Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
228 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SAG SOUTH AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SERIES OF WEAK MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY
FLOW OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND APPROACH OF REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN A CONTINUED THREAT
OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS OVER AREA REVEAL THE POTENTIAL OF LIFTED INDEX
VALUES IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE WITH CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL
ENERGY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. DESPITE SOME THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION...SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING IS LACKING...AND SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY...PERSISTENT DEEP WESTERLY WIND FLOW OVER REGION WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BEING FAVORED OVER UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
WEST...WITH LESSER THREAT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO INFLUENCE
OF DOWNSLOPING.

DESPITE MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION...
AMOUNT OF INSOLATION OVER BLACKSBURG AREA HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO
REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
WEST...AND APPROACHING THE LOWER-MID 80S NEEDED ACROSS THE EAST.

CONSIDERING THE ABOVE...GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPICT HIGHEST THREAT FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST...WITH LOWER THREAT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING AS MAIN FORCING SHIFTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA. SKIES ARE GOING TO CLEAR IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS GO LIGHT. SO EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS...NEAR
RIVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS OVERHEAD
AND THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A DRY FORECAST...WITH
TEMPS AROUND MET MOS...WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SHOULD BE LESS
HUMID. LATE MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD START TO SEE CLOUD COVER IN
THE WEST START TO INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT ALKES WITH A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS AND ENOUGH SFC
CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS IN THE WEST WITH LESS
CHANCE OUT EAST. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC ALONG WITH SFC LOW INTO NEW YORK. THIS SHOULD DROP THE
COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP AS FAR SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW DEEPENDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE
5H RIDGE BUILDS IN EARNEST FOR LATE WEEK...TRANSITIONING US INTO
A TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE REGIME WITH WARMER/MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. AS WE WORK INTO THE WEEKEND THE MAIN LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE COLD FRONT STRINGS OUT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH...WITH BUT THE
FORECAST AREA IS IN THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...SO A
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BETTER SHOT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE HOT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE 5H RIDGE SURGES NWD FROM TH4E GULF COASTAL AREA
KEEPING THE MAIN STORM TRACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA/NY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THAT WILL TRAVERSE MAINLY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY REDUCTION OF FLIGHT RULES BELOW VFR SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED...LESS THAN AN HOUR...AT ANY ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...WHEN
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER INTO A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOL FRONT LATER TONIGHT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND WIND SPEED. WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING OVER A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE/AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY OF
SE WV AT KLWB...AND NEAR KBLF.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS/WP
NEAR TERM...WERT/WP
SHORT TERM...DS/WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/WERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1012 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012-013-015>017-032-033-043>047-
058-059-021415-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-WYTHE-PULASKI-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1012 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZED HAIL OR WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO COOL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ011-014-018>020-022>024-034-035-WVZ042>045-021415-
GILES-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
1012 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1255 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

NCZ001-002-018-011800-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...BOONE
1255 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

AT 1145 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH INTO THE HIGHLANDS
OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO ONE INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016-011800-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-WYTHE-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...
WYTHEVILLE...INDEPENDENCE...GALAX
1255 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

AT 1145 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ONTO THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. ALL STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 30 MPH. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY THROUGH 200 PM EDT WILL REMAIN FROM BETWEEN RICHLANDS
AND SALTVILLE EAST TO BETWEEN WYTHEVILLE AND INDEPENDENCE.

SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO ONE INCH IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

WERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
325 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FIELDALE                36.70N 79.95W
06/01/2008                   HENRY              VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN ON APPALACHIAN DRIVE.

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW MARTINSVILLE CITY 36.69N 79.91W
06/01/2008                   HENRY              VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN ON KOEHLER ROAD.

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AXTON                   36.67N 79.72W
06/01/2008                   HENRY              VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN ON MOUNTAIN VALLEY ROAD.

&&

WHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
336 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

VAZ044-058-012100-
HALIFAX VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
336 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PITTSYLVANIA
COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR...HALIFAX AT 350 PM EDT...SOUTH BOSTON AT 355 PM
EDT...SCOTTSBURG AT 405 PM EDT...DRYBURG AT 415 PM EDT...

EXPECT WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH THESE STORMS...AS
WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG BY CALLING
1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

SK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
349 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE CHILHOWIE         36.81N 81.63W
06/01/2008                   SMYTH              VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 11 IN SEVEN MILE FORD HAD SEVERAL FEET OF WATER
            RUNNING ACROSS IT. FLOODING OCCURRED FROM 215 PM EDT
            THROUGH THE TIME OF THE REPORT AT 252 PM EDT. ROADS WERE
            ALSO FLOODED NEAR CHILHOWIE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

WHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
351 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     HAIL             1 E ADWOLF              36.79N 81.57W
06/01/2008  E0.75 INCH       SMYTH              VA   PUBLIC

&&

WERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
410 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

VAZ034-012115-
BEDFORD VA-
410 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

AT 409 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF STEWARTSVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 24 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...STEWARTSVILLE AT
415 PM EDT...CHAMBLISSBURG AT 425 PM EDT...THAXTON AT 435 PM
EDT...D-DAY MEMORIAL AT 445 PM EDT...AND BEDFORD CITY AT 450 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...REMAIN INDOORS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG BY CALLING
1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

WP