Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Riverton, WY

000 
WWUS85 KRIW 131642
RFWRIW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1042 AM MDT WED AUG 13 2008

...A COMBINATION OF LOW AFTERNOON AND EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN WYOMING AND THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ACROSS THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 15 PERCENT. THIS COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA.

WYZ277>279-132300-
/O.CON.KRIW.FW.W.0007.080813T1800Z-080814T0200Z/
LINCOLN AND UINTA COUNTIES / LOWER ELEVATIONS-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN / ROCK SPRINGS BLM-
SWEETWATER COUNTY / ROCK SPRINGS BLM / FLAMING GORGE NRA-
1042 AM MDT WED AUG 13 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS COMBINED WITH FREQUENT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN...UINTA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY
AND SWEETWATER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. CRITICALLY DRY
FUELS...COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

TEAM RIVERTON

000 
WWUS85 KRIW 132149
RFWRIW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
349 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2008

...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RHS UNDER 15 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND THE UPPER GREEN
RIVER BASIN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...


WYZ277>279-140200-
/O.CON.KRIW.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080814T0200Z/
LINCOLN AND UINTA COUNTIES / LOWER ELEVATIONS-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN / ROCK SPRINGS BLM-
SWEETWATER COUNTY / ROCK SPRINGS BLM / FLAMING GORGE NRA-
349 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
8 PM THIS EVENING ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE UPPER
GREEN RIVER BASIN...UINTA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND
SWEETWATER COUNTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. CRITICALLY DRY
FUELS...COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

TEAM RIVERTON

000 
WWUS85 KRIW 140158
RFWRIW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
758 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2008



WYZ277>279-140300-
/O.EXP.KRIW.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080814T0200Z/
LINCOLN AND UINTA COUNTIES / LOWER ELEVATIONS-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN / ROCK SPRINGS BLM-
SWEETWATER COUNTY / ROCK SPRINGS BLM / FLAMING GORGE NRA-
758 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
RECOVERY IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
238 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
SUNNY NEARLY CLOUDLESS DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A FEW SMALL CUMULUS GETTING STARTED. SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER REMAINS ON TRACK WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE JUST ENTERING
THE PACNW WHILE SECOND COLDER SYSTEM REMAINS PARKED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST SHORTWAVE SNEAKS THROUGH THE
RIDGE...TEMPORARILY FLATTENING IT BUT THEN DEEPENING GULF OF
ALASKA LOW AND BUILDING SW US UPPER HIGH HELP TO SHARPEN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW TO MOVE QUICKLY SWD
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH
WEDNESDAYS SHORTWAVE BUT MOISTURE ABOVE H6 COMBINED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES...SMALL CAPE AND FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH. MODELS NOW IN MUCH BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH OUR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY UPPER LOW TRACKING IT SWD INTO WRN SD BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN INTO A GENERAL SRN NE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING
TURNING MOST AREAS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. AS USUAL...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY AND THE RED
DESERT WHERE 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED. VERY COOL H7 AIR
MOVES IN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OUR NERN ZONES POSSIBLY
DROPPING AS LOW AS 0C WHICH EQUATES TO A SNOW LEVEL NEAR 8500
FEET. NAM12 NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE GFS BUT HAVE CONTINUED IDEA
OF SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SEVERAL INCHES...OR MORE...OF
WET SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. WE WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY AND HIT THE
BIG HORNS HARDER IN THE COMING 24 HOURS IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS OUR NERN ZONES FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
CHANCES DECREASING FURTHER WEST WITH OUR CURRENT TRACK. ANY
FURTHER WWD SHIFT WILL THREATEN THE CENTRAL ZONES WITH MORE PCPN.
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ALL WE NEED IS SOME ADDITIONAL
FORCING TO GET SOME STEADY PCPN. CURRENT TRACK OVER WRN SD IS A
LITTLE TOO FAR E. HOWEVER...NEW 18Z NAM12 IS COMING IN MUCH FURTHER
WEST AGAIN. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN JOHNSON COUNTY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY. EITHER WAY...OUR FIRST
TOUCH OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS HEADED OUR WAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOLING 15-20 DEGREES EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY FRIDAY
WITH LESS COOLING IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A TASTE OF FALL WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER
WEST...COOLER AND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AS WELL AS
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AFTER FRIDAY...AS IT MOVES THE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING IT OUT...WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING/WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVING SAID THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH A DECENT SHOT AT SOME RAIN.
HAVE GONE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS...EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON
FRIDAY...BUT THIS MIGHT NEED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED IF
MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING 700 MB TEMPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE
BETWEEN 0 AND +2 DEG CELSIUS...COULD SEE SNOW ABOVE AROUND 9500
FEET...WITH A MIXTURE EVEN LOWER. HAVE CONTINUED DAY SHIFTS TREND
OF LOWERING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MUCH BELOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT POPS GOING ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST SATURDAY TO RESPECT THE
OPERATIONAL GFS...BUT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS LOW SLOWLY
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
MIDWEST...WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS CUT OFF CLOSED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS
THE FAVORED AREAS...ALLOWING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO BE FOUND AT KRKS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER BEGINS TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. MIN RHS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT STILL IN THE TEENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NRN MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A STRONG AND COLDER SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND ERN ZONES ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. MIN RHS WILL CONTINUE THEIR RISE EACH DAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
500 AM MDT TUE AUG 12 2008

WYZ001>020-022>030-131100-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
500 AM MDT TUE AUG 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TEAM RIVERTON