Severe Thunderstorm Warning 431, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
230 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT IS GOING TO SWING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT HANGS UP JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRAVEL EAST TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS ACRS MI WILL SOUTHEAST...WITH BEST DYNAMIC TO
THE NORTH. WAA OVER-RUNNING PCPN CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE
SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. EXPECTED DIURNAL CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER PULLS AWAY FROM REGION...DRYING WILL
OCCUR OVERNIGHT. ADDED SOME AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. PLAYED LOW
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MAV GUID.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BNDRY WILL SLIDE DOWN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO
ROUND THE BROAD EASTERN U.S. TROF. SCTD CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTN AND EVENING WEST OF THE APPS ALONG THE BNDRY AND PUSH
EAST INTO THE CWA. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. LEANED POPS TOWARDS NAM SOLUTION AND USED BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL SEE LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THURSDAY EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT STALLS
JUST EAST OF US INTO FRIDAY...MORE LIKE A LEE TROUGH. UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO WILL SPIN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS WEST TO
NW AT SFC AND ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. ATTM...THINK POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR WRN
CWA AND FAR EASTERN CWA IN THE LEE TROUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP
IN BETWEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SWING EAST AND OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKE PLACE SATURDAY. LOOKS
LIKE A WARM DAY OUT EAST WITH THE DOWNSLOPE...BUT DEWPOINTS SHOULD
MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. CLOSED H5 LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD BACK EAST INTO
NEXT WEEK. LR MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION EAST...AS IT
WAITS FOR A TROUGH TO DEEPEN IN SE CANADA TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SE RIDGE WILL RETURN
ALLOWING TEMPS TO SOLIDLY RETURN TO PERHAPS ABV NORMAL LEVELS INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE SE RIDGE MAY ACTUALLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT MOST DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA...WITH JUST
DIURNAL TSTORMS INSTEAD OF ANY TYPE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO
POTENTIALLY MAKE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLD IFR IN CLOUDS/CONVECTION
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SHARP EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SYSTEMS INVERTED TROUGH AXIS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
WEST WITH DECREASING MOISTURE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG MAY FORM IN THE
RIVER/MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS 06Z APPROACHES.

ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST
COAST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY
TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND. MOUNTAIN AND RIVERS
VALLEYS ARE LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR OVERNIGHT IFR FOG UNTIL THE FRONT
BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...KM/WP
AVIATION...JS/KK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
345 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-140745-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
345 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
126 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

VAZ007-010-131830-
BLAND VA-TAZEWELL VA-
126 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BLAND AND TAZEWELL COUNTIES...

AT 121 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF
TAZEWELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 14 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR GRATTON AROUND 145 PM...BURKES GARDEN AROUND
200 PM AND CERES AROUND 220 PM.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
230 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

VAZ007-131900-
TAZEWELL VA-
230 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT TAZEWELL COUNTY...

AT 229 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF RICHLANDS...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CLIFFIELD AROUND 235 PM...AMONATE AROUND 245
PM AND TAZEWELL AROUND 300 PM.

OTHER SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS TAZEWELL COUNTY COULD PRODUCE THE SAME
AMOUNT OF RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. EXERCISE CAUTION IF CAUGHT UNDER ONE
OF THESE STORMS AS VISIBILITIES COULD DRAMATICALLY DROP.

RCS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
305 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

VAZ007-131930-
TAZEWELL VA-
305 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT TAZEWELL COUNTY...

AT 303 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER RICHLANDS...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CEDAR BLUFF AROUND 325 PM AND BANDY AROUND
330 PM.

RCS

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