Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Blacksburg, VA

000 
WGUS71 KRNK 090413
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1208 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

VAC031-143-090845-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080509T0845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAMPBELL VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
1208 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWEST CAMPBELL COUNTIES...

AT 1203 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED
AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HURT...HODGES
AND ALTAVISTA.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG SYCAMORE CREEK IN NORTHERN PITTSYLVANIA 
COUNTY...INCLUDING AROUND THE TOWN OF MOTLEY AND ON STATE ROUTE 
637. 

IN SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY...FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG HILLS 
CREEK...MINTER CREEK...AND SENECA CREEK...INCLUDING STATE ROUTE 705 
AND STATE ROUTE 761.  

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING INCLUDING MUDSLIDES...OR ROAD
CLOSURES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG BY CALLING
TOLL FREE...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. DELAYED REPORTS ARE WELCOME.

LAT...LON 3711 7905 3694 7942 3702 7947 3702 7946
      3703 7946 3722 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 0408Z 180DEG 0KT 3702 7938

$$

000 
WGUS71 KRNK 090802
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
400 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

VAC031-143-090845-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080509T0845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAMPBELL VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
400 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL CAMPBELL COUNTIES...

AT 359 AM EDT...RUN-OFF FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO 
PRODUCE FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS OVER THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HURT...HODGES
AND ALTAVISTA

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING INCLUDING MUDSLIDES...OR ROAD
CLOSURES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG BY CALLING
TOLL FREE...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. DELAYED REPORTS ARE WELCOME.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM EDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3711 7905 3694 7942 3702 7947 3702 7946
      3703 7946 3722 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 0800Z 180DEG 0KT 3702 7938

$$

RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
347 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSUE MOVES ALONG THE
MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS KY IS FCST TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY MOIST...PWATS FCST TO
PEAK BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.7 EARLY TONIGHT...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S. DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT...PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING.

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH SUN WE
GET LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DENSE CLOUD COVER PREVAILED INTO THE
EARLY AFTN...BUT HAS BEEN THINNING WITH TIME. AS TEMPS INCREASE
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY NEEDED TO FUEL THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS. CAPES ARE FCST TO PEAK AT AROUND
1500 J/KG THIS EVENING. SHEAR IS ABUNDANT...SRH FCSTS NEAR 200
M2/S2 FOR THIS EVENING. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE THE FORMATION OF
DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CELLS...SOME OF WHICH MAY HAVE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MAIN TIME
FRAME TO WATCH FOR SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE FROM 21 TO 06
UTC.

WITH THE HIGH PWATS...WILL ALSO NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENTS BEGIN TO
TRAIN. ATTM...WIND FLOW LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
STORMS MOVING...BUT IT TRAINING DOES DEVELOP...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
STACK UP QUICKLY. GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z...WITH FOCUS ON THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST.
A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES IS 170% OF NORMAL. FORTUNATELY FFG IS HIGH
NOW. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING...SO DO NOT THINK THERE IS A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ATTM.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE FASTER GFS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW...SO TAPER OFF PRECIP PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
WITH THE LOW PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE SOME CLEARING. NOT MUCH COLD ADVECTION FRIDAY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUICK SHOT OF SHWS ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM FRIDAYS LOW
PRESSURE AGREED UPON BY NAM/GFS/SREF SO INC POPS MAINLY IN THE
HIGH TERRITORY...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD SURVIVE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CHC OF STRONG STORMS ON
SUNDAY...WITH H3 JET STREAK TAKING AIM ON THE PIEDMONT...AND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDGE WILL BE
REMAINING FOR PART OF THE DAY IN THE EAST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
POTENT LLVL SHEAR AS OCCLUSION/WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST. CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAINS LEADING UP TO
THIS EVENT...WATER PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE GROUND SATURATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN TAKING SHAPE DURING THE LONG TERM...WITH RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. SHRTWVS EJECTING FROM ALEUTIAN
LOW WILL BE DIRECTED INTO THE MIDWEST...ONLY AMPLIFYING THE
EASTERN TROUGH FURTHER BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE
ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STAGE IS SET FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BRIEFLY THIN THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING AND
BUILDUPS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER 21 UTC WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS. GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...BUT ANTICIPATED
ERRATIC WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS IN THE VCNTY OF TSTMS.

FOR TONIGHT THE ORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...WIDEPREAD IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH LOW CIGS ANTICIPATED. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON FRIDAY AS WESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
FINALLY... ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
MAY BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1137 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

VAZ007-010-011-018>020-WVZ042>045-091545-
TAZEWELL-BLAND-GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
1137 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS
TO BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009-012>017-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
091545-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-SMYTH-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1137 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS
TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO EXPECTED. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCERS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE AND A HALF
INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR
MORE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL TAKE RAINFALL
OF CLOSE TO THREE INCHES TO PRODUCE MORE THAN MINOR FLOOD
PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN SUNDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
917 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DOBSON                  36.39N 80.72W
05/08/2008                   SURRY              NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN IN CITY

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
929 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             2 S DOBSON              36.36N 80.72W
05/08/2008  E0.88 INCH       SURRY              NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
932 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             HURT                    37.08N 79.28W
05/08/2008  E1.00 INCH       PITTSYLVANIA       VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
938 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     HAIL             HURT                    37.08N 79.28W
05/08/2008  E1.00 INCH       PITTSYLVANIA       VA   PUBLIC

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
951 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HAIL             FRANCISCO               36.50N 80.37W
05/08/2008  E1.00 INCH       STOKES             NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1031 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     YADKINVILLE             36.13N 80.66W
05/08/2008                   YADKIN             NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES ON POWERLINES NEAR CITY

&&

TW