Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
247 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...

THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE REST OF
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FIRST OFF... ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
IN THE FOOTHILLS AND AS FAR EAST AS THE SW PIEDMONT AS OF 2 PM. WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE TROUGH AND MLCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG APPEAR TO BE THE REASONS FOR THE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO LOWER WITH DEEP MIXING
ESTABLISHED. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL PREVENT CAPE
VALUES FROM INCREASING ANY MORE. WILL SHOW A 20 POP (ISOLATED
COVERAGE) FOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY
ON RADAR. FURTHER EAST...WILL LEAVE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DRY AS
CAPPING EVIDENT THIS MORNING ON THE MHX SOUNDING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT AS MODELS DO NOT ERODE THE CAP
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE AT CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. AS MIXING IS
LOST...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE
OVER THE TN VALLEY... NOTED WITH THE COOL POOL OVER NASHVILLE THIS
MORNING...WILL SKIRT THE NW PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE FOOTHILLS THAT COULD THEN WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE NW PIEDMONT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO PLAY AN IMPORTANT
ROLE IN DETERMINING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS EVENING...AND THAT IS
VERY HARD TO DETAIL AT THIS JUNCTURE. WILL MAINTAIN THE THEME OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST... WITH POPS INCREASING TO LOW END CHANCE IN AREAS
NORTH AND WEST... ONLY SHOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTHEAST
WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE NO APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT. AREAS IN
THE SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE TO RELY ALMOST SOLELY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MOVING INTO THE AREA. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 06Z WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. LOWS VERY MILD TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A PERSISTENT SW WIND. LOWS 69-73.

AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A BROAD
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WILL KEEP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATERS RESPOND WITH
VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST
SOME MODEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SETS UP OVER NORTHWESTER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE AREA BECOME
POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. THE JET
POSITION IS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ON THE NAM AS COMPARED TO THE GFS.
AT THIS JUNCTURE IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT ANY LOCATIONS MORE FAVORED
FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN ITS JET
PLACEMENT...THEN THE NW PIEDMONT WOULD SEE A GREATER COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT CERTAIN AND WOULD PREFER TO SHOW A HIGH END
CHANCE (SCATTERED COVERAGE) ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 20 KT... SO CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD
REMAIN PULSE IN NATURE. THEREFORE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN GO A LONG WAY IN DETERMINING STORM COVERAGE AND
LOCATION. WITH LIGHT WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND STORM MOTIONS OF ONLY
AROUND 10 KT... THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT... BUT LACK OF SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE
A WIDESPREAD EVENT. GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
HOLD TEMPS DOWN COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHS 87-92.

HAVE A HAPPY AND SAFE FOURTH OF JULY

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

SUMMARY:
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD (INCLUDING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS)...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING ON SUN/MON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING JUST TO OUR WEST OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS...KEEPING A MOIST SOUTHERLY/SW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN OVER THE CAROLINAS. FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NC SHOW
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.75-2.00 RANGE THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. WITH PWAT VALUES THIS HIGH AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...INSTABILITY WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE PRESENT
AND ACCOUNTED FOR. AS FAR AS LIFT IS CONCERNED...BEING LOCATED JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST...WE WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...IN ADDITION TO
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND LIFTING
NE/ENE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TOUGH TO PICK OUT ANY AREA IN PARTICULAR
FOR AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SINCE THIS MAY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TIMING/TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND/OR WHERE THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS LOCATED. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED
TO ADVERTISE MID CHANCE POPS (40%) ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SAT NIGHT WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER...WITH 50% CHANCES DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
INSTABILITY...AND LOW CHANCE (30%) POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING/DEAMPLIFYING. LOW TEMPS SAT/SUN NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MAKING IT INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND WHETHER OR NOT SOME LOCATIONS SEE LOWER 90S WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION IS PRESENT.

GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN
AREAS. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS
PROGGED TO GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH 700MB...
INCREASING TO MAYBE 25-30 KNOTS IN THE MID-LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO
DEVELOP...AND EXPECT THAT ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE OF THE
PULSE/ISOLATED VARIETY...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IN
THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT:
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DEAMPLIFY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS IT LIFTS ENE/NE ACROSS THE LOWER
MID-ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE WEAKENING...FCST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY MOIST PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.75 TO
2.00 RANGE...WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. HAVE THEREFORE
DECIDED TO ADVERTISE MID-CHANCE (40%) POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME PEAK-HEATING HOURS. A FEW STORMS
MAY BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE (20%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN CONTINUED HIGH
PWAT VALUES AND THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL BY THIS
TIME...HOWEVER...ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY KEEP GOING WELL PAST
SUNSET WITH THE HELP OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...AND THIS IS WHY THE
SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE LEFT IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS MAKING IT INTO THE LOWER 90S IF GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE BERMUDA RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND FL THROUGH MID WEEK...WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE US/CANADA BORDER ALLOWS THE WESTERLIES TO DIP A BIT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/NORTHEAST. VERY LITTLE
CHANGES AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE ATLANTIC-CENTERED SURFACE HIGH
HOLDING IN PLACE AND EXTENDING WSW INTO THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
SECTIONS...WITH A PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/WRN NC AND
PWAT VALUES REMAINING IN THE 120-140% OF NORMAL RANGE. AS MUCH AS I
WOULD LIKE TO BE ABLE TO DISCERN ONE DAY AS BEING BETTER THAN
ANOTHER FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AT THIS RANGE AND WITH MODEL VARIATION IN THE DETAILS...IT
REMAINS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE (30%)
POPS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
GFS/ECMWF THICKNESSES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. -GIH/VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...

IN GENERAL... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT... BEST
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AT THE TRIAD TERMINALS. IN THIS
REGION...THE MID LEVEL CAP IS WEAKER AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE TN
VALLEY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING
FROM CONVECTION OVER THE FOOTHILLS MAY ALSO BECOME A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTION...SO WILL INCLUDE A CB AT GSO/INT
AND AS FAR EAST AS RDU FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD WANE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

WINDS AT 2 KFT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. WHILE WE MAY
FALL SHORT OF EXACT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA...AT LEAST 15-20
KT OF LLWS WILL BE PRESENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD AFFECT SMALLER
AIRCRAFT AND GENERAL AVIATION INTERESTS.

AREAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THERE WILL
BE NO MID LEVEL CAP AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS
PLENTIFUL. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NC STARTING ROUGHLY AROUND 16Z TOMORROW AND THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE CB AT 16Z AT
ALL TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE CONVECTION.

CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JFB
NEAR TERM...JFB
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...GIH/VINCENT
AVIATION...JFB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
605 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-051015-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
WILSON-
605 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN... MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR... VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG... PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. THIS RISK OF
STRONG STORMS IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE NIGHT... AND LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 MAY BE AFFECTED BY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

PEOPLE ENGAGING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FROM VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG. OTHERWISE... HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089-051015-
JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
605 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT... SANDHILLS... AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. A
STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG... WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH...
HOWEVER WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG. OTHERWISE... HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

GIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
910 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S CHAPEL HILL         35.91N 79.04W
07/04/2008                   ORANGE             NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            UTILITY POLE DOWN ON RIDGE RD IN CHAPEL HILL.

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
914 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W CHAPEL HILL         35.93N 79.07W
07/04/2008                   ORANGE             NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN AT ESTES DRIVE AND HILLSBOROUGH STREET.

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
916 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             1 N CHAPEL HILL         35.94N 79.04W
07/04/2008  E1.00 INCH       ORANGE             NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT ALLARD ROAD AND LYONS ROAD.

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
923 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N CHAPEL HILL         35.94N 79.04W
07/04/2008  M1.00 INCH       ORANGE             NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IN APPROXIMATELY 15 MINUTES AT
            ALLARD ROAD AND LYONS ROAD.

&&

SMITH

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