Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
617 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. LOWS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT YIELD RAINFALL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEGINNING A HEALTHY
DOSE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
INFILTRATE THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY CLOUDIER THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE DECENT
INSOLATION...EXPECTING MAX T VALUES TO PUSH THE LOW 70S...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOW LANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA. THE NEW AIR MASS ADVECTED IN
WILL NOT INCREASE THE SURFACE MOISTURE ALL THAT MUCH HOWEVER...AND
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S. THIS WILL DROP RH VALUES
INTO THE LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE...JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA.
SUSTAINED WIND THRESHOLDS ARE ALSO MARGINAL AS WELL...AND WILL FORGO
ANY RFW FOR THE TIME BEING.

RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL IS THE DIFFICULT PART OF
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE THE MOISTURE JUST
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE WELL ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
WOULD IDEALLY LIKE TO KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT CANNOT
DO THIS IN GOOD FAITH...AND FEEL THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
COME TOGETHER AT SOME POINT IN TIME TODAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES...TO GET A FEW SHOWERS. A SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE IS
SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...BUT WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LACK OF MOISTURE. KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE...AND
EXPECT MOST OF THE CWA TO BE DRY. WILL SEE THIS COLD FRONT STALL AS
IT BISECTS THE CWA FROM EAST TO WEST...AND WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
KEPT THE SOUTHERN ZONES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WHILE STILL
REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. KEPT AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR NOT
AFFECTED BY THE LIFTING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRY IN BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW SLOWER SOLUTIONS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE
AREA FRIDAY. SREF AND GFS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING ON THE QPF SPREADING
ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THEN...A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL PASS ON SATURDAY PROVIDING FORCING
MECHANISM FOR MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...IT SHOWS SFC CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AND DEEP SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIONS PROVIDING THE NEEDED BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WV AND ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS. A THIN CAPE SOUNDING FEATURE SUGGEST
CONDITIONS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE HAIL AT THIS TIME.

AS A RESULT HAVE SLOWED EVEN MORE THE PASSAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND LOWERED OR REMOVED POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST FRI NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED FOR FRI AND SAT WITH H8 REMAINING
AROUND 5C ON FRI AFTERNOON UNDER SOUTH FLOW AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURE REBOUNDING WITH THE UPPER WAVE PASSING
THRU ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GMOS TEMPS WERE ADAPTED AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING/TRACK ISSUES CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
STORM SYSTEM.  THE GENERAL TREND THOUGH SEEMS TO BE TO PUSH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...WITH HPC PINNING A SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AT 12Z SATURDAY.  HAVE PUSHED THE HIGHER
POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE...WITH CATEGORICAL LIMITED TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHER
QPF MAY BE REALIZED ACROSS THIS AREA...WHICH IS A BIT DRIER THAN THE
NORTH.  IF THIS PLAYS OUT...WE MAY AVOID WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL KEEP
HWO CLEAR FOR NOW.

THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT.  ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY LEAK IN ON
THE BACK SIDE TO TURN ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO SNOW...ALTHOUGH ANY
MINOR ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER RIDGES.  DRY
WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS.  RETURN FLOW TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BE PRODUCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. NEXT LOW/COLD
FRONT IS SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC THINKING/GRIDS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  DID ALTER TEMPERATURES A BIT TOWARDS THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR A FEW PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID DECK HAS ROLLED IN AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. MID DECK CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST MOVES...DROPPING CEILINGS TO THE 3500 TO 5000
FT LEVEL. BRIEF MVFR COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...MORE SO FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 12Z THURSDAY/ IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
442 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2008

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-140845-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
442 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.