Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
335 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL STOP JUST SHORT OF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SHOVE THE REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY...AND HOLD A WARM FRONT WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
MOUNTAINS LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP KEEP LAPSE RATES RELATIVELY
STEEP...AS WELL AS HELP INCREASE SHEAR A BIT AND BRING IN SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT LATE IN THE DAY. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING ALOFT IN
THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SFC CAPES OF 2000 J/KG OR HIGHER. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS THE CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR SOME MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND PROBABLY A FEW MORE SEVERE STORMS COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...WITH WIND PERHAPS HIGHEST THREAT. SUSPECT EARLIEST
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN OVER HIGHEST TERRAIN BUT SPREADING EAST AND
ALSO MORE ORGANIZED MOVING IN FROM WEST LATE IN THE DAY OR
EVENING. JUST WENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CHC POPS EVERYWHERE...WITH
HIGHEST IN THE WEST LATE.

WHILE THERE MAY BE MORE AREAS THAT BY EARLY EVENING HAVE
EXPERIENCE CONVECTION COMPARED TO SATURDAY...THE TIMING OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS LIKELY TO ONCE AGAIN
KEEP SOME CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO HAVE
KEPT A SMALL CHC POP UP FOR THE WEST ALL NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST.

AM STICKING VERY CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS
OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS PER RECENT COOL BIASES FOR
HIGHS. HIGHS VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EAST
AND 70S TO NEAR 80 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL AWAITING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO CROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINING...ALONG WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT...STORMS
CAN STILL FIRE...PERHAPS LASTING WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
DANVILLE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG. LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE COAST...AND RESULTING DOWNSLOPING WIND ON
TUESDAY MAY KEEP IT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE WITH QUICK DEWPOINTS
FALLS/MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST. NICE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER KLWB/KBLF MAYBE WORTHY OF A FEW
DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MINS THAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN LOOKS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING RIGHT
NOW. HEAT CONTINUES OUT WEST WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED JUST SOUTH
OF THE FOUR CORNERS. BY NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
STRENGTHENS INTO A CLOSED H5 LOW ALONG THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN
RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST AS ANOTHER GYRE
CRANKS JUST SOUTH OF ALASKA. THUS...BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCTD STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8PM. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VCTS UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAT STORMS WILL HIT A PARTICULAR AIRSPACE. STORMS HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MORE MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP MOST LOCATIONS AND LIKELY IFR AT LWB AND
DAN...ESPECIALLY IF THEY PICK OF RAINFALL TODAY.

STILL A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NOTICEABLE CLEARING WILL OCCUR TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM
NEAR TERM...JS/SK
SHORT TERM...KM/SK
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JS/SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
344 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-231945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
344 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT NEARBY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREATS...ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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