Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
343 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO WILL WEAKEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG THE
FRONT AT MID AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO THOSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA WHICH ARE AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AT BEST...ENOUGH HEATING AND
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO INITIATE THE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...WITH LOSS OF THE ALL IMPORTANT HEATING...CONVECTION WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS NOTED
UP NORTH WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...HAVE HUNG ONTO SOME CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEAST...BUT MINIMIZING POPS. FOG IS TRICKY TONIGHT...A BIG
FACTOR IN BEING IF TERMINALS GET A GOOD SHOWER. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS IN WITH VERY WEAK GRADIENT...SO WINDS WILL GO NEAR
CALM MANY AREAS. BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...HAVE
RESTRICTED SIGNIFICANT FOG TO THE USUAL VALLEYS AND RIVERS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS TRYING TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION AS ANOTHER
UPPER IMPULSE COMES ACROSS...BUT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NO LOW LEVEL FOCUSING OVER OUR AREA...HAVE LIMITED MINOR POPS TO THE
NORTHEAST. TOOK A BLEND OF TEMP GUIDANCE FOR MAXES THURSDAY...WELL
BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEPT POPS OUT OF THURSDAY EVENING...AS INFLUENCE OF IMPULSE SHOULD
WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  MOISTURE ROTATES OUT...AND H500
HEIGHTS RISE A BIT ON THE BACKSIDE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN FOR FRIDAY.  CWA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN
TWO IMPULSES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.
WHILE THE NORTHERN RIPPLE SHOULD NOT AFFECT OUR AREA...INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SNEAKS IN TO REQUIRE THEM.  POPS FADE AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT.

A BIT STRONGER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY.  STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE EXACT TRACK.  KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVEL
FOR NOW UNTIL UNCERTAINTY IRONS OUT.

MOS TEMPERATURES WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT AND DID NOT
STRAY FAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAN WITH HPC IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED...WHICH WERE BASICALLY A MIX OF
ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES.  LOOKING AT A CONTINUATION OF THE EASTERN
TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE SETUP...WITH A POTENTIAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF
THIS PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARDS SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FRONTAL SYSTEM PULLS ACROSS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  A MODEST
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD AND BEST MIDLEVEL SUPPORT
FROM H500 SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA...SO DO NOT
EXPECT A GREAT DEAL OF RAINFALL.  CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON MONDAY REQUIRES A SMALL POP AS HEIGHTS BOTTOM
OUT ONCE AGAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.  KEPT
FORECAST DRY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND MOISTURE PULLS AWAY.  SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.  HPC TEMPERATURES TAKEN
WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY...
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. THUNDERSTORMS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS...SO
HAVE MENTIONED CB ONLY TO INDICATE THEY WILL BE AROUND. SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS GO NEARLY
CALM...ESPECIALLY AT THOSE TERMINALS THAT MAY RECEIVE RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE THE FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
320 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-190730-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
320 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
336 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

WVZ007-008-016-018-182020-
ROANE WV-MASON WV-CALHOUN WV-JACKSON WV-
336 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE CONCERNING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 336 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MASON COUNTY TO NORTHWESTERN ROANE COUNTY...OR FROM 7 MILES EAST OF
GALLIPOLIS TO JUST EAST OF RIPLEY AND JUST SOUTH OF
SANDYVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 24 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS LINE OF STORMS
  INCLUDE... LOONEYVILLE...TARIFF...HARMONY...STATTS MILLS...GAY AND
  FAIRPLAIN.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
448 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

WVZ008-014-015-182115-
KANAWHA WV-PUTNAM WV-JACKSON WV-
448 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 448 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LIBERTY...OR NEAR 18 MILE CREEK IN NORTHERN PUTNAM COUNTY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 33 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SISSONVILLE.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

12

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