Frost Advisory 3, NWS Raleigh, NC

Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT... AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT REMAINS THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR WESTERN SANDHILLS. INITIAL BLUSTERY N TO
NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FACTORS FAVORING A
FROST/FREEZE INCLUDE THE LIGHTENING WINDS (ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
CWA CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS)... MOS GUIDANCE LOWS NEAR 32 DEGREES
(AND HISTORICALLY SPEAKING THESE HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING TOO
WARM)... AND CLEAR SKIES. MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE TODAYS WINDS
AND VERTICAL MIXING AND THEIR NEAR-SURFACE DRYING EFFECTS... THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT 2-4 KT BREEZE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LIGHTLY MIXED AND LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE DROP... AND THE WARM 4-INCH
GROUND TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL SITTING IN THE 50S AND COULD
LEAD TO WARMING FROM BELOW. LOOKING AT THIS MORNINGS UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS... TEMPERATURES DROPPED TO 30-32
DEGREES FOR 3-4 HOURS AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS. WEIGHING ALL OF THESE
FACTORS... WE DECIDED TO BE CAUTIOUS AND POST A FREEZE WARNING FOR
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT... WITH A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT... FROM 4-8 AM. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN
SUCH SPRINGTIME FROST/FREEZE SETUPS... THERE WILL NO DOUBT BE LARGE
TEMPERATURE RANGES ACROSS SMALL AREAS... AND RURAL AND LOW-LYING
AREAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
SUFFICIENT SHELTERING FOR FROST FORMATION. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF
PATCHY FROST EVERYWHERE TO COVER FOR THOSE ISOLATED OUTLYING
LOCATIONS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH LOWS 31-35 ACROSS THE
CWA. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...
VERY QUIET WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND FOR MIDWEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE... BUILDING SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN
THE MID LEVELS... AND A VERY DRY COLUMN. THERE IS LITTLE OPPORTUNITY
FOR ANY APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THURSDAY. THICKNESSES CLIMB
STEADILY FROM AROUND 30 M BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY MORNING TO JUST
5-10 M BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY MORNING... WHICH WITH CONSIDERABLE
SUNSHINE EQUATES TO 65-68 WEDNESDAY AND 73-77 THURSDAY. THE COOLER
READINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE EAST WHERE A COOLER FETCH WILL
PERSIST ABOUT THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

QUESTIONS PERSIST INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE AS TO THE FATE OF THE MID
LEVEL VORTEX... NOW AN OPEN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S....
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE PLAINS IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EVOLVES INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK EXTENDING FROM THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...
AND THUS THE PLAINS VORTEX SHOULD SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT HEADS
EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. DISAGREEMENT PERSISTS BETWEEN THE
FARTHER-NORTH TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OF THE GFS... WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NAEFS... AND
THE FARTHER-SOUTH TRACK OF THE ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN. ON THE GFS THE VORTEX ENDS UP OVER PA BY 00Z MONDAY WHILE
THE ECMWF TAKES IT TO NEAR CHARLOTTE. WITH EITHER MODEL THERE IS
ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW OF SUFFICIENT RETURN FLOW AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP... ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER
CHANCE WITH MORE OF AN ATLANTIC INFLOW NOTED AT 850 MB. GIVEN THE
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION... WILL HOLD
ONTO CHANCE POPS STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY
MORNING... BUT WILL LEAVE IN A LOW CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EXPONENTIALLY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES ARE EQUALLY UP IN THE AIR SO TO SPEAK... AS MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. WITH CONSENSUS (ALTHOUGH WIDELY
SPACED) THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERED BY CLOUDS... WILL
HOLD READINGS WITHIN A CATEGORY OF SEASONAL NORMALS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
MAINTAINING ITS HOLD OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG WINDS ALOFT AROUND 6 THOUSAND
FEET WILL MIX DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING... THUS WE CAN EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING... TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
...MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY... COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. -RHJ

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007-
021>025-038>040-073-074-083.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ008>010-
026-041-075-076-084.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...RHJ

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