Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
151 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PULLS EAST TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT PASSES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING IN
THE NORTH...AND MORE CLOUDS AND TRWS IN THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BOTH THE 12 NAM AND GFS MODELS PUSHING FRONT FURTHER TO THE EAST
A LITTLE FASTER TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION.
HAVE TRANSITIONED DRYING TREND FURTHER TO THE EAST AND REDUCED
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 5H RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SE US WED. RIDGING WILL BE WEAKER THIS TIME BUT SOME
MOISTURE CREEPS NORTH IN RETURN FLOW BY THURSDAY...TOUCHING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. KEPT MENTION OF ISOLD DIURNAL POPS FOR
MOUNTAINS... ESPECIALLY IN THE S. FOR TEMPS KEPT CLOSE TO MAV
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM TAKES DIP TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...SUGGESTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
5H TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CROSS AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
GFS MAY BE TRENDING A LITTLE FAST WITH THIS FEATURE. PER HPC
GUIDANCE HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FRIDAY WITH THE DIGGING
TROUGH...THUS KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY
TRENDS CONTINUING OR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEKN AS IS COMMON WILL BE IN IFR FOR MOST OF TIME THROUGH 12Z.
HOWEVER...KCRW AND POSSIBLY KCKB WILL LIKELY BE JOINING KEKN WITH
IFR OR WORSE THANKS TO MOISTURE FROM A THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER IN THE EVENING /HEAVIER AT KCRW...MUCH LIGHTER
NEAR KCKB/. DURING THE DAY...FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST WITH
POTENTIALLY GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF IFR DURING
14Z-21Z TIME PERIOD. IN WAKE OF FRONT...GOOD FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS FORMATION LIKELY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SKY CLEARS
OUT...AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET. RIGHT NOW FIGURING ON DEGRADATION
TO AT LEAST MVFR BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...BUT ON THE WAY TO IFR OR WORSE
FOR MOST SITES.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY/...SIGNIFICANT FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS FORMATION POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF
FRONT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. KEKN LIKELY TO
REPEAT IFR OR WORSE FOG LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KMC/CL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...MDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-110800-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
349 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SOME
STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1134 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

WVZ016-018-027>029-037-100415-
BRAXTON WV-ROANE WV-CALHOUN WV-GILMER WV-CLAY WV-NICHOLAS WV-
1134 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 1134 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ROANE COUNTY TO WEST CENTRAL NICHOLAS COUNTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS LINE OF STORMS
  INCLUDE... SERVIA...STRANGE CREEK...EXCHANGE...WILSIE...FRAMETOWN
  AND SHOCK.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. IF YOU
CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STORM TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. GO TO A SAFE PLACE IMMEDIATELY.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1136 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             5 SE ALUM CREEK         38.24N 81.74W
06/09/2008  E0.88 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   PUBLIC

1103 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTH CHARLESTON        38.36N 81.71W
06/09/2008                   KANAWHA            WV   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE ON MONTROSE DRIVE.

&&

RYOUNG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1200 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW GAULEY BRIDGE     38.14N 81.29W
06/09/2008                   FAYETTE            WV   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON RT 60 ONE HALF MILE EAST OF ALLOY

&&

NWEBB

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