Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
341 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ALOFT WAS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING ACROSS OHIO...WEST VIRGINIA...AND MUCH OF VIRGINIA WITH THE
REMNANTS OF AN MCS. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM
ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL INDIANA WAS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST...AND
COULD AFFECT AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY COINCIDES WITH A 90KT JET
AT 250MB DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AT 700MB AS MORE MOIST AND WARMER AIR AT 850MB ADVECTS IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GOOD LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED NORTH.
IN SOUTHERN ZONES...THE 700MB CAP IS A LITTLE STRONGER...WHICH
SHOULD YIELD LESS COVERAGE BUT STRONGER CELLS FOR ANYTHING THAT
CAN DEVELOP.

ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH...LIFT AGAIN
INCREASES PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST BY SPC TO BE UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY FORECAST BY THE GFS...UP TO 2000J/KG ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE PIEDMONT.
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND NORTHWEST...
MORE SCATTERED IN MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT...BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING
AND THE BEGINNING OF RIDGING BUILDING NORTH RESULTS IN DIMINISHING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS INSTABILITY FALLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE THE INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING STARTS
TO BUILD IN...CHANCES FOR MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH. GENERAL SUBSIDENCE BECOMES FAIRLY STRONG
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT...WITH A 5920M 500MB HIGH BASICALLY DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD BY 12Z FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
BOTH DAYS IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT SHOULD BE AT OR NEAR
95 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES SHOULD AT LEAST BE IN THE UPPER 90S IN
THE WARMER EAST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH DEW
POINTS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS HEAT INDICES COULD END UP BEING
JUST A BIT HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER A WARM START TO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY LOWERING THICKNESSES...MAKING
MAXES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY SHOULD BE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
SATURDAY. STILL...THE RIDGE IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW PRESSURE
AND ANY STRONG FRONT AT BAY...WITH AT MOST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD AND PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST...BUT WEAKENS
AS IT HITS THE STRONG MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. FOR NOW...JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SEVENTH DAY
SEEMS PRUDENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW PUSHING FROM KY INTO WV AND WRN
VA HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND THE LAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER ALL
TAF SITES STAND A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND A VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE PREVAILING GROUP.
OVERALL CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR WITH THUNDERSTORMS NEARBY...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS LASTING LESS THAN A HALF HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AS THIS AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS PASSES BY.

WE SHOULD SEE AN END TO PRIMARY PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING AND EXTRAPOLATION OF MCC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
GENERALLY SUPPORT CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP ABOVE 6 KTS OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD NOT
SEE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG...MVFR AT WORST. AN OVERNIGHT
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EITHER OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES APPEARS LIKELY AS WE SIT ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WITH A 45 KT LOW LEVEL JET NOSING IN FROM THE
WEST. LATER TAFS MAY NEED TO REFLECT THIS CHANCE IF IT MATERIALIZES.
THE COLUMN DRIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...SO EXPECT A TREND UP TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY 12-14Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF SOMEWHAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER VERY WARM HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF/BLAES
AVIATION...GIH/DJF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
403 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-041200-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
403 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG LATER WEDNESDAY...AS
A COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HEAT
INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT. ANYONE WHO WILL BE OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS
FROM THE HEAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

DJF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

NCZ003-004-VAZ032-031845-
PATRICK-STOKES-SURRY-
155 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SURRY...STOKES AND PATRICK
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 153 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PINNACLE AND FANCISCO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CAPELLA...VADE
MECUM...FRANCISCO...DANBURY...AND...COLLINSTOWN...LAWSONVILLE...
AND...COLLINSTOWN...SANDY RIDGE.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE WINDS ARE CAPABLE
OF BRINGING DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS. LIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH
CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND AWNINGS COULD BE TOSSED
AROUND.

BLAES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
224 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

NCZ003-019-020-031915-
SURRY-WILKES-YADKIN-
224 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WILKES...
SURRY...YADKIN AND SOUTHERN SURRY COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 222 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WINDY GAP AND ALONG THE WILKES...ALEXANDER COUNTY LINE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...RONDA...SWANCREEK...
ARLINGTON...BURCH...CRUTCHFIELD...ROCKFORD.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

BLAES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
334 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

NCZ003-004-032015-
STOKES-SURRY-
334 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SURRY AND STOKES COUNTIES
THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 334 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
LEVEL CROSS...OR ABOUT OVER DOBSON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ARARAT...PILOT
MOUNTAIN...PINNACLE...CAPELLA...AND...VADE MECUM.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

JFB