Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES RUNNING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH
A WAVE MOVING ALONG IT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED MIDWAY THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF ISOLATED CONVECTION NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER IL WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND MAY CLIP
WESTERN AREAS AROUND SUNRISE.

THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD TUESDAY OUT OF AHEAD OF
INCOMING FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. I PLACED HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ALONG THE FRONT...AS THIS TIME WE WILL HAVE MUCH MORE
OF A SURFACE FOCUS COMPARED TO TODAY...WHILE STILL HAVING THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OF AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL NOT ONLY KEEP ANY HEAT WAVES AWAY FROM OUR
AREA...BUT WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MAINLY IN THE 80S. THERE IS EVEN STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
FAIRLY STRONG COOL FRONT DRIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
WITH THE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO CARVE OUT THIS UPPER
TROUGH. PRIOR TO THIS FRONT ARRIVAL WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST TO LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL
BE MAINTAINED THIS PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER COOL
FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE DRY AND LESS HUMID
SIDE...WITH NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD AGAIN...LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COOL
FRONT...DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS.
HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MUCH COOL AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN...AND
ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION SUNDAY AREAWIDE...CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...WITH THE SKY CLEARING FOLLOWING THE EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTH...SEEING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MVFR TO IFR
RANGE. HOWEVER THAT LOOKS TO ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE PROBLEMS
CHANGE TO CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. TIMING THE SHORTWAVE
OFF THE NAM MODELS BRINGS INITIAL CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES AT AROUND 11Z AT PKB AND THEN TOWARD 13Z AND 14Z AT
CKB AND EKN. FURTHER SOUTH THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE
CONVECTION WILL GET WITH THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH. FOR
NOW HAVE NOT PLAYED MUCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES...BUT HTS WOULD BE
THE MOST VULNERABLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z SHOULD CONVECTION NOW OVER
CVG HOLD TOGETHER. AS THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST EXPECT THAT
THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFR WITH VSBY GETTING BACK TOWARD MVFR TO VFR.

BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH...AS IT IS
STRONG IN NRN OHIO AND INDIANA THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AS THE CLOUDS SCATTERED INTO A CU FIELD.

AROUND 18Z TO 20Z...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST. IT IS
CURRENTLY OVER NRN MISSOURI AND KANSAS. THE MODELS SHOW THAT THIS
WAVE WILL TRACK EAST AND SHOULD GENERATE MORE CONVECTION AGAIN
FOCUSING ITS ENERGY ON THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA...BUT IT
COULD GENERATE MORE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SO HAVE ADDED MORE
RESTRICTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL CLEAR BY
00Z...BUT THEN OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GET THE PUSH IT
NEEDS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH THE SHARPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TAKING PLACE AND THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
MORE PRECIPITATION AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS CONVECTION SHOULD
AGAIN DEVELOP.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP/JMV
NEAR TERM...JKF
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...ESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1059 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

OHZ076-WVZ009-017-019-220400-
RITCHIE-WASHINGTON-WIRT-WOOD-
1059 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL WIRT...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...WEST CENTRAL RITCHIE AND WOOD COUNTIES...

AT 1054 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BELPRE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 26 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA-SIZED HAIL.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR FLEMING...AND LITTLE HOCKING AROUND 1105
PM...WASHINGTON AROUND 1110 PM...BELPRE...BLENNERHASSETT...AND LUBECK
AROUND 1115 PM...PARKERSBURG...VIENNA...AND NORTH HILLS AROUND 1120
PM AND DAVISVILLE AROUND 1130 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1123 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRAFTON                 39.34N 80.02W
07/21/2008                   TAYLOR             WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AT GRAFTON AND OTHER PLACES.

&&

AROCHE