Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
239 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN
VIRGINIA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONVECTION BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH SPEED MAX AHEAD OF UPSTREAM UPPER TROF
AND GOOD INSTABILITY. EXPECT GIVEN ADDED BANDS OF TSRA TO THE WEST
WILL SEE THIS AREA AND POINTS NORTH CONTINUE TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUC. ALSO WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKING A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TSRA TO JUMP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DESPITE APPARENT
LACKING UPPER SUPPORT. THUS PLAN TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FAR WEST
ESPCLY GIVEN WATCH AND RUN WITH MAINLY CHANCE ELSEWHERE THRU THE
EARLY EVENING. SHOULD SEE MAJORITY FADE TOWARD MIDNIGHT UNLESS NEXT
COMPLEX ACROSS KY ORGANIZES AND PUSHES EAST SO WILL KEEP
CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL. LOW TEMPS MAINLY
PERSISTENCE WITH 60S TO AROUND 70.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE 5H TROF
PIVOTING TO THE SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME LEAD S/W ENERGY MAY HAVE
SHRA/TSRA ONGOING DURING THE MORNING WEST BEFORE OVERALL SUPPORT
SPLITS A BIT WITH DYNAMICS NORTH AND BEST THETA-E OVER THE
CAROLINAS. HOWEVER SINCE INSTABILITY QUITE STRONG ESPCLY SOUTH AND
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP TREND OF LIKELY POPS
GOING UNDER MORE CLOUDS PER RESIDUAL MOISTURE. LIKE HIGHS CLOSER TO
THE COOLER MET UNLESS SW JET CAUSES THINGS TO MIX OUT MORE WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL SEE LINGERING CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW CLEARS THINGS BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND DECENT SHORTWAVE WILL USE ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON MONDAY....WITH MAIN CHANCE OVER SE
WV. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES COOL AIR ALOFT...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY BE A CONCERN. THIS 1ST SHORWAVE PUSHES EAST TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER ONE CROSSING THE SRN APPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR NW CWA TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LEAN TOWARDS THE HPC SOLUTION WHICH FOLLOWS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
MIDWEEK IS LOOKING DRY WITH 5H WITH ZONAL FLOW. STRONG HIGH
LATITUDE RIDGE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL CAUSE SHRTWVS TO EJECT IN
NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY DIG A TROUGH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK PUSHING AN EAST-WEST
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...AFTER A RESPITE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOK ACTIVE WITH
LLVL WAA COMBINING WITH COOLING IN THE MIDLEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THRU THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NW.
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE AT BLF/LWB BUT POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST AT ANY TIME THRU THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LYH...ROA AND DAN WILL SEE MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION IS VERY DIFFICULT SO RUNNING WITH MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT
BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN TSRA WHERE VCTS WILL BE INCLUDED. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC.

A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...KM/WP
AVIATION...JH/JS/RCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-291745-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
136 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ009>020-022>024-291745-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-
136 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ007-WVZ042>045-291745-
TAZEWELL-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
136 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 630 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
446 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

VAZ013-017-282145-
FLOYD VA-PULASKI VA-
446 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

AT 446 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALLISONIA...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
SOUTH OF CLAYTOR LAKE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...COPPER VALLEY...GRAYSONTOWN AT 500 PM
EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
518 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

NCZ019-020-282215-
YADKIN NC-WILKES NC-
518 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

AT 516 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF BOOMER...OR ABOUT 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MORAVIAN FALLS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...WINDY GAP AT 525 PM EDT...BUCK SHOALS...
BROOKS CROSSROADS AT 540 PM EDT...LONE HICKORY AT 545 PM EDT...
COURTNEY...SHACKTOWN AT 555 PM EDT...HUNTSVILLE AT 600 PM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES DURING THE NEXT HOUR.
PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE IN POOR DAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>