Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WILL
PROMOTE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES OUR AREA. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM...

WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS MIXED OUT NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS...DROPPING
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST OF I-95.

APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NW SHOULD BE ABLE TO INITIATE
AND SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. WITH POCKET OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB...STILL POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WITH THE STORMS. FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE FAVORABLE RANGE FOR LARGE HAIL AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 00Z-02Z...COINCIDING WITH THE
SETTING SUN AND PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH.

AFTER 06Z MON...ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND EXITING TROUGH WILL ADVECT
DRIER MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR BY A DAYBREAK WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING N-NE BY DAYBREAK.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM...

NORTHEAST FLOW MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY AS 850MB ANTICYCLONE CROSSES
REGION. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN AS AIRMASS RATHER DRY FOR EARLY JUNE.
THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (MID
80S).

MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY MORNING. IF NEAR SURFACE FLOW MORE E-SE THAN
SOUTH...MAY SEE UPGLIDE RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. IN ADDITION...500MB SHEAR AXIS (REMAINS OF
CONVECTION FROM THE PLAINS STATES) PROGGED TO CROSS REGION TUESDAY.
MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE PIEDMONT. MAX TEMPS TUE SHOULD
BE AS WARM OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MON.

TUE NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WAA OCCURRING. MIXING OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARM NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S COMMON. CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM SUNDAY...

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A WESTERN STATES TROUGH THAT
WILL SHARPLY AMPLIFY.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...SEEN BY STEEP
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES... SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST UNDER THE MEAN
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...
THE POSITION OF THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY
WIND TO BRING INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS SOAR TO NEAR 20C BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD
EASILY RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. COMBINE THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70... AND THE
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR LARGE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. MLCAPES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG...
AND COULD BE HIGHER IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY. EITHER WAY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN PEAK HEATING AND SOME OF
THESE COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE IF THE CURRENTLY INDICATED
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATE PARAMETERS COME TO FRUITION. WILL
MAINTAIN A 30 POP FOR NOW GIVEN THE LACK OF A LARGE SCALE TRIGGER.
HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY WED AFTERNOON THAT COULD SERVE TO BOOST
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ONE IS CAUTIOUS NOT TO KEY IN ON SUCH A
SUBTLE FEATURE AND THIS STAGE AND WILL WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL
CONTINUITY BEFORE POSSIBLY RAISING POPS.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS WE GO INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER AND THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WARM. WITH A LACK OF FORCING MECHANISMS...
ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN BE ANTICIPATED...AND THIS WILL
LIKELY BE HARDER TO COME BY AS THE WEEKEND NEARS WITH A MID LEVEL
CAP BECOMING MORE EVIDENT. THE PRESENCE OF A 590DM 500 MB RIDGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
THU-SUN. ECMWF SUGGESTS EVEN WARMER READINGS WITH THICKNESSES
SOARING PAST 1430M. HOWEVER... CASUAL OBSERVATIONS OF THE ECMWF IN
THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS NOTED SOMEWHAT OF A HIGH BIAS ON THICKNESSES
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. THEREFORE... WILL NOT RAISE HIGHS ANYMORE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM SUNDAY...

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BUT MARGINALLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE AN
ENVIRONMENT SUITED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE/LIFT WILL BE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS REGION IN VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI.
MENTIONED VCTS THROUGH 00Z FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO FOR MVFR/IFR CEILING VISIBILITY IN CONVECTION ONCE THE SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES REGION LATE NIGHT.
INCREASING ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THESE FEATURES WILL STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AND ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTER 12Z
MON...EXPECT A LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 8-12KTS. AT
MOST...EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS BETWEEN 5000-7500 FT.

LOOKING AHEAD... LOW STRATUS IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY AT WESTERN TAF SITES... AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
DEPARTING LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. OTHERWISE... ASIDE FROM
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...JFB
AVIATION...WSS/MWS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1127 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-020900-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1127 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST OVER SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE SANDHILLS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS SUGGEST AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD
OF DAMAGING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9
PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 1 OR 2 PM.
SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY TUNED AND REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

WSS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
534 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

NCZ022-023-012200-
ALAMANCE-GUILFORD-
534 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST GUILFORD
AND NORTHERN ALAMANCE COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 534 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 7 MILES
NORTH OF ALTAMAHAW...OR ABOUT OVER CAMP SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR UNION RIDGE AROUND 550 PM
EDT...PLEASANT GROVE AROUND 555 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

DONT WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. INSTEAD...MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES
OR THE FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY
FROM YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

JFB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
540 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

NCZ009-010-026-012215-
FRANKLIN-VANCE-WARREN-
540 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WARREN...SOUTHERN
VANCE AND EXTREME NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 540 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
GILLBURG...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HENDERSON...MOVING EAST AT
22 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR  RURAL SOUTHWESTERN WARREN
COUNTY AROUND 550 PM EDT. RURAL SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTY AROUND 600 PM
EDT. RURAL NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY AROUND 610 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

DONT WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. INSTEAD...MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES
OR THE FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY
FROM YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

JFB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
546 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOFFMAN                 35.03N 79.55W
06/01/2008                   RICHMOND           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORT A TREE DOWN ON A POWERLINE IN
            HOFFMAN...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.

&&

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
548 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

NCZ011-012215-
HALIFAX-
548 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS HALIFAX COUNTY THROUGH 615
PM EDT...

AT 548 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
LITTLETON...OR ABOUT 12 MILES WEST OF ROANOKE RAPIDS...MOVING EAST AT
36 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR SOUTH WELDON AROUND 605 PM
EDT...HALIFAX AROUND 610 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

DONT WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. INSTEAD...MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES
OR THE FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY
FROM YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

JFB