Severe Thunderstorm Warning 254, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MOISTURE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE THE HIGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DRIVE THE FORMATION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE RIDGES INTO THIS EVENING.
THESE WILL DISAPPEAR WITH THE SUNS ENERGY.

WEAK WAVE WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE WITH THE FOCUS ON THE NORTH WHERE THE
VORT IS THE STRONGEST.

TEMPERATURES ON MAV LAST NIGHT WERE TOO LOW AND THAT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL MEAN RADIATION CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS TROUGH PASSES BY ON FRIDAY...FEEL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN
DRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

FORECASTED HIGHS FROM MORNING UPDATE STILL LOOK GOOD...SO ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS.  LOWS WERE TWEAKED DOWNWARD CLOSER TO LATEST
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.  AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

MAY BE A FEW STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT ANYWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

FELY HPC HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...SO
TWEAKED DOWNWARD.  LOW TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TIL MIDNIGHT EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR IN A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH IS BEING CAUSED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERLY FLOW. THESE WILL DIE WITH SUNSET. IFR FOG
WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE THEN LAST NIGHT FOCUSING ON NORMAL WORSE
LOCATIONS AS SOME MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MEAN THE
RADIATION CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 12Z THURSDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AAR
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...AAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
409 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-140815-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
409 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.