Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Reno, NV

000 
WWUS55 KREV 130000
SVSREV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
457 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008

CAC017-130010-
/O.CAN.KREV.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-080713T0030Z/
EL DORADO CA-
457 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN EL DORADO COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT EARLIER PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS 
WEAKENED...THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED. 
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA 
THROUGH 7 PM PDT AND WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY 
WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND SMALL HAIL.

IF YOU OBSERVED ANY WIND DAMAGE...HAIL...OR FLOODING FROM THE STORM 
EARLIER...REPORT IT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO. CALL 
OUR OFFICE AT 775-673-8100. YOUR REPORTS HELP US IMPROVE OUR WARNING 
PROCESS.

LAT...LON 3902 12013 3897 11999 3887 12009 3894 12016
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 159DEG 1KT 3894 12009

$$

GMCGUIRE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SIERRA SOUTH OF ALPINE
COUNTY...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA. A FEW
MORE HOURS OF HEATING LEFT...SO CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE BUT
WITH LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL NORTH OF
TAHOE.

MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES...WHERE
GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. ANY CONVECTIVE TOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH THE INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS. SURFACE DEW POINTS ALSO ON THE RISE...WHICH WOULD HELP
LIGHT RAIN REACH THE LOWEST VALLEYS. MODERATE RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH TONIGHT AS THE ANTICYCLONE
CENTER MOVES EAST AND BRINGS A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS ALOFT. SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS ABOUT THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING...WHICH WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES.

EXPECTING A BIT MORE CONVECTION FOR TOMORROW WITH THE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. MODELS
SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY...BUT ONLY IN A SHALLOW LAYER. LACK
OF INSTABILITY ABOVE 400 MB WILL INHIBIT DEEP TOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS. BEST CHANCES TOMORROW WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50...WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA NORTH OF LAKE TAHOE. DID
REMOVE STORMS FROM THE FORECAST FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
SUSANVILLE TO FALLON.

DRIER AIR WORKS IN WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW NORTH OF US-50 ON
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES NEAR THE NEVADA-UTAH BORDER.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF US-50 HAS AN
OUTSIDE SHOT AT FIRING A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

GFS DOES SHOW A WAVE NEARING THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAS
MINIMAL SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODELS. DID LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY.

/SMOKE AND HAZE POTENTIAL/
AMOUNTS SMOKE AND HAZE SHOULD REMAIN STEADY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL
SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE SUNDAY AS SOME LATE AFTERNOON WEST WINDS
DEVELOP...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS. SMOKE AND
HAZE HAS GREATER POTENTIAL TO CAUSE CONCERNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LONGER DURATION OF WEST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. BRONG

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE FEATURE MOVING OVER THE PAC NW
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE
WAVE...AND KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA. THE GFS HAS
MORE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND BUILDS THE RIDGE QUICKLY NORTH INTO
THURSDAY. EITHER SCENARIO SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON WEDNESDAYS
WEATHER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME
WINDS OVER NRN AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR SRN ZONES AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO
PUSH OUT.

THE EUROPEAN BRINGS MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE RIDGE IN PLACE WITH LITTLE PUSH FOR
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO EXIT SRN ZONES. THE GFS EVEN GENERATES
QPF ON THURSDAY OVER MONO COUNTY. CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE...THE GFS MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LINGERING
INSTABILITY. GHOST POPS WERE EXPANDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADDING TSTMS THAT FAR
OUT. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DO SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING THE NRN CA COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT
DIFFER GREATLY ON DETAILS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS WAVE TRACKS IT
COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY TSTMS NEXT WEEKEND AS PWAT VALUES
ARE VERY LOW... BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL THIS FAR OUT.

AFTER A GRADUAL COOLING EARLY IN THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN INCREASING WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S OVER WRN NV AND
INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE SIERRA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GMCGUIRE

&&

.AVIATION...

A VERY THIN LAYER OF SMOKE CAN BE OBSERVED ALOFT AROUND THE
AREA...HOWEVER SURFACE VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE UNRESTRICTED.
VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER BRIEFLY TO 5SM THIS EVENING AT KTRK AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SMOKE IS PUSHED EAST FROM THE FIRE EAST OF
KBLU. HOWEVER 700 MB FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE EAST TONIGHT
THEREFORE ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE BRIEF.

CONVECTION IS INCREASING ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY AND
SHOULD DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
03Z-04Z. ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TAHOE BASIN WITH
CHANCES TOO LOW TO ADD TSTMS TO THE KTVL TAF AT THIS TIME. LESS OF A
CHANCE OF -TSRA EXISTS FURTHER NORTH AT KTRK/KRNO. TSTM CHANCES
INCREASE TOMORROW WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF -TSRA AT KTVL/KRNO.
GMCGUIRE

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
354 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008

CAZ072-130000-
GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-
354 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN NEAR
MARKLEEVILLE...

AT 349 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GROVER HOT SPRINGS...OR NEAR
MARKLEEVILLE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...AND SMALL
PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE OR HIKERS NEAR STEEP TERRAIN OR NEAR SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF HEAVY RAIN AS LOCAL FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR VERY QUICKLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/RENO ON THE
INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

GMCGUIRE