Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Reno, NV

000 
WWUS85 KREV 091618
RFWREV

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
918 AM PDT SAT AUG 9 2008

CAZ270-278-NVZ458-100300-
/O.CON.KREV.FW.W.0007.080809T1800Z-080810T0300Z/
SURPRISE VALLEY CALIFORNIA-EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY-
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY-
918 AM PDT SAT AUG 9 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY IN EASTERN
LASSEN...EASTERN MODOC AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL COMBINE
WITH HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THOUGH 8 PM. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR.  CONTINUE TO CHECK WEATHER.GOV/RENO/FIRE FOR UPDATES.

$$

BRONG

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO/FIRE

000 
WWUS85 KREV 100243
RFWREV

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
743 PM PDT SAT AUG 9 2008

CAZ270-278-NVZ458-100345-
/O.EXP.KREV.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080810T0300Z/
SURPRISE VALLEY CALIFORNIA-EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY-
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY-
743 PM PDT SAT AUG 9 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING. 

WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED AND HUMIDITIES ARE INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE GUSTING TO AROUND
25 MPH UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO/FIRE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 AM PDT SAT AUG 9 2008

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW IS SLIDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY. STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WE WILL SEE A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
KEEP WINDS GENERALLY GUSTY AGAIN TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY
WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHERE
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 MPH. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 90 DEGREES IN RENO. IF WE
HIT 90 DEGREES TODAY...THIS WILL SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE LONGEST
STREAK OF 90+ DEGREE DAYS IN RENO. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
AND RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WEEK.  HOON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ONCE AGAIN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THEN START TO DIVERGE. FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE RGN FOR TUESDAY. ECMWF HOLDS ON TO
RIDGING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK WHILE OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATES TROF
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. WHILE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
SUPPORT FOR GFS...MOST DO NOT. ECMWF MAINTAINS GOOD RIDGING OVER THE
RGN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TROF DEVELOPING IN THE E PAC...BUT GFS SHOWS
TROF DEVELOPING EARLIER ALONG THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE RGN AND
ALSO INDICATES SOME TROFFING ACROSS ERN WA/OR AND ID EXTENDING BACK
INTO NRN CA. IN FACT BY LATE FRI GFS HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO
THE CNTRL CA COAST. A CLOSED LOW OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN MID AUGUST
SEEMS A BIT OVER DONE. ENSEMBLES BY THIS TIME INDICATE VARYING
DEGREES OF RIDGING...INDICATING MORE SUPPORT FOR THE ECMWF. A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME TROFFINESS...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS DOES.

GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED
FORECAST. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MLF

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO WITH
TYPICAL AFTN ZEPHYR WIND DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN. GUST WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE FOR KRNO AND A LITTLE LESS FOR OTHER TAF
SITES. MLF

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONTINUATION OF SW FLOW ALOFT TODAY WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTN. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
NOT INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF MID TO UPPER LVL DRYING...THERE IS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT AS INDICATED ON U/A SOUNDINGS. HUMIDITY
RECOVERY HAS BEEN WORSE TONIGHT THAT PREVIOUS NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
NRN CWA AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED BY DAY SHIFT FRIDAY. WHILE
CONDITIONS MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL AGAIN TODAY...GUSTY WINDS IN THE 35
MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF ZONE 278 AND 458 AND
AS WELL AS ZONE 270 TODAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER SHORT WAVE AND
PRESENCE OF SFC FRONT. LOW LVL GRADIENT DOERS NOT SEEM AS TIGHT
TODAY BUT 30 MB AGL WINDS DO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS GREATER
THAN 30 MPH TODAY THOSE ZONES. FARTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM UPPER SHORT
WAVE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. STARTING FROM A DRIER POINT RH
VALUES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL BLOW 15% BY EARLY AFTN. THUS WILL
UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES
270...278 AND 458 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AGAIN BY TONIGHT. MLF

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NVZ458.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NVZ002-004.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ270-278.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ071-072.

&&

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO