Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Pueblo, CO

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 052200
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
400 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2008

COC009-052245-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-080505T2245Z/
BACA CO-
400 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MDT
FOR EASTERN BACA COUNTY...

AT 353 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS CENTERED 11 MILES 
SOUTH OF VILAS...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD...WITH ANOTHER 
PORTION OF THE STORM LOCATED JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF STONINGTON. 
THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WALSH.
  STONINGTON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3708 10255 3722 10268 3749 10246 3762 10208
      3718 10203 3714 10208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 251DEG 22KT 3722 10240

$$

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 052218
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
418 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2008

COC009-052245-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-080505T2245Z/
BACA CO-
418 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL BACA COUNTY...

AT 415 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS CENTERED 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF STONINGTON...OR 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SAUNDERS 
ELEVATOR...AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STONINGTON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3721 10245 3734 10227 3744 10207 3743 10205
      3736 10206 3735 10204 3718 10203 3714 10208
      3710 10239
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 253DEG 24KT 3720 10223

$$

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 052237
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
437 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2008

COC009-052248-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-080505T2245Z/
BACA CO-
437 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL BACA COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 445 PM MDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3721 10245 3734 10227 3744 10207 3743 10205
      3736 10206 3735 10204 3718 10203 3714 10208
      3710 10239
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 253DEG 24KT 3724 10207

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
334 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

CURRENTLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE
COLORADO...KANSAS...NEW MEXICO AND OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE TO FORM. THE CONDITIONS WITH GOOD LOW
0-1 KM SHEAR AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA THERE WILL BE LITTLE WEATHER.

.TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
APPROXIMATELY 8 PM THIS EVENING. THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS SYSTEM. THERE ALSO SEEMS TO BE SOME CONTRIBUTING POTENTIAL
VORTICITY. TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS BETTER MOISTURE THOUGH TOMORROW
LOOKS TO HAVE THE BETTER DYNAMICS.

.TOMORROW...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AS
THE LOW MOVES EASTERLY. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL BE ALONG OUR BORDER
WITH GOODLAND WITH THE BACKING WINDS FROM THE LOW AND IN THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA DEPENDING IF THE DRYLINE SHIFTS
WESTERLY. IF THE DRYLINE STAYS IN KANSAS THEN THERE MAY BE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. CERU

.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW IN BRINGING THE PRIMARY UPPER
LOW THROUGH SERN NM EARLY WED MORNING. THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
OF A SECONDARY CIRCULATION OVR SERN CO AT THE SAME TIME...BUT THE
MORE SRN TRACK ACCOUNTS FOR LESSER QPF IN THE MORE RECENT MODEL
RUNS. WILL SEE ABOUT 6-9 H WHERE H7 WINDS ARE NERLY...FROM AROUND
09Z TO 15Z WED...AND THIS WILL BE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY OF SOME
SCT MODERATE SHOWERS OVR THE ERN MTS AND PLAINS. COULD LOCALLY SEE
.25 TO .50 INCHES OF QPF. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...ABOVE 10K
FT...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD THUNDER THRU WED AS UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH...THEN MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN OF THUNDER THROUGH FRIDAY
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS TO THE NORTH.

FIRST OF THESE QUICK-MOVING WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THU-THU
NITE...THEN A SECOND ON SATURDAY AND A THIRD MON NITE. TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT HIGHEST
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVR THE NRN ZONES AND HYR ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS DURING THIS
TIME. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...THERE ARE SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTY. THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL AND SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS NEAR 60 MPH AROUND THESE
STORMS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

14/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
731 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2008

COZ058>089-093>099-061330-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
731 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER, WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY
THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.  FARTHER WEST, ISOLATED, LESS
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND
LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS. SOME STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY BE MOSTLY DRY, PRODUCING LIGHTNING
AND WIND, BUT LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,
ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH LIGHTNING...HAIL GENERALLY UNDER 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER...BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AT TIMES BEING THE
PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL THREATS. ALSO ON TUESDAY...THE EASTERN
PLAINS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY
AND ESPECIALLY PIKES PEAK...WHERE AROUND 6 INCHES MAY BE NOTED
FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THEN INTO OKLAHOMA. LIGHTER
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY OVER SECTIONS OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.