Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Raleigh, NC

000 
WWUS52 KRAH 202243
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
643 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

NCC093-165-202300-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080520T2300Z/
SCOTLAND NC-HOKE NC-
643 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR HOKE AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES...

AT 638 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
RAEFORD...MOVING EAST AT 46 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROCKFISH BY 650 PM EDT

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 
WIND DAMAGE IN MCCAIN...ALONG HIGHWAY 211. IF YOU ARE IN ITS 
PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE 
HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD 
MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY 
FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3481 7967 3482 7961 3485 7962 3490 7957
      3494 7958 3502 7951 3518 7928 3520 7924
      3517 7910 3504 7910 3495 7903 3482 7919
      3482 7932 3477 7931 3464 7944
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 291DEG 40KT 3493 7917

$$

VINCENT

000 
WWUS52 KRAH 202259
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
658 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

NCC093-165-202308-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080520T2300Z/
SCOTLAND NC-HOKE NC-
658 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HOKE AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES 
EXPIRES AT 700 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA INTO 
CUMBERLAND AND ROBESON COUNTIES...THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

IF YOU EXPERIENCED SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS PLEASE PASS THE INFORMATION ALONG TO YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3481 7967 3482 7961 3485 7962 3490 7957
      3494 7958 3502 7951 3518 7928 3520 7924
      3517 7910 3504 7910 3495 7903 3482 7919
      3482 7932 3477 7931 3464 7944
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 291DEG 40KT 3487 7898

$$

VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT...IN UNISON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING
IN STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z AS A COLD FRONT
DRIFTS SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AIR MASS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH AN AXIS OF SURFACE LIFTED INDICES
-6/-7 C OVER THE REGION. 850-500MB WINDS REMAIN ROBUST WITH VAD WIND
PROFILES DEPICTING 35-50KTS OF WIND THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH 60-65KTS
BETWEEN 12000-14000FT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN HOVERING BETWEEN 7-7.5 DEG C/KM
WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 8-8.5 DEG C/KM. THIS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE
W-NW. DUE TO LAPSE RATES AND FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 12000 FT...MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

BY 00Z...EXPECT MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION TO LIE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
64...EXITING THE REGION BETWEEN 03-05Z. SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
BETWEEN 00Z-02Z AS WINDS ALOFT SUBSIDE AND AIR MASS STABILIZES DUE
TO LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WILL ADVECT ON W-NW FLOW
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISHES FROM
WEST-TO-EAST AFTER 05Z. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY BETWEEN 09-12Z. MINS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NW AND FAR NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS 315 PM TUESDAY...
A STRONG...QUASI-STATIONARY CLOSED LOW WILL GYRATE OVER SE
CANADA/JAMES BAY THROUGH THURSDAY.... BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON FRIDAY. SHEARED VORTICITY
ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DISTURBANCE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION...A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES INCREASING TO 8.25 TO  9.0 C/KM ACROSS THE NE COASTAL
PLAINS...WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PEAKING AT AROUND 6.5 C/KM.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE WRF AND GFS KEEPS MIXED LAYER AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES AWFULLY WEAK (<250 J/KG)...WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A 5 KFT DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...FROM FROM THE DEEP W/NWLY
ALOFT. COULD SEE A QUICK/ISOLATED PASSING SHOWER...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT.

WITH THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CONUS...MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS SOME SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISCREPANCIES IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY PERIOD...THAT COULD RESULT IN HARD TO TIMED MESOSCALE
CONVECTION.

STARTING WITH THE GFS...FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS THE GFS
HAS BEEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS)...NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF A STRONG
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS/WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. THE 850-300 MEAN WIND FLOW...WOULD ALLOWED
THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE NW TO SE INTO THE REGION. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST INSTABILITY AND HIGHER
PWATS...REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALONG THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY
ACROSS GA AND SC.

THE NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR A DIFFERENT
REASON...AS IT DEVELOPS STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY AXIS...WHEN A SHEARED S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO...LIFTS NORTH THE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME CENTRAL NC LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT AS SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MODEL FORECAST LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MOS STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS 75 TO 80. LOWS 50 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM...
THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADA MARITIMES BREAKS DOWN BY
SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY MEMORIAL DAY...AND WILL
MARK THE RETURN OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. DRY FORECAST WITH ABSENCE OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...
BAND OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A E-SE MOVING SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...THROUGH THE SANDHILLS...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN BY 00Z WED. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CONVECTION. WIND GUSTS NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-45 KTS IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS.
AWAY FROM THE STORMS...WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS WILL BE COMMON.
EXPECT CONVECTION IN THE TRIAD VICINITY UNTIL 21Z. AROUND KRWI AND
KRDU...CONVECTION EXPECTED BETWEEN 20-23Z. IN KFAY...EXPECT
CONVECTION BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.

W-NW FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE EXITING MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL USHER DRIER MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST-TO-EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WED. WILL SEE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
FIELD DEVELOP DUE TO HEATING WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 4500-6000FT.
SURFACE WINDS WED GENERALLY 250-280 DEGREES WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
251 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-211000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
251 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 327 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
603 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     HAIL             4 N COATS CROSSROADS    35.58N 78.56W
05/20/2008  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSTON           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED SHILOH ROAD AND HOLLY DRIVE.

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
604 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HAIL             6 NNW COATS CROSSROADS  35.59N 78.60W
05/20/2008  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSTON           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT HWY 42 AND HWY 50.

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
612 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             SMITHFIELD              35.51N 78.34W
05/20/2008  E0.88 INCH       JOHNSTON           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL HAIL REPORTED NEAR 1-95 AND HWY 70 IN SMITHFIELD.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
614 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             6 NW SMITHFIELD         35.57N 78.42W
05/20/2008  E1.25 INCH       JOHNSTON           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.25 INCH HAIL REPORTED BY A SPOTTER ON ALTAVISTA
            ROAD...SOUTHEAST OF CLAYTON.

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
616 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             CUMNOCK                 35.54N 79.23W
05/20/2008  E0.88 INCH       LEE                NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN CUMNOCK BY THE FIRE
            DEPARTMENT.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
617 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     HAIL             FUQUAY-VARINA           35.59N 78.79W
05/20/2008  E0.75 INCH       WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT OLD BARON DRIVE AND OLD
            LIVERPOOL DRIVE.

&&

SMITH