Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
731 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS DURING MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OHIO RIVER INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CWA OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TIL 01Z-02Z.

AIRMASS WITH LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
OHIO THIS EVENING. LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY AFTER FROPA FOR LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BRING LIKLIHOOD FOR SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...WITH
ENHANCING VORTICITY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL. MODELS DEPICT
ANOTHER S/W ROTATING THROUGH SHARP H5 TROUGH MONDAY DURING THE AFTN
HOURS. WBZ LEVELS WILL BE A LIL LOWER MONDAY THAN ON SUNDAY...WITH
STEEPER LAPSE RATES. SO EXPECT HAIL THREAT TO CONTINUE WITH STRONGER
CELLS. MENTIONED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN WX GRIDS DURING
AFTN/EVENING HRS ON MON. LEFT CHC POPS IN DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL. AFTN STORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AS
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. ACCOUNTED FOR WITH SCHC POPS.

MET AND MAV HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON MONDAY OWING TO
DEEPER TROUGH ON BOTH MODELS. NOT READY TO BITE ON YET...BUT DID
TREND DOWNWARD A FEW TICKS ON MINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHARP H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY WEDNESDAY...REPLACED BY MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW...WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BY FRIDAY
ECMWF...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GFS...ARE TRYING TO DIG ANOTHER
TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN WESTERN CONUS.
THIS WOULD ESSENTIALLY KEEP SYSTEMS BRUSHING THE AREA...WITH HOWEVER
ONE SYSTEM LOOKS TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH ON DAY 6 TO INCLUDE LOW CHC
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ANOTHER PORE POTENT S/W COULD AFFECT AREA
DAY 7...WITH SCHC POPS INSERTED AS A RESULT.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. DID TWEAK DEWPOINTS
THROUGHOUT NEAR TRISTATE AREA...AS VALUES SEEMED A FEW DEGREES TOO
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OHIO RIVER INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
MOVING E-SE AT 20-30 KTS. ECHO TOPS OVER FL400 IN STRONGER STORMS
BUT MOST AT OR BELOW FL350. SFC WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 50 KTS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TIL 02Z...THEN GUSTS SHOULD TAPER DOWN TO 30-40
KTS OVERNIGHT. ALL CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST OR DISSIPATE BETWEEN 07-09Z.

FOG IN MTN SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE.

MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IN VICINITY...SOME STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS.

.AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 00Z MON/...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/29
NEAR TERM...JKF
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JKF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ009>011-291800-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-
155 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 629 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047-
291800-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-
RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-
HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-
UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
155 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 630 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS
AFTEERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
726 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

KYZ101>103-OHZ086-087-WVZ005-290015-
BOYD-CARTER-GALLIA-GREENUP-LAWRENCE-WAYNE-
726 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CARTER AND GREENUP COUNTIES
IN KENTUCKY...AND LAWRENCE COUNTY IN OHIO...

NEAR 725 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AROUND 35 MPH..THROUGH CARTER AND GRAYSON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...AND LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OHIO.

BETWEEN 730 AND 830 PM...THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF GREENUP AND
CARTER COUNTIES...AND AFFECT BOYD COUNTY...PLUS LAWRENCE AND GALLIA
COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS WOULD INCLUDE SUCH TOWNS AS ASHLAND
AND IRONTON.

BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THOSE WINDS COULD CAUSE SOME TREE LIMBS TO SNAP...AND EVEN POWER
OUTAGES.  SEEK SHELTER INDOORS...IF LIGHTNING IS SEEN OR THUNDER IS
HEARD.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS POSTED. IF ANY CELL PULSES TO
A STRONGER LEVEL...A BRIEF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WOULD BE
POSTED.

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
729 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHESTER                 39.08N 81.92W
06/28/2008                   MEIGS              OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN IN ROADS.

&&

ABEAVERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
740 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BELPRE                  39.28N 81.59W
06/28/2008                   WASHINGTON         OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN.

&&

ABEAVERS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
822 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

WVZ008-016>019-290100-
CALHOUN-JACKSON-RITCHIE-ROANE-WIRT-
822 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CALHOUN...NORTHERN
JACKSON...NORTHERN ROANE...SOUTHWESTERN RITCHIE AND WIRT COUNTIES...

AT 820 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELIZABETH...MOVING
EAST AT 33 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CHERRY AROUND 830 PM...CRESTON AROUND 835
PM...ANNAMORIAH AROUND 840 PM...BROHARD AROUND 845 PM...GRANTSVILLE
AROUND 850 PM AND SMITHVILLE AROUND 855 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

26