Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER BRIEF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR
MONDAY. WARM FRONT AND MUGGY AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...STILL WATCHING SEVERAL WEAKER
SHORTWAVES MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE WAVES WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPING DAY TIME HEATING CU FIELDS...BUT STILL
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO PEAK THROUGH. ACROSS THE COAL
FIELDS STILL SEEING SOME CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH...BUT THIS SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON LEAVE THEM WITH JUST THE ENHANCE CU FIELD AS WELL. HAVE
KEPT THE ISOLATED CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSTORM TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE...NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OR VERY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WITH ANY OF THESE SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP.

THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE SO WILL LEAVE THEM
AS IS FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE NEW MODEL RUNS REALLY DRY UP THE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CARRYOVER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN CHANGES TO THESE PERIODS WERE TO INCREASE POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS CWA RESIDES NEAR FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
WAVE. OVERALL TRIED TO KEEP POPS HIGHER FURTHER S THAN AT FIRST
GLANCE AT 00Z MODELS. THINKING PCPN WILL FAVOR SOUTHERN SIDE OF
WARM FRONT WITH BACK BUILDING DOWN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

DEW POINTS COULD REACH 70 DEGREES IN LOWLANDS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AROUND 2 INCHES.  INTRODUCED A HAZARD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
REPETITIVE SHOWERS AND A FLOOD THREAT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT IN SW VA AND EXTREME SRN WV. WETTEST AREAS ARE IN
SE OHIO AND NRN WV.  BUT WE ARE NOW IN METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...SO
WOULD NEED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO START A REAL CONCERN.

LOOKING BACK AT MONDAY...SOME CU MAY TRY TO BUILD IN AFTERNOON OVER
SE OHIO AND NE KY...BUT LEFT POPS AOB 14 PCT FOR NOW.

TIMING THE INITIAL PCPN WITH WARM FRONT TOUGH.  00Z NAM FASTER...BUT
WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT.  WILL TRY TO HOLD POPS DOWN THRU MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE RAMPING UP SW TO NE TUESDAY.

OF COURSE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND DURATION OF THE SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONCE AGAIN...HPC PREFERS THE ECMWF FOR DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD. THE
MAIN FEATURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FLATTENING OF THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER OUR AREA...ALLOWING AN EAST TO WEST QUASISTATIONARY
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
THIS SETS UP BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE LAST OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRAVERSES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN SETTING UP THIS BOUNDARY FURTHEST
NORTH...SO PREFER THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA PER ECMWF. DEEP MOISTURE INFLOW WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN...THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS...CLOSER TO NORMAL
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

PRECIP WINDS DOWN LATER WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTING SHORT
WAVE...ALONG WITH A SLOW DISSIPATION OF THE FRONT AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AGAIN...PREFER THE STRONGER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF WITH THIS SUMMER LIKE FEATURE SETTING UP FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. BERMUDA HIGH KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PUMPING INTO THE AREA WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK...BUT DEVELOPING CAP ALOFT WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
CONVECTION TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...
COMBINATION OF WEAK COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING ACROSS
THE AREA IS GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH IS
PRODUCING HAIL. THESE SHOWERS ARE PUSHING SE ACROSS NRN WV AND AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE.
EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AS THE
FRONT PASSES. TOWARD EVENING...EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
TRYING TO EXIT THE REGION AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND
DOWN ACROSS SERN WV...POSSIBLY STILL AFFECTING BKW AROUND 00Z.
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS...DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE AREA...CLEARING THE SKY AND RETURNING VFR CONDITIONS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER HEAD TONIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES
AND RIVER FOG SHOULD DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED SOME MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST. FOG LIFTS BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN POSITION.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 12Z MONDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...ESS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-
037>040-046-047-020700-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-
CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
300 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAVY RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINS OF OVER 2 INCHES WOULD BE
NEEDED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ON SMALL STREAMS.
YET...REPETITIVE SHOWERS COULD FALL OVER THE SAME STREAM
BASINS...SO THE FLOOD HAZARD EXISTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024>026-033>036-020700-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-
300 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KTB

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