Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...

EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 23Z AS A MINOR S/W LIFT E-NE ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST
SPC/MSAS ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE REGION
WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPES (1000-1500 J/KG) AND LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
ARE BEST. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WANE AFTER 01Z AS S/W BEGINS
IN TO SHEAR OUT IN WEAK 500MB CONFLUENCE FLOW OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS REGION WILL BE IN NOSE OF 300MB JET...SUPPLYING
SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE IN AN AIR MASS WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
1.5-1.8 INCHES. RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRESENCE OF THE L/W
TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLE AS A SERIES OF S/WS ROTATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO ONE
PARTICULAR S/W OVER THE TN VALLEY MON INTO MON NIGHT THAT
AMPLIFIES/DIGS THE L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LATE MON THROUGH EARLY
TUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESS
OF 6 OR 6.5 DEG C/KM MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN
MINUS 2 AND MINUS 4 DEG C LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAKER S/W ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION DURING MAX
HEATING. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALOFT AS REGION WILL BE IN THE FAVORED
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 75KT H3 JET OVER ERN VA. ALSO...850MB
CONFLUENCE PROGGED TO BE BETTER COMPARED TO TODAY BUT BEST
CONFLUENCE WILL BE OVER SC. AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500J/KG PROGGED FOR THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAIN WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF ENERGY TO THE STORMS. MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO LOW CONSIDERING THE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. WENT
SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL NVA SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO NO MORE THAN
ISOLATED...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE STORMS EXPECTED LATE MON AND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST WELL INTO MON NIGHT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF RESPECTABLE
DYNAMICS ALOFT AS REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 300MB 100KT JET
CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

L/W TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE/LIFT E-NE TUESDAY. DECENT DYNAMICS CROSS
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE FAR EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED. IF MODELS
BECOME WETTER...POPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
AND EAST OF I-95.

WITH WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN SPITE OF THE EXPECTED PERIODS OF
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WHILE THE JET
STREAM WILL STRETCH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. ANY S/W IN THIS
JET STREAM OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE MAY BE ABLE TO BRUSH THE FORECAST
AREA AND TRIGGER MORE THAN USUAL SUMMER TIME VARIETY CONVECTION. THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BEST S/W ENERGY REMAINS WELL NW-N
OF THE REGION UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
POTENTIAL WAVE OF SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE WHICH MAY INFRINGE UPON THE
REGION. THE TIMING THAT FAR OUT QUESTIONABLE. THUS APPEARS THAT
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SLIM TO NONE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
PROJECTED TO COVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...

CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACHED. LOW LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE
WEAK...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN
BY UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. MAIN FEATURES ARE AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA...WHICH WILL BE MOVING EAST AND
SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE COURTESY OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER JET OFF THE NORTHERN NC COAST. CONVECTION RESULTING FROM THESE
FACTORS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. EXPECT
THE WIDER-SCALE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH
ACTIVITY PERSISTING IN THE EAST (RWI/FAY) THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHEN THE
SHORT WAVE EXITS THE AREA.

WARM AND SOUPY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...THUS EXPECT FOG AT RWI
AND FAY OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PREDAWN...
AND MIGHT SEE MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT OTHER SITES THAT RECEIVE
RAIN.

LOOKING AHEAD...LONG WAVE TROF WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND AMPLIFY
THROUGH MONDAY. AS PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROF AND ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE MORE
MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE MS
VALLEY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...MLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-221000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKLES OR QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. SINCE THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
LESS THAN 20 MPH...THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE URBAN AREAS. A FEW STORMS IN
THE SANDHILLS AND THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
237 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

NCZ083-211930-
ANSON-
237 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ANSON COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM EDT...

AT 237 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WHITE STORE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF WADESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL PASS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF WADESBORO AROUND 300
PM...AND REACH LILESVILLE AROUND 315 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. PEOPLE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SHOULD MOVE INDOORS IF THUNDER IS HEARD.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
319 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

NCZ075-212015-
MOORE-
319 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MOORE COUNTY THROUGH 415 PM
EDT...

AT 319 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FOXFIRE...OR ABOUT 11 MILES WEST OF SOUTHERN PINES...MOVING EAST AT
17 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR TAYLORTOWN AROUND 340 PM EDT...
SOUTHERN PINES AROUND 355 PM EDT...WHISPERING PINES AROUND 405 PM
EDT...VASS AROUND 415 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

MWS