Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
156 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS...WITH A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. ATMOSPHERE STILL
SHOWING AS QUITE UNSTABLE...WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.
NATIONAL CENTERS ALSO TALKING THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY ISOLATED
TORNADOES OCCURRING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE SEVERE...WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MUCH MORE STABLE DAY ACROSS THE CWA...AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REGAIN CONTROL OVER THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UNDER RISING H7 TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH EVEN WARMER H7 TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. H7 VALUES OF NEAR 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE
CENTURY MARK OVER THE BIG HORN BASIN...WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ANTICIPATED ACROSS REMAINING BASINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AGAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW.

RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING A
PACIFIC TROUGH TO BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA.
THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN WYOMING
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
PROVIDING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONT IS PUSHED SWD BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE.
JET STREAK DYNAMICS MAY ALSO COME INTO PLAY WITH EACH OF THESE
WAVES. MODELS DIVERGE THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING
A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH MOVES INTO NRN UT AND EVENTUALLY
SWRN WYO BY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS FLOW IS MUCH FLATTER WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NRN WAVE ENERGY TO STILL AFFECT THE NRN ZONES
WITH SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION. RIDGE SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HARD TO
VERIFY THIS SPRING AND SUMMER WITH GENERAL FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS WITH MONDAY BEING THE ONLY COMPLETELY
DRY DAY AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCES RETURNING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE DETAILS OF THE RIDGE LOCATION AND WLY FLOW
INFLUENCE. H7 TEMPS ON BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN EXCESS OF
20C ACROSS OUR W AND CNTRL SECTIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH
WOULD BE AROUND 100 AT 5000 FEET IN ELEVATION. GUIDANCE IS NOT
SHOWING THESE READINGS YET AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND
SOME ELY FLOW...HAVE NOT GONE WITH THESE HOT A TEMPS BUT STILL IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WILL
BE MOST NUMEROUS AND STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST OF A
KCOD-KRIW-KCPR LINE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY EAST OF A
KWRL-KRIW LINE.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE KCOD-KRIW-KCPR LINE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER APPROXIMATELY 05Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME
STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF THE AREA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES TOMORROW FOR THE EASTERN BASINS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ESPECIALLY RAISE ON FRIDAY...WITH EQUALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES...AS TEMPERATURES PUSH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE
BIG HORN BASIN...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN BASINS. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ON
THURSDAY...WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST...WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
EXPECTED. AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING A PACIFIC TROUGH TO APPROACH THE AREA. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND CASPER.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...CHURCH
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
621 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2008

WYZ017-019-030115-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-WIND RIVER BASIN-
621 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREMONT COUNTY...

AT 620 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GAS HILLS RD MILE MARKER 20...OR 22 MILES
EAST OF RIVERTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 18 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

RESIDENTS IN EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF GAS
HILLS RD MILE MARKER 20...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN WYOMING.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RIVERTON AT 1-800-211-1448.

LAT...LON 4281 10752 4255 10779 4297 10813 4308 10791
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 321DEG 16KT 4294 10799

BERC

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