCH        KITSAP             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5.6 SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWING HEAVILY AT THIS TIME.

&&

ALBRECHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
916 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 AM     SNOW             3 WSW PORT TOWNSEND     48.10N 122.84W
12/21/2008  M5.2 INCH        JEFFERSON          WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GRUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
917 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 AM     BLIZZARD         3 WNW SEKIU             48.28N 124.37W
12/21/2008                   CLALLAM            WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            10 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT DRIFTED TO 3 FEET IN PLACES
            BY 40-70 MPH WINDS. NOW SNOWING HEAVILY WITH 1/4 MILE
            VISIBILITY THOUGH WINDS ARE SE 5 AT THIS TIME.

&&

ALBRECHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
942 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     SNOW             2 WNW ANACORTES         48.50N 122.66W
12/21/2008  M2.0 INCH        SKAGIT             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION ON GROUND. WIND PROBABLY BLEW
            MORE AWAY.

0940 AM     SNOW             2 NNE PUYALLUP          47.21N 122.26W
12/21/2008  M3.5 INCH        PIERCE             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1/4 INCH OF ICE COATING THE SNOW.

&&

GRUB

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