Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED AN AREA OF DRIER AIR ALOFT
CROSSING WESTERN NC LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. 12Z GSO
SOUNDING LIKELY SAMPLED SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR ABOVE 600MB. DRIER
AIR HAS MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AT 18Z. NEEDLESS TO
SAY....INSTABILITY AXIS LIES EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WITH LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENCE BEGINNING TO INCREASE EAST OF THE DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. MIXED LAYER CAPES PROGGED TO BE 1000-1500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. UPSTAIRS...DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING THE
MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY PROGGED TO INCREASE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
6.5-7.25 DEG C/KM THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...WE WILL BE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 90-100KT JET EXITING OFF THE DELMARVA. WITH THE
STRONGER THAN NORMAL DYNAMICS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE THAN NORMAL NUMBER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH THE MAIN
THREAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

DYNAMICS BEGIN TO WANE AFTER 03Z-06Z WEST-TO-EAST...SO WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS IN SIMILAR PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...

L/W TROUGH LIFTS NE TUE. RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL DRY OUT AND STABILIZE ATMOSPHERE
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...ABUNDANT SUN AND
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE 1410S SUGGEST MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90.

FOR WED/THU...MID AND UPPER AIR PATTERN SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR HOT
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE W-E ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE H7
AND H5 RIDGE AND THE POSITION OF THE 250MB ANTI CYCLONE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE REGION ARE STRONG INDICATORS FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
FORTUNATELY...850MB TEMPS HOVER IN THE 16-18 DEG C RANGE WED...THEN
WARM TO NEAR 20 DEG C THU. BASED ON THIS AND THICKNESSES IN THE
1420S WED...AND 1430-1435 THU...WILL LEAN FORECAST MAX TEMPS TO
LOW/MID 90S WED....AND SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S (POSSIBLY UPPER 90S)
THU. DEWPOINTS EACH AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH RIDGE SHOULD LOWER INTO THE
50S WED AND NEAR 60 THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SE
U.S. WILL CAUSE HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRI INTO
SAT. EXPECT TO SEE A MODEST INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION FRI
INTO SATURDAY AS SLY FLOW ON TH BACK SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
PULLS TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO THE REGION.

FRO SUN INTO MON...DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME AMPLIFICATION OF L/W TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. HOWEVER, THE EXPECTED TIMING DIFFERENCES AND DEGREE
AMPLIFICATION EXIST. WITH TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
POTENTIAL FOR LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS THERE IS PLENTY OF
TIME TO FINE TUNE. MODEL SOLUTIONS PAINT DRIER AIR MASS OVERHEAD
MON AS L/W TROUGH EDGES EAST. THIS IS LIKELY PREMATURE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER WE RE TALKING
BOUT DAY 7 SO WILL KEEP POPS AOB 20%.

MAX TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY SUN/MON DUE TO
PRESENCE OF TROUGH ALOFT. BEFORE THEN....MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NC INTO
UPSTATE SC AS OF 2 PM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS
THROUGH 6 PM REACHING THE VCTY OF FAY BY 4 PM. CONVECTION SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP AND APPROACH RDU BY 4PM AND RWI BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 40KT WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH SOME
NEARLY CONTINUOUS LIGHTING AND SMALL HAIL. THERE IS A DEWPOINT
DISCONTINUITY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT INT AND GSO. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT A LITTLE, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS IN PLACE THERE SHOULD STILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 4 PM
THROUGH 9 PM. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DOES NOT SWING THROUGH THE
AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SECOND ROUND
CONVECTION...AFTER 7 PM ESPECIALLY FROM RDU EAST TO FAY AND RWI.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON
A NORTHWEST WIND AFTER 3 AM AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE SOME CLEARING SKIES. CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WILL BE ALL VFR
WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND AND NO THUNDERSTORMS. -JO

LOOKING AHEAD... THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY... AND ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO EXPAND OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AND PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH LATE WEEK.-MWS

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...JO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
306 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

NCZ007>011-021>025-038>040-241915-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
306 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...
PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER SHOULD REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS
SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

NCZ026>028-041>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-241915-
FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-
LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
306 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 599 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS
SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
415 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

NCZ088-089-232100-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
415 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CUMBERLAND
COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 415 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTOVER...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 7 MPH. THIS STORMS HAS PRODUCED UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN NORTH OF
FAYETTEVILLE ALONG RAMSEY STREET UP TO THE FAYETTEVILLE OUTER LOOP.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY PONDING ON PORTIONS OF RAMSEY STREET.
AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT INTERSTATE 95...THE
FAYETTEVILLE OUTER LOOP AND HIGHWAY 301. MOTORISTS SHOULD REDUCE
SPEED TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...EASTOVER...WADE.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH DURING THE
NEXT HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH
CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

JO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
418 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

NCZ038-232045-
DAVIDSON-
418 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
DAVIDSON COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 418 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ARCADIA...OR ABOUT OVER MOCKSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR ARCADIA AROUND 425 PM EDT...
WELCOME AROUND 430 PM EDT...THOMASVILLE AROUND 445 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING... AND PEA SIZED HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
423 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

NCZ075-086-232115-
HOKE-MOORE-
423 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MOORE AND
NORTHERN HOKE COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 423 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PINEBLUFF...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN PINES...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORM INCLUDE...ASHLEY HEIGHTS...
ABERDEEN...AND...PINEBLUFF.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...
AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

DONT WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. INSTEAD...MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES
OR THE FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY
FROM YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH DURING THE
NEXT HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS... DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION
OF THESE STORMS. MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH CAUTION TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

BSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
501 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

NCZ077-232200-
HARNETT-
501 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS HARNETT COUNTY THROUGH 600
PM EDT...

AT 501 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
TIMBERLAKE...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTH OF FORT BRAGG...MOVING EAST AT 13
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LILLINGTON...ERWIN...
AND...BUIES CREEK.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH DURING THE
NEXT HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. MOTORISTS DRIVING SOUTH OF
LILLINGTON ALONG HIGHWAY 210 AND HIGHWAY 401 SHOULD DRIVE WITH
CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

JO