Wind Advisory 4, NWS Seattle, WA

000 
WWUS76 KSEW 142256
NPWSEW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
256 PM PST MON JAN 14 2008

WAZ001-503-506-514-515-150000-
/O.CAN.KSEW.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-080115T0500Z/
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
256 PM PST MON JAN 14 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED FOR THE FAR NORTH INTERIOR AND THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE FAR NORTH INTERIOR AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WERE MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH OVER
WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

$$

WAZ510-150500-
/O.CON.KSEW.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-080115T0500Z/
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-
256 PM PST MON JAN 14 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
THE ADMIRALTY INLET AREA...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADMIRALTY INLET AREA UNTIL
9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS
OCCURRING ACROSS WHIDBEY ISLAND. EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT.

$$

WEATHER.GOV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST MON JAN 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH WESTERN WA
TODAY WITH RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE WA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHORT TERM FOCUS ON VIGOROUS COLD FRONT INVADING FROM
THE NW. IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW STEADY ADVANCEMENT DOWN
THE BC COAST AS SFC WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW. OFFSHORE BUOYS...EVEN
BUOY NO 5 SHOWING NLY FLOW. AND ON RADAR ALREADY SEEING SOME PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM KUIL TO KBLI.

MODELS...SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SHOWED GFS TRENDING TOWARD THE FASTER
EUROPEAN SOLUTION...AND IS PREFERRED OVER THE SLOWER NAM. THE NAM
SEEMS ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND. GFS SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SFC FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE COAST BY 18Z AND THROUGH THE INTERIOR BY 21Z.
WILL SEE A STRONG PUSH OF WESTERLIES THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AS THE KUIL TO KBLI PRES GRADIENT JUMPS TO PLUS 7.6 MB THIS
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
ACROSS ALL ZONES.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWLAND SNOW
SHOWERS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE FROPA TIMING...LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL SEE RAIN TURNING OVER TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW
DEEP COOL AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FROM 5000
FT TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET. TEMPS AT 925MB WILL HOVER AROUND -1
TO -2 C IN THE EVENING AND DOWN TO ABOUT -4 C OVERNIGHT. THICKNESS
VALUES FROM 1000-850 MB WILL ALSO DROP TO THE 1280S. GIVEN ALL
THIS...SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LIMITING FACTOR IN THE FORECAST IS ONCE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN WA WITH
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE
VERY BRIEF WITH SOME SPOTS ONLY SEEING A TRACE. HIGHS TODAY ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S WITH A MIX POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...MM5 GFS ALSO HINTING AT CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER SNOHOMISH CO THAT WILL MOVE SE IN THE EVENING. THEN AGAIN
STRONG NW WINDS OF 30-35 KTS AT 850 MB MAY ALSO FORCE ALL SHOWERS
INTO THE CASCADES. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ALL LOWLANDS...WITH LESS CHANCES COAST AS
PRECIP ENDS SOONER. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY ACCUMUALTIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER HILLS THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF PSCZ DEVELOPS.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE WAY EAST OF THE
AREA...OVER MONTANA. MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE WA COAST TUE EVENING THROUGH WED BLOCKING
ANY WET WEATHER INTO THE AREA. WILL BE DRY BUT ALSO COOLER. 33

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WA COAST WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...KEEPING
WESTERN WA DRY. THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY SAT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ROUNDS SE THROUGH CENTRAL BC. FORECAST ALREADY COVERS
THIS SO NO NEED FOR ANY TWEAKS. ENJOY THE BREAK. 33

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM CENTRAL VANCOUVER
ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWEEP ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RAPIDLY FOLLOW THE FRONT. A 2-4 HOUR BAND OF STEADY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS...MAINLY TIED TO
THE TERRAIN...AND CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PUGET SOUND AREAS. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN AROUND NIGHTFALL
(PIC9)...AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY MIX WITH OR TURN TO SNOW
BEFORE COMING TO AN END 06Z-09Z. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EAST OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND IN THE NORTH
KING/SOUTH SNOHOMISH COUNTY AREAS...BUT THE CHANCES OF ACCUMULATIONS
OF AN INCH OR MORE AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
SURFACE WINDS AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR WITH THIS
INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM. FOR A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD WITH AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MANY TERMINALS WILL SEE S/SE WINDS 18G28KT AND WINDS AT 040
WILL RISE TO SW45KT (PIC9). WIND WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT TO SW20G30KT
BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT AT KHQM...AND AROUND THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA WHERE THEY WILL COME AROUND TO 29025G35KT...HIGHER OVER THE
WATER. WIND WILL DIMINISH AFTER 05Z. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE INCOMING FRONT STRENGTHENING
AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GALE WARNING
FOR THE COAST...STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GALES ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE STRAIT AND ADMIRALTY INLET...IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS E OF WHIDBEY ISLAND...AND ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH UNSTABLE NW FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA. RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.GALE WARNINGS ALL WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE