Lake Wind Advisory 3, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1220 PM PST MON JAN 7 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE TODAY AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS
FOR TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. I ALSO QUICKLY ADJUSTED THE REST OF
THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. SNYDER
&&

.PREV SHORT TERM...ISSUED AT 327 AM PST
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A JET MAX ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH A PULLING IT TO THE EAST.  MID TO HIGH
CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING SCATTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN.  HOWEVER
CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SCT TO BKN HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING ON THE WEST SLOPE OF THE NRN SIERRA ATTM.
SOME SPILLOVER IS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE ERN SIERRA AND WRN
NEVADA.  HOWEVER LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND
NONE IN WRN NEVADA.

A SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE NEAR 45N 145W WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON TUESDAY.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS SHOULD STAY
WELL NORTH OF THE KREV CWFA.  THE WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO NOT TAP
INTO MUCH MOISTURE SO DO NOT SEE THIS SYSTEM AS A BIG PRECIPITATION
PRODUCER...AT LEAST THIS FAR SOUTH IN THE NRN SIERRA AND NWRN
NEVADA.  TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB ARE CURRENTLY AROUND -10C TO -14C
OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN.  THE NAM AND GFS BOTH PROG WARMING AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  THE NAM WARMS 700 MB TEMPS TO -6C BY 18Z
TUESDAY.  THE GFS IS AROUND 6 HRS SLOWER WITH SIMILAR WARMING.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE PROGRESSIVE WLY FLOW WILL KEEP THIS SYSTEM
FROM DIGGING VERY MUCH THUS KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR TO OUR NORTH.
THIS COOLING WILL RAISE SNOW LEVELS ONLY TO AROUND 5K TO 6K FEET.
THUS EXPECT ALL SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  SOME RAIN IS
POSSIBLE IN WRN NEVADA VALLEYS BUT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE IN THE
SIERRA.  THE RELATIVELY LOW SNOW LEVELS AND SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF
WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE TO ANY SNOWMELT AND EXACERBATE THE FLOODING IN
THE FERNLEY AREA.  FLOOD WATERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OHARA

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WAVE WILL
PASS BY WELL TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY SOME CLOUD COVER
BUT HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS NEAR THE SIERRA
AND NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. MOST OF THIS WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS LEFT
OVER FROM THE WED NIGHT WARM FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD WARM QUITE A BIT
AND HELP TO MELT SOME OF THE SNOW IN WESTERN NEVADA...IF NOT ALL IN
AREAS THAT ONLY SAW A COUPLE INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR A BIT FOR SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS FRI/FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO WASHINGTON. OTHER THAN THESE CLOUDS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IMPACT. THEN THE MAIN RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WITH THE AXIS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. H7 TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNDAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER. CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT NIGHT AND FORMATION OF INVERSIONS.

STRENGTH OF INVERSIONS ALONG 395 CORRIDOR FROM GARDNERVILLE TO
SUSANVILLE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AND DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MELTING WED-SAT. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID 40S FOR
2 OF THOSE DAYS...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME MELTING BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO GET RID OF THE 6+ INCHES OF SNOW. FURTHER EAST WHERE SNOW WAS
LESS SHOULD MELT ALL OF THE SNOW. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT...BUT WILL NOT REACH FULL POTENTIAL AS
THE MELTING SNOW WILL RESULT IN ADDED MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HAVE PUT IN PATCHY FOG FRIDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING IN
THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGHS IN THESE AREAS TO
NEAR OR BELOW 40 DEGREES. WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD DURING
THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...DO EXPECT SOME FOG FORMATION BUT NOT NEARLY
AS BAD AS 3 YEARS AGO. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN IN THE SIERRA THIS MORNING.
ONLY 20 PCT CHANCE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TEMPORARILY REDUCING
CIGS/VSBYS AT KTVL/KTRK THROUGH 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUES. 30 PCT CHANCE OF KTRK FOGGING IN
TONIGHT BUT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NEXT STORM MAY PREVENT IT SO NOT
MENTIONING IN TAFS ATTM.

NEXT STORM FOR TUES/TUES EVE NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE LAST...WITH
LOWERED CIGS/VIS TO IFR AT TIMES FROM 18Z THROUGH 03Z. FOR KRNO...DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH ONLY POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FROM 00Z TO 03Z WED. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

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