River Flood Warning 2, NWS Seattle, WA

000
WGUS86 KSEW 181329
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
629 AM PDT SUN MAY 18 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WESTERN 
WASHINGTON..
  NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL AFFECTING LEWIS AND PIERCE COUNTIES.
  
  COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 4

                SOUTH WEST REGION

RAPID SNOW MELT...A RESULT OF THE VERY WARM WEATHER THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...PUSHED THE NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. THE RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH THE RIVER RECEDING BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE RECEDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS...OR SUVS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

WAC041-053-182229-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080519T0134Z/
/NISW1.1.ER.080518T0421Z.080518T0745Z.080519T1634Z.NO/
629 AM PDT SUN MAY 18 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING. 
* AT 5:15 AM THIS MORNING THE STAGE WAS 10.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT 9:21 PM ON
  SATURDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT 10.5 FEET AROUND 11 AM
  THIS MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...THE NISQUALLY RIVER WILL FLOOD ROADS AND 
  PASTURE LANDS ALONG THE UPPER REACHES OF THE RIVER...FROM MOUNT
  RAINIER NATIONAL PARK DOWNSTREAM TO ALDER LAKE.

$$

WAC041-182200-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0002.080518T1637Z-080518T2200Z/
/RAWW1.1.SM.080518T1637Z.080518T1800Z.080518T1919Z.NO/
629 AM PDT SUN MAY 18 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE.
* FROM 10 AM SUNDAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 6:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 10 AM...AND CREST 
  NEAR 18.1 FEET AROUND 11 AM THIS MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD AROUND STAGE NOON TODAY.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING 
  FROM THE VICINITY OF RANDLE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH RIFFE LAKE...
  COVERING NEARBY FARM LANDS AND SEVERAL ROADS.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
935 PM PDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH THAT CAUSED RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE CASCADES
THIS EVENING. MARINE AIR ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL PUSH INTO
THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT. A COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE THERMALLY INDUCED
TROUGH NOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS IN THE
PROCESS OF PEAKING THIS EVENING WITH KOTH-KSEA NEAR PLUS 6 MB AND
KHQM-KSEA OVER PLUS 3 MB. MARINE AIR ALONG THE COAST...TEMPERATURES
AT KUIL AND KHQM ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...STARTING TO FILTER INTO THE INTERIOR. KSHN AND KKLS
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE MID 60S. THE MARINE AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LAST VISIBLE IMAGE OF THE DAY SHOWED
JUST A THIN STRIP OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT MORE STRATUS TO
FORM ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE INTERIOR 12Z-15Z
SUNDAY BUT WHATEVER FORMS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BE SHALLOW ENOUGH
TO BURN OFF BY MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT STILL WARM WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PLUS 10-12C IN THE AFTERNOON SO WITH SOME SUNSHINE
TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S IN SOME
SPOTS. MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON MOST OF THE DAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY FOR A
RETURN TO THE WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN FOR MOST OF THE
SPRING...TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE TRENDS COVERED. NO ZONE UPDATE TONIGHT. FELTON

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE WED
AND THU WHICH LEAVES WRN WA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
PATTERN WHERE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWLAND TEMPS IN THE 60S. THE
500MB HEIGHTS STAY AROUND 570DAM THU-SAT ON THE 12Z GFS. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THAT THE FLOW BACKS FROM NNW TO MORE WNW BY THE WEEKEND
AND THE HEIGHTS FALL A LITTLE SO CANNOT GET TOO OPTIMISTIC. THE 06Z
GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF HAVE MORE OF A RIDGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND EVEN AS
THE 12Z GFS GETS PROGRESSIVELY TROFFIER THRU THE WEEKEND. SO COULD
GO EITHER WAY AND FCST WILL CHANGE WITH TIME. 19

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PUSHING EAST THIS EVENING...AND ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE INCREASING. IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW...LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAS STARTED TO FORM ALONG THE
COAST. WITH INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA OVER 4
MB...OVER 3 MB INFLOW THOUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP...AND NORTH BEND TO
SEATTLE GRADIENTS WELL OVER 5 MB...EXPECT THE STRATUS TO DEVELOP
INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND ENGULF MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS AND
ASSOCIATED TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 13Z THROUGH ABOUT 17Z. WARM GROUND
FROM TODAYS HEAT AND MIXING BY THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP STRATUS
BASES AROUND 010 MSL. THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW...SO IT SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY BURN OFF BEFORE 18Z.

KSEA...S/SW WIND 8-12 KT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY
SUN...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TURN MORE WLY 22Z-01Z AS DIURNAL SEA BREEZES
KICK IN. EXPECT BKN010 BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z TO AFFECT THE
TERMINAL...BURNING OFF RAPIDLY BEFORE 18Z. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MORNING.
WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT DUE TO STRONG
INFLOW EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...HOOD CANAL...AND SOUTH PORTIONS
OF PUGET SOUND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY AS STRONG THERMAL GRADIENTS WILL NOT BE
IN PLACE.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MON. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVALANCHE...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING INTO THE 70 AND 80 DEGREE
RANGE FRIDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
TODAY EVEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...EXPECT FURTHER DANGEROUS
SLIDE ACTIVITY TODAY AND GENERALLY HIGH DANGER TO
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE ABOUT 4 TO 5000 FEET. SOME RECENT SLIDES
HAVE RELEASED TO GROUND WITH SLAB DEPTHS REACHING 15 TO 20
FEET...AND DEBRIS INVOLVING MUD...ROCKS AND MATURE TIMBER. WHILE THE
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND THE AIR IS HOT...THIS IS NOT A GOOD TIME FOR
MOUNTAIN RELATED FUN. BETTER TO WAIT UNTIL THIS MAJOR SPRING SLIDE
CYCLE CONCLUDES. ALTHOUGH SOME COOLING...INCREASED RIDGETOP WINDS
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SNOW MELT...A
WEAK SNOWPACK SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION IN THE DANGER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE NWAC.US FOR
MORE DETAILS. MOORE

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.FLOOD WARNING NISQUALLY RIVER AT NATIONAL.
.FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE RIVERS IN KING...
LEWIS...AND PIERCE COUNTIES THRU SUNDAY EVENING.
.GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY
INLET AND PUGET SOUND SOUTH OF SEATTLE.

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE