Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Charleston, WV

000 
WWUS51 KRLX 301734
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

KYC127-301745-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-080630T1745Z/
LAWRENCE KY-
133 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM EDT
FOR LAWRENCE COUNTY IN KENTUCKY...

AT 129 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FALLSBURG...OR ABOUT NEAR YATESVILLE LAKE
STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS 
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS STORM. 

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUCHANAN BY 140 PM EDT...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3822 8272 3825 8261 3818 8261 3816 8264
      3806 8255 3802 8254 3800 8281 3798 8285
      3799 8288 3799 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 262DEG 23KT 3817 8263

$$

25

000 
WWUS51 KRLX 301744
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

KYC127-301753-
/O.EXP.KRLX.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-080630T1745Z/
LAWRENCE KY-
143 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LAWRENCE COUNTY IN KENTUCKY
EXPIRES AT 145 PM EDT...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS AND NO LONGER POSES A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THUS THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS 
AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3822 8272 3825 8261 3818 8261 3816 8264
      3806 8255 3802 8254 3800 8281 3798 8285
      3799 8288 3799 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 262DEG 23KT 3818 8255

$$

25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1039 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES TODAY SPREADING SPRING LIKE WEATHER TO THE
ENTIRE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND DOMINATES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY BUT MAY THEN STALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW A CLEARLY DEFINED VORT MAX ROTATING
THROUGH KY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE
CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE AND UPPER LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME LACK OF
DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO LOW TO MID CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY OVER SE OH
AND WV.

UPPED POPS FOR FOR A LITTLE EARLIER START TO PRECIP...AND BROUGHT
UP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OTHER WISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

ACTIVITY ENDS FROM THE WEST AS ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES AND WE
ENTER SUBSIDENCE REGION ON BACKSIDE OF VORT LOBE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A WELCOME CHANGE TO DRY WEATHER TUE AND
WED...ALBEIT COOL.  OPTED TO LEAVE POPS THAT WERE REMOVED FOR TUE
OUT.  WEAK UPPER TROUGH LINGERS BUT HEIGHTS AND UPPER TEMPERATURES
ARE HIGHER...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED.

NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL SHOWN TO APPROACH THU AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA THU NT.  SPED UP ONSET OF POPS AGAIN THU.  RETURN FEED APPEARS
LIMITED AT LEAST INITIALLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THU APPEARS LIMITED AS WELL AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS TUE LOOKED ON TRACK...CONSISTENT WITH THE WELL-CONVERGED
NUMBERS.  LOWERED LOWS TUE NT TOWARD THE NEW MEX ON RADIATIVE
COOLING.  LOWERED HIGHS THU TOWARD NEW MEX OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS MAINTAIN A BROAD LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS THE QUICKER OF BOTH MODELS IN
BRINGING IN NEXT COLD FRONT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALLING OVER NC
FOR THE WEEKEND. ECMWF HOWEVER IS LESS BULLISH WITH FRONT...SLOWING
AND STALLING JUST NORTH OF AREA FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING IT
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. DECIDED TO FOLLOW HPC CONSIDERING MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THIS ESSENTIALLY MEANS A 50/50 BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF.
AS A RESULT CHC POPS ARE MAINTAINED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SCHC FOR SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE WATER CONCERNS
SHOULD ECMWF SOLUTION PAN OUT WITH SLOW/STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXT FROM HPC LOOKED GOOD...HOWEVER RAISED MINT DAYS 5-7 OWING TO
MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLDS HV OVERSPREAD THE AREA NEGATING FG.  MRNG STRATOCU IS
TRYING TO DEVELOP /SCT025/...BUT IT IS HAVING A HARD TIME.  AS THE
UPR LVL LOW APPCHS THIS MRNG...PROB OF RW/TRW GREATLY INCS.  VFR
UNTIL 17-18Z WHEN PREVAILING RW ARE INTRODUCED AREAWIDE.  ALLOW FOR
A TEMPO MVFR THIS AFTN AT ALL AIRPORTS FOR A TRW WITH SMALL HAIL
GIVEN LOW FZL.  WIND GUST MAY EXCEED 20KTS...WHILE SUSTAIN SPEEDS
SHALL BE CLOSE TO 12KTS THIS AFTN.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AFT 0Z AS THE MID LVL WAVE WL BE TO OUR E.  CIGS
BORDER ON VFR/MVFR THRESHOLDS THIS EVNG.  STRATOCU LIFTS AFT 6Z FM W
TO E...HWVR THIS CREATES FG POTENTIAL DURING THE PREDAWN.
INTRODUCED MVFR VIS AT ALL AIRPORTS SAVE FOR BKW AFT 8Z.  WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE WDSPRD IFR THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE FCST /ESP HTS
AND PKB/ IF CLEARING OCCURS EARLIER.  FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
6-12Z TUE TIME FRAME.

.AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 12Z TUE/...IFR FG PSBL WED MRNG.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/29
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
401 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-010815-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
401 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT PASSES OVERHEAD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.