Severe Thunderstorm Warning 438, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
112 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BY SATURDAY...THE FRONT
SAGS TO OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN PERSISTING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALREADY SENT EARLIER UPDATE FOR CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING
ACROSS THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROF. SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY FINALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE NE
AND WEAKEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SWATH OF MID DECK ERODES WITH
HEATING. NEXT PACKAGE OF S/W ENERGY WILL ROUND THE TROF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WEAK SFC FRONT/TROF REACHING THE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST MODIFIED RAOBS ONLY SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY PER
1K OR SO CAPES AND NOT A LOT OF SHEAR AS WEAK FLOW QUITE
UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER QUITE COLD ALOFT AND GIVEN DEEP RH OFF
SOUNDINGS WOULD EXPECT A COMBO OF DIFF HEATING AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS TO SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF AT
LEAST SCTD CONVECTION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE WITH WEAK
FLOW ALOFT THAT SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH SVR MAINLY PULSE
NATURE PENDING DEGREE OF CLUSTERING THAT TAKES SHAPE. EXPECT MUCH
OF THIS TO FINALLY JUMP TO OLD LEE TROF TO THE EAST BY THIS
EVENING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN LATE TONIGHT. THUS BUMPED UP
POPS TO A BIT HIGHER CHANCE MOST SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWERED
HIGHS SOME ESPCLY NW THIRD DUE TO A SLOW START UNDER CLOUDS/SHRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOC WITH TODAYS PASSING WAVE LAGS SOMEWHAT
INTO SATURDAY JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN A
FINAL WAVE MOVES THRU WITH THE UPR TROF AXIS DURING THE DAY WHICH
WILL TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION ACROSS NC AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHSIDE VA.
FOR NOW WILL ADD JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
SUNDAY...AS SFC RIDGE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THIS...THE
12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE OVER THE
PIEDMONT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN AIRMASS SHOULD BE DRY
ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONVECTION...AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE CAPPED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5H HEIGHTS BUILDS DURING THE WEEK...AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
VARIETY OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA INTO TUE. SOLUTION
GIVEN BY HPC DEPICTS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND
MOST OF THE TIME...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM NOW
LOCATED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SHOWS THIS
LOW GOING EAST OF FLORIDA. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO AREAS OF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SINCE
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT...WILL INCLUDE TEMPO CONVECTIVE MENTION IN MOST WESTERN
TAFS INTO LATE THSI AFTERNOON.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING...BUT VERY SLOWLY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SE THRU LATE THIS EVENING BUT WONT INCLUDE ATTM. MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS FORMATION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 03-04Z.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND. MOUNTAIN AND RIVERS VALLEYS ARE LIKELY
CANDIDATES FOR OVERNIGHT IFR FOG UNTIL THE FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR
TO THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/JJ/JS
SHORT TERM...JS/WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH/JS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
128 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-161730-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
128 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 833 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>045-161730-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
128 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
124 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

VAZ032-043-151800-
HENRY VA-PATRICK VA-
124 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CITY OF MARTINSVILLE...HENRY AND
PATRICK COUNTIES...

AT 121 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
BASSETT...AND 4 MILES NORTH OF CRITZ...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 14 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR SANVILLE AROUND 130 PM...BASSETT AND SPENCER
AROUND 140 PM...STANLEYTOWN AROUND 150 PM...FIELDALE AROUND 155 PM
AND COLLINSVILLE AND HORSE PASTURE AROUND 200 PM.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG BY CALLING
1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

WP

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