Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1008 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL STOP JUST SHORT OF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SHOVE THE REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY...AND HOLD A WARM FRONT WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
MOUNTAINS LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAD ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND WATCH 594 THRU MIDNIGHT GIVEN
CONTINUING COVERAGE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS. HAVE DROPPED SOME
COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST...SE WV AND THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. I
ALSO UPDATED THE WEATHER TO REFLECT COVERAGE FROM THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY...NORTHEAST INTO THE SRN SHEN VALLEY. DESPITE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING...00Z RNK RAOB SHOWS PLENTY OF INTSBAILITY FOR THE
BROKEN LINE OF STSTMS TO TAP AS THEY MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP KEEP LAPSE RATES RELATIVELY
STEEP...AS WELL AS HELP INCREASE SHEAR A BIT AND BRING IN SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT LATE IN THE DAY. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING ALOFT IN
THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SFC CAPES OF 2000 J/KG OR HIGHER. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS THE CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR SOME MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND PROBABLY A FEW MORE SEVERE STORMS COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...WITH WIND PERHAPS HIGHEST THREAT. SUSPECT EARLIEST
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN OVER HIGHEST TERRAIN BUT SPREADING EAST AND
ALSO MORE ORGANIZED MOVING IN FROM WEST LATE IN THE DAY OR
EVENING. JUST WENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CHC POPS EVERYWHERE...WITH
HIGHEST IN THE WEST LATE.

WHILE THERE MAY BE MORE AREAS THAT BY EARLY EVENING HAVE
EXPERIENCE CONVECTION COMPARED TO SATURDAY...THE TIMING OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS LIKELY TO ONCE AGAIN
KEEP SOME CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO HAVE
KEPT A SMALL CHC POP UP FOR THE WEST ALL NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST.

AM STICKING VERY CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS
OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS PER RECENT COOL BIASES FOR
HIGHS. HIGHS VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EAST
AND 70S TO NEAR 80 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL AWAITING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO CROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINING...ALONG WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT...STORMS
CAN STILL FIRE...PERHAPS LASTING WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
DANVILLE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG. LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE COAST...AND RESULTING DOWNSLOPING WIND ON
TUESDAY MAY KEEP IT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE WITH QUICK DEWPOINTS
FALLS/MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST. NICE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER KLWB/KBLF MAYBE WORTHY OF A FEW
DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MINS THAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN LOOKS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING RIGHT
NOW. HEAT CONTINUES OUT WEST WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED JUST SOUTH
OF THE FOUR CORNERS. BY NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
STRENGTHENS INTO A CLOSED H5 LOW ALONG THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN
RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST AS ANOTHER GYRE
CRANKS JUST SOUTH OF ALASKA. THUS...BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCTD STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF TSRA. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP MIX OF VCTS AND TEMPO TSRA MENTION UNTIL A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. OTRW MAINTAINING VFR OUTSIDE OF
STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR DURING THEIR
PASSAGE.

MORE MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP MOST LOCATIONS AND LIKELY IFR
AT LWB/DAN...AND PERHAPS LYH/BLF.

STILL A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON
ESPCLY OVER THE EAST AS COLD POOL ALOFT PUSHES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. OTRW WILL INCLUDE A CB MENTION MOST AREAS WITH VFR/MVFR
CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON. NOTICEABLE CLEARING WILL OCCUR TUE AND WED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM
NEAR TERM...JH/JJ
SHORT TERM...KM/SK
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/JS/SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
757 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-240000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
757 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
847 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             BLACKSBURG              37.23N 80.42W
06/22/2008  M1.25 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PINE RIDGE DRIVE

0838 PM     HAIL             1 N BLACKSBURG          37.25N 80.42W
06/22/2008  M1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

DOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
904 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     HAIL             6 W NEW CASTLE          37.50N 80.23W
06/22/2008  M0.75 INCH       CRAIG              VA   PUBLIC

0852 PM     HAIL             5 NE BLACKSBURG         37.28N 80.35W
06/22/2008  M1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            AT IRONTO

&&

DOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
927 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     HAIL             SHAWSVILLE              37.17N 80.27W
06/22/2008  M0.88 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   PUBLIC

&&

DOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
937 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     HAIL             ELLISTON                37.22N 80.23W
06/22/2008  M1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   PUBLIC

&&

DOC