Severe Thunderstorm Warning 466, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1019 AM...

DENSE FOG THAT BLANKETED MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING HAS LIFTED TO JUST SCATTERED LOW STATUS. SATELLITE
INDICATED THE STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO BREAK IN THE
SANDHILLS....WHERE A LARGE STRATUS DECK EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS...BUT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME MORE EVIDENT AS IT
MAKES IT WAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS
FINALLY ABLE TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS FROM GSO/MHX 12Z SOUNDINGS WERE DOWN TO 1 INCH...WHICH MAY
HELP TO LESSEN COVERAGE...BUT DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL INCREASE
THE WIND THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE FREEZING LEVEL FROM THE
MHX SOUNDING...WHICH WILL BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN... WAS DOWN TO 11 KFT...INCREASING THE THREAT OF HAIL.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING IS TO EXTEND THE
CHANCE OF STORMS WESTWARD INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
TO REFLECT THE UPDATED SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK...WHICH EXTENDS THE
SLIGHT RISK FURTHER WEST IN THE SOUTH. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF THE THE SURFACE FRONT AND BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE ZONE. STILL EXPECT BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BEST
INSTABILITY...AND UPPER LEVEL VORT ENERGY (CURRENTLY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY) CROSS PATHS. ONLY HINDRANCE TO THIS IDEA APPEARS
TO BE THE LINGERING STRATUS IN THE SOUTH...WHICH MAY LIMIT HEATING
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO MORE. STILL EXPECT BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH 80...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT HEATING.

COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY JUST
AFTER SUNSET...AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION NOTED
UPSTREAM IN UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING AND ALSO EVIDENT IN
MODEL FORECASTS...COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER VORT
MAX SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF THE 25KTS OF 925MB WIND TOWARD THE
SURFACE. DUE TO THIS...WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS BEHIND
THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZATION SHOULD
HELP KEEP GUSTS AROUND 15MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM...

DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 TO MID
70S...WARMING TO 75 TO 79 FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS 45 TO 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM...

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH. NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS MID TO UPPER
70S. LOWS IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM REVOLVES AROUND REDUCED VSBYS AND
CIGS AND WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
AND A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH. AT 17Z THE PRIMARY FRONT EXTENDS NE
TO SW FROM NEAR KDAN TO KBUY TO KRCZ. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A COUPLE OF
ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES ARE PRESENT. ONE EXTENDS ALONG AND NEAR I-95
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT AND ANOTHER LOCATED JUST EAST
ALONG A THERMAL BOUNDARY RESULTING FROM CONVECTION LAST EVENING AND FOG
THIS MORNING.

COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE W
PIEDMONT AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IS OVER AT KINT AND KGSO. STILL
COULD SEE A SHOWER AT KRDU BUT THREAT IS LIMITED UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.
FURTHER E AT KRWI AND ESPECIALLY KFAY THE ATMOSPHERE HAS A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY (STILL MARGINAL WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG) TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. IMPRESSIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AT 0-6KM NEAR 60 KTS SUGGESTS
THAT STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE ORGANIZED. BECAUSE OF THE THREAT IS
MARGINAL WILL KEEP MENTION OF WIND GUSTS OUT OF PREVAILING TAFS FOR NOW.

SFC FRONT AND TROF MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE ATMOS TO STABILIZE
AND SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH COLD ADVECTION COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS THIS EVE
AND AGAIN ON THU.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WSS
SHORT TERM...RLH
LONG TERM...RLH
AVIATION...BLAES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
146 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-021000-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
146 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 910 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP EAST OF US HIGHWAY 1 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

NCZ010-026-041-021000-
WARREN-FRANKLIN-WAKE-
146 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP EAST OF US HIGHWAY 1 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

NCZ007>009-021>025-038>040-073>076-083-084-021000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-
DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
146 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1009 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HAIL             3 ESE NEWSOM            35.52N 80.13W
09/30/2008  E0.88 INCH       DAVIDSON           NC   PUBLIC

1009 PM     HAIL             2 NE GORDONTOWN         35.77N 80.10W
09/30/2008  E0.75 INCH       DAVIDSON           NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND AND LASTED 5 MINUTES.

1009 PM     HAIL             2 N ALTAMAHAW           36.21N 79.50W
09/30/2008  E0.75 INCH       ALAMANCE           NC   POST OFFICE

1035 PM     HAIL             5 WSW BURLINGTON        36.06N 79.53W
09/30/2008  E0.75 INCH       ALAMANCE           NC   PUBLIC

1105 PM     HAIL             8 W ASHEBORO            35.70N 79.96W
09/30/2008  E0.75 INCH       RANDOLPH           NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

ORROCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1043 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             4 SSW LEXINGTON         35.76N 80.28W
09/30/2008  E0.75 INCH       DAVIDSON           NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND TO A DEPTH OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES.

&&

ORROCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
212 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

NCZ042-077-088-089-011915-
CUMBERLAND-HARNETT-JOHNSTON-SAMPSON-
212 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CUMBERLAND...
HARNETT AND SAMPSON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF EASTOVER...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTH OF FAYETTEVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 26 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR WADE AROUND 225 PM EDT...LINDEN
AROUND 230 PM EDT...GODWIN AROUND 235 PM EDT...FALCON AROUND 240 PM
EDT...ERWIN AROUND 245 PM EDT...DUNN AROUND 250 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE
WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS. LIGHT OBJECTS
SUCH AS TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND AWNINGS COULD
BE TOSSED AROUND.

BLAES