Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN CA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCT STORMS YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW DROPPED AS MUCH AS
0.6 TO NEAR 1.0 INCH OF RAIN IN ERN CHURCHILL COUNTY AND UP TO 0.10
INCH ELSEWHERE IN NV. SURFACE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN TO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...BUT ALSO INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60F IN WRN NV WHERE MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS LINGER. ISOLD SHOWERS AND OCNL TSTMS ARE STILL ONGOING
EARLY THIS MORNING IN ALL BUT THE TAHOE BASIN AND MUCH OF LASSEN
COUNTY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE LOW AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE ACROSS NV AND FAR NERN CA SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL ISOLD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH MIDDAY.

PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1 INCH FROM MINERAL COUNTY
NORTH THROUGH PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES WITH MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
NEAR 0.75 INCH OR MORE. SOME DRYING ALONG THE CREST IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND PUSHES
MOISTURE FURTHER EAST. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING INITIALLY LOOKS TO BE IN MONO/MINERAL
COUNTIES NORTHEAST INTO CHURCHILL/PERSHING COUNTIES. INSTABILITY IS
HIGHER TODAY IN THOSE AREAS WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SMALL HAIL. GUSTY WINDS
MAY ALSO OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER STORM CELLS.

THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED OF THE
LOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GFS IS STILL THE FASTEST AND
FURTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS AND WANTS TO STABILIZE ALL BUT THE FAR
NRN/ERN AREAS QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND PUSH ANY STORMS OUT OF
THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. IT KEEPS MOST OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE NAM/EURO ARE STILL SLOWER AND FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH THE NAM BEING THE SLOWEST. CONSIDERING THE FLIP
FLOPPING THE GFS HAS BEEN DOING FOR DAYS...THE FORECAST WILL STILL
FOLLOW THE SLOWER/FURTHER SOUTH MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM.
THEREFORE...BY THIS EVENING A STRONG CONV/DIV COUPLET WILL LIKELY
FORM NORTH OF RENO IN THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE LOW. HIGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO INCREASE AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORM SPEED WILL LIKELY BE 20-30
MPH...HOWEVER TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AND DUE TO THE HIGH PWAT VALUES AND
DEWPOINTS AROUND THE AREA...THE THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING STILL
APPEARS TO BE LOW DESPITE SOME STORMS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF
LIGHTNING. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING NORTH OF A
RENO-LOVELOCK LINE OVERNIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. EVEN THE SLOWER NAM QUICKLY STABILIZES ALL BUT
THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST...WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL VALUES OF
0.30 INCH OR LESS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWAT STILL LINGERS OVER FAR SRN
AND NRN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS IN
FAVORED CONVERGENCE AREAS EAST OF LASSEN PEAK...AND IN THE
MONO/MINERAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THESE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. MUCH MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY SOME
CUMULUS BUILDUPS IN THE AFTN/EVE EXPECTED OVER NRN AND SRN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AFFECT THE AREA. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES DROP ON TUESDAY
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF EXITING LOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. GMCGUIRE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT FOR THE EXTENDED AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.  UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SITS OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP A MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND WARM WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CONFINED TO MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BOTH GFS
AND EC SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  THIS
WILL TURN THE FLOW SOUTHERLY AND PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY.  EXTENDED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES NV004/001 WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE AND MODELS POINTING AT BEST
INSTABILITY.  PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY FORCING THE FLOW BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY.  THIS WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MAX OUT NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA...AND HIGHS IN THE MID 90S FOR THE WEEKEND.
SIERRA LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  MOZLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  STORMS
WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
NEAR 40KTS AND SMALL HAIL.  SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST BETWEEN 18Z-00Z AS HEATING ADDS A BOOST TO THE INSTABILITY.

LOW MOVES INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END ABRUPTLY AT KTRK AND KTVL
BY 06Z TUESDAY AND AT KRNO BY 08-09Z TUESDAY.  THE DRY AIR WILL NOT
REACH KLOL UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

DIFFICULT PART OF TODAYS FORECAST IS TIMING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.  POTENTIAL AT ALL TERMINALS IS 10-20
PERCENT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WILL FOCUS THE TSRA IN TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
AMEND IF SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR ANY TERMINAL THROUGH 18Z.  BRONG
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WET THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY
DUE TO FOUR CORNERS HIGH PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST.  AS THE LOW MOVES NEAR ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED THAN THE TYPICAL
POPCORN VARIETY.  FAVORABLE MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES FOR SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL.  HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW CELLS LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH
OVER 100 MILES TRACK LENGTH.

TRAINING STORMS YESTERDAY EVENING PRODUCED 0.40-0.80 INCHES OF RAIN
NEAR THE DIXIE VALLEY...WITH FASTER MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL
DROPPING UP TO 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.  WILL
SEE SIMILAR AMOUNTS TODAY...AND LIKELY A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM THE
ORGANIZED STORMS AS THE LOW NEARS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BEST CHANCE FOR NEW FIRE STARTS WILL FROM STRIKES AWAY FROM THE
STORM CORES...WHICH HAVE A DECENT SIZE TO THEM.

AS THE LOW PASSES LATE TONIGHT DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AND STABILIZES MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  ONLY EXCEPTION IS
STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY.  MODELS ARE SHOWING RH DROPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER
THE HIGH SIERRA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO RH BELOW 10
PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  BRONG
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
327 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008

NVZ001-211130-
MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES-
332 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEARING HAWTHORNE AND WALKER LAKE...

AT 332 AM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAWTHORNE AND MOVING
NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN THREE MILES...SMALL PEA OR
MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
ONE HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

TRAVELERS ALONG HIGHWAY 95 FROM HAWTHORNE TO ALONG THE WEST SHORE
OF WALKER LAKE SHOULD USE CAUTION.  HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE PONDING ON
THE ROADWAY.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR FLETCHER BY 335 AM PDT.
  NEAR HAWTHORNE BY 350 AM PDT.
  NEAR HAWTHORNE INDUSTRIAL AIRPORT BY 355 AM PDT.
  NEAR WALKER LAKE BY 420 AM PDT.

BRONG

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