Severe Thunderstorm Warning 325, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MORE ORGANIZED STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL
STILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH SHORT WAVES COMING AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS TROUGH. RAIN EARLY TODAY HELPED LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL BY
KNOCKING DOWN SURFACE CAPES...BUT LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
TOWARDS TAZEWELL AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD WANES
OVERNIGHT...BUT ANOTHER WAVE AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET COULD
REINTRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN CWA.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT COULD
SUPPRESS SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING AND WITH AN INCOMING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD
INCREASE WITH A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND HIGH INSTABILITIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT ENTER THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE HUNG UP UNTIL A SURFACE WAVE TRACKS
ALONG IT AND MOVES TO THE MASON DIXON LINE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

WILL RUN MUGGY TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MAV TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND BEING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WE HAVE BEEN AND AROUND
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE NJ COAST
BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD HAVE THE FRONT TO AT LEAST THE
VA/NC BORDER...IF NOT IN NC THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN A NEW WEATHER PATTERN WITH DRIER AND
MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL RESIDE IN THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
RETURN OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WEAK FRONT AND/OR OVER RUNNING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH LOCAL LONG TERM FORECAST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
POPS LOW (20/30) FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT LATE THIS
AFT/EVENING WILL REMIAN EAST OF LYH AND DAN. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AND THE FAR WEST HAS HAD SEVERAL
HOURS OF HEATING. I EXPECT SCT TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OUT TOWARDS BLF AND LWB. I HAVE INCLUDED SOME
PERIODS OF TSTMS...OR AT LEAST VCNTY TSTM...IN MOST OF THE TAF
SITES. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE AT
LEAST MVFR FOG...POSSIBLY IFR AT FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS LWB.
MODELS HAVE A PREFRONTAL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THE
WEST WED MORNING AND THEN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...SO I
HAVE PUT IN VCNTY TSTMS FOR ALL SITES BEGINNING 14Z IN THE WEST AT
BLF AND AT 17Z IN DANVILLE.

COOL FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD WED AFT/EVENING
BRINGING MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. WILL BE A THREAT FOR
VERY HEAVY RAIN...POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS NC THU...SO THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
TSMTS MAINLY AT DANVILLE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILLWORK INTO MOST OF
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JJ/PC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
341 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-091945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
341 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. A
FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RCS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
638 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

NCZ004-005-VAZ032-043-082345-
ROCKINGHAM NC-STOKES NC-PATRICK VA-HENRY VA-
638 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 634 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STUART...OR ABOUT 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CRITZ...MOVING EAST AT 21 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE NEAR...SANDY RIDGE...PRESTONVILLE AT 650 PM EDT...PENNS STORE
AT 655 PM EDT...SPENCER AT 700 PM EDT...AYERSVILLE AT 705 PM EDT...
HORSE PASTURE...MAYODAN AT 715 PM EDT...PRICE AT 720 PM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.