Snow Advisory 4, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
106 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR STRONG WEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER
AIR...ALONG WITH HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT CONTINUE TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE MISS VALLEY.
RADAR ALSO SHOWING -RA SPILLING EAST OUT OF CENTRAL KY BUT MOST OF
THIS REMAINS ALOFT PER SFC-6H DRY AIR SEEN IN 00Z RAOBS. COULD SEE
A SPRINKLE OR SOME -RA CLIP THE NW SECTIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...OTRW
THINK THE BEST RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
THE PREFRONTAL MOISTURE. THUS SLOWED DOWN HIGHER POPS UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT THE FAR NW WHERE KEPT DECENT CHANCES GOING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS THE NW MAY BE CLOSE
TO FREEZING IN SPOTS BUT THINK AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE WILL SEE
TEMPS EDGE BACK UP OVERNIGHT SO RUNNING W/OUT -FZRA MENTION FOR
NOW. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE NO GULF FETCH AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...GOOD DYNAMICS OVER THE REGION MAY BE PROLONGED A BIT
TUESDAY WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS MISSOURI...ALLOWING FOR QPFS
CLOSER TO AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTN WITH CONDITIONS TURNING WINDY IMMEDIATELY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY SCOUR OUT CLOUDS IN
THE EAST FOR A PERIOD OF SUN BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY. LOWERED
OVERNIGHT TEMPS A CAT OR SO IN SPOTS GIVEN CURRENT PERIOD OF CLEAR
SKIES/RAD CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE ALLOWING RISES LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WIND ADVISORY WINDS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESADY NGHT
INTO WED...BUT THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE SNOW ON THE WESTERN SLOPES.
EXCELLENT CYCLONIC FLOW OFF THE LAKES ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTR AND INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD (24-36 HOURS) OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...THOSE ABOVE 3000 FT STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING
WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS AS WELL AS BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
THEREFORE A WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS STARTING TUESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR CONTINUING...BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING
COVERAGE OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER ONE TO
TWO INCHES IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL STAY IN A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AFTER A BRIEF VISIT BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIPPING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND AMPLIFYING.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH EVEN BETTER COVERAGE
ON SATURDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST EITHER RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE SNOW BEING DURING THE NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME.

UPPER RIDGING AGAIN BRIEFLY RETURNS FOR A DRY FORECAST ON
SUNDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING...AROUND 12Z TUE
IN THE WEST AND 14Z-16Z TUE IN THE EAST...WITH THE APPROACH OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. 00Z TUE SOUNDINGS AROUND THE REGION VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS...THEREFORE HAD DELAYED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS A
FEW HOURS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING
MVFR CLOUDS A LITTLE EARLIER ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE THIS RESTRICTION IN AT THE MOMENT FOR ROA.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENCOMPASS
THE REGION. THERE COULD ALSO BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SOUTH OF KDAN.

ONCE THE PREFRONTAL RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT. THE
FRONTAL RAIN WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED IN SE WV (KLWB/KBLF) IN THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL DECREASE MOVING EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING WINDY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY...COLD
AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A LONG PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN SLOPES
FROM SE WV SOUTH INTO THE NW NC MOUNTAINS. VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY COULD DROP BELOW IFR IN SOME STRONGER SNOW
BANDS. A FEW FLURRIES MAY REACH THE FOOTHILLS HOWEVER...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY THURSDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY WITH OPERATIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED THRU
SAT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VAZ007-010-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/JJ
NEAR TERM...JS/NONE
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
353 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008

NCZ002-VAZ011>014-016>020-022>024-WVZ044-262100-
ALLEGHANY NC-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MONROE-
353 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD GUST TO 50 OR 55 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE MAY
OCCUR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ007-010-WVZ042-043-045-262100-
TAZEWELL-BLAND-MERCER-SUMMERS-GREENBRIER-
353 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 3000 FEET.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING
6 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE TO THE WESTERN SLOPES MAINLY ABOVE 3000
FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALSO GUST TO 50 OR 55 MPH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS
AROUND ZERO MAY OCCUR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ009-262100-
SMYTH-
353 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD GUST TO 50 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAY BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN WESTERN SLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS AROUND ZERO MAY OCCUR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-262100-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
353 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD GUST TO 45 MPH TUESDAY
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-018-VAZ015-262100-
ASHE-WATAUGA-GRAYSON-
353 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 3000 FEET.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING MAY BRING
6 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE TO THE WESTERN SLOPE LOCATIONS. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALSO GUST TO 50 OR 55 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS AROUND ZERO MAY
OCCUR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.