Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Reno, NV

000 
WGUS75 KREV 150000
FFSREV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
500 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2008

CAC003-150010-
/O.CAN.KREV.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080715T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALPINE CA-
500 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALPINE COUNTY...

THE THREAT FOR CONTINUED FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. REMEMBER THAT
MINOR FLOODING OR RUNOFF MAY CONTINUE IN LOW SPOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

IF YOU OBSERVED FLOODING EARLIER IN THE WARNED AREA...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO AT 775-673-8100. YOUR REPORTS HELP
US IMPROVE OUR WARNING PROCESS.

LAT...LON 3883 11976 3871 11959 3863 11963 3849 11955
      3842 11957 3840 11962 3866 11994

$$

HOON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
355 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SWRN CONUS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS SLOWLY BEING ADVECTED NORTH INTO THE SRN GREAT
BASIN.  THE MOISTURE GRADIENT CAN BE INFERRED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND IS VERY CLEAR FROM SFC OBSERVATIONS.  AT 0900Z DEW POINTS ACROSS
NEVADA WERE IN THE 40S AS FAR NORTH AS RENO AND FALLON.  THE AIR
MASS IS DRIER ACROSS NRN NEVADA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM LOVELOCK TO EUREKA.

THIS MOISTURE WILL HAVE AN IMPORTANT EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER TODAY.
ISOLD TSTMS DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN NEVADA AND THE ERN SIERRA SUNDAY
AFTN AND EVENING.  THE LWR AIR MASS AT THE TIME WAS RELATIVELY DRY
AND GUSTY WINDS WERE THE MAIN RESULT OF THE TSTMS.  DRY AIR EXTENDED
AS HIGH AS 500 MB ON THE SUNDAY AFTN 0Z SOUNDING AT RENO.  THIS DRY
AIR HELPED TO EVAPORATE ANY RAINFALL FROM THE STORMS AND HELPED TO
CREATE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.

THE SITUATION WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT TODAY AS THE AIR MASS IS
STARTING TO BECOME MORE MOIST.  RAINFALL WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF REACHING THE SFC AS THE LWR AIR MASS STARTS TO SATURATE.  TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  HOWEVER THE STORM
MOVEMENT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 KTS SO ANY RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY.  PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY OF THE STRONGER RAIN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN AS LIFTED INDEX
VALUES DROP TO AROUND -1.  HIGH LEVEL TOTAL TOTALS ARE PROGGED TO BE
AROUND 30 ACROSS THE SRN ZONES.  A 340K THETA-E RIDGE SHOULD MOVE
INTO WRN NEVADA BY THIS EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY WITH VALUES OF UP TO 0.75 INCH EXTENDING
NORTH TO AROUND THE HWY 50 CORRIDOR.  K INDEX VALUES OVER THE KREV
SRN ZONES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 32 BY 00Z TUESDAY.  VALUES THIS
HIGH ARE A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE MOISTENING AIR MASS.  HOWEVER...
DRY SOIL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE RAINFALL TO BE ABSORBED
SO PONDING OF WATER IS ANTICIPATED ONLY NEAR THE HEAVIEST SLOW-
MOVING SHOWERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

BY TUESDAY THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE SHOULD START TO BE PUSHED TO
THE EAST.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY OVER MONO
AND MINERAL COUNTIES IN THE AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY.  JUST A
SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS OVER FAR SRN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE LWR AIR MASS STABILIZES SOMEWHAT AND THE MAIN
MOISTURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OHARA

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE GFS CONTINUES ITS RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY. THE MONDAY 00Z MODEL
RUN WENT AWAY FROM THE IDEA OF EXPANDING THE RIDGE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO UPPER 90S OR LOW 100S OVER WESTERN NV
VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND AND NOW SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
CONUS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA. GFSX MOS GUIDANCE
NOW FORECASTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR RENO NEXT WEEKEND...AROUND
8 DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUN.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/EC SOLUTIONS KEEP A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EC DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH. BOTH
MODELS WOULD KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS CA AND NV THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS MENTIONED ABOVE.

WILL FOLLOW HPC AND USE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BUT
REMAIN SKEPTICAL OF DETAILS DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. WILL TWEAK OUR TEMP FORECASTS DOWN
SLIGHTLY...BUT KEEP THEM NEAR THE HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. RC
&&

.AVIATION...

SMOKE AND HAZE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVERNIGHT WITH ALL TAF SITES
IN THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV REPORTING VSBYS GREATER THAN
6SM AT 3AM. EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z AT WHICH TIME
HAZE/SMOKE SHOULD START TO FILTER BACK INTO THE VALLEYS AS WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY 10-15KTS. BASED ON PAST FEW DAYS...VSBYS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE.

TSTMS REMAIN A THREAT FOR ALL SITES THIS AFTN AND EVENING...
BEGINNING AROUND 20Z FOR KTVL/KTRK AND A COUPLE HOURS LATER FOR
KRNO/KLOL. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLD AT TAF SITES BUT SCATTERED ACROSS
MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES...WHERE LOCALIZED HVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WITH TSTMS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER 03Z. RC

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
212 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2008

CAZ072-073-NVZ001-003-142230-
GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA-MINERAL
AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES-MONO-
212 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT A PORTION OF HIGHWAY 395 FROM
GARDNERVILLE TO COLEVILLE...

AT 210 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WOODFORDS TO TOPAZ LAKE TO
WALKER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN
ONE MILE...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO
40 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. EXPECT PONDING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADS INCLUDING HIGHWAY 395 BETWEEN GARDNERVILLE AND
COLEVILLE...HIGHWAY 88 BETWEEN PICKETTS JUNCTION AND MINDEN...AND
HIGHWAY 89 BETWEEN WOODFORDS AND TOPAZ INCLUDING MONITOR PASS. IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...MINOR ROCK SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE. DRIVERS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY
RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/RENO ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MJD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
250 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2008

CAZ073-142315-
MONO-
250 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2008

...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER TIOGA PASS...

AT 247 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TIOGA PASS...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEE
VINING...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND
SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER
ON HIGHWAY 120 BETWEEN LEE VINING AND TIOGA PASS. ANYONE DRIVING
OVER THIS PASS TO OR FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AND USE EXTRA CAUTION. IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...MINOR ROCK SLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/RENO ON THE
INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MJD