Wind Advisory 16, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...
ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE STORM MOVES TO THE EAST. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ABOUT TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FRONT APPROACHING COAST AND GALES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
MOST WATERS. RAIN WILL BEGIN PRESENTLY ON THE COAST AND SPREAD
INLAND THIS EVENING. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE SEATTLE METROPOLITAN AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z. AT THAT POINT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE...AND SHOWERS WILL TAPER LATE.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AFTER A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS THAT WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. OFFSHORE FLOW THEN SETS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THINGS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. WENT ABOVE MOS TEMPS FOR
THE HIGH SUNDAY AS SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW COULD
BRING WARM EAST WINDS INTO MANY SPOTS.

WEAK FRONT HANGS OFFSHORE MONDAY AND THAT DAY IS STARTING TO LOOK
DRY AS WELL. KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY IN MOST ZONES. THE FRONT
WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR CONTINUED
CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS...50 OR
SO...EXCEPT FOR A WARMER THAN AVERAGE SPELL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY
MONDAY. CHB

.LONG TERM...WEAK FRONT HAS MAIN ENERGY SOUTH OF WASHINGTON ON
TUESDAY BUT HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT WITH
GFS DEVELOPING A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
THE EURO BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT INLAND ABOUT THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT OTHERWISE. HAVE GONE WITH
THE DRY IDEA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS W WA THIS EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. CIGS ABOVE
BKN100 WILL PLUMMET TO MVFR 5SM RA BKN010-030 BY 00Z ON THE COAST
AND AROUND 02Z PUGET SOUND...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
2-3 HOURS AFTER CIGS DROP. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LOTS OF LOW-TOPPED
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE THAT WILL REACH THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR WITH SPOTTY MVFR AROUND SHOWERS.

KSEA...EXPECT CIGS ABOVE BKN070 THROUGH ABOUT 02Z THEN DROPPING
RAPIDLY TO 5SM -RA BKN020-030. FROPA AROUND 04Z-05Z. STRONG S-SW
WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH 05Z. 10,000-15,000 FT OVER
KOLM FORECAST 50-65KT...CURRENTLY ACARS SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN A MAX
NEAR 45 KT. 5000-8000 FT OVER KSEA FORECAST 35-50KT...CURRENTLY
ABOUT 25 KT. WINDS AFTER 03Z WILL TURN MORE MORE SW-W INSTEAD OF
S-SW. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN S-SE 5-15KT. KAM

.MARINE...STRONG FAST MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND 02Z AND PUGET SOUND
04Z-05Z. GALES HAVE BEEN WORKING OUT COAST AND STANDARD SE AFFECTED
AREAS. ALSO BREEZY OVER ON N HOOD CANAL. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
CURRENT WARNINGS. WILL KEEP THE LATER EXPIRATION TIMES TO ALLOW THE
MIDSHIFT SOME CUSHION IN-CASE CONDITIONS LAST A LITTLE LONGER PAST
THE EVENING FORECAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD. NO QUARRELS WITH THE MODELS. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
      CAMANO ISLAND TO POINT ROBERTS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE